Red Alert

Posts Tagged ‘Retirement’

Tax cuts or Super?

Posted by Chris Hipkins on July 27th, 2010

Over at Policy Progress David Choat has written up a few observations on the future affordability of New Zealand Superannuation, based on presentations at the recent Retirement Income Policy and Intergenerational Equity Conference. Choat looks at various projections of the cost of the ‘retirement boom’ and some of the alternative options. He concludes by essentially arguing we have a choice: change our current entitlements or increase taxes to keep them as they are.

That conclusion highlights the folly of the arguments people like Don Brash have been putting forward. Brash argues that current Super entitlements are unaffordable. Fullstop. Brash and his contemporaries in National have spent years arguing that massive tax cuts are affordable and necessary. They’ve conveniently overlooked one of the biggest longterm implications – less money to pay for the baby boomer’s retirement!

I want to see New Zealand Superannuation remain as it is, a universal entitlement from the age of 65. But John Key’s promise to resign rather than cut it looks pretty hollow given his total lack of a plan for how to pay for it. In 10-15 years time when the crunch comes, Key will be off sunning himself in Hawaii while future generations work out how to plug the massive hole he and his crew have left us with.


Latest stats prove Bill English wrong

Posted by Chris Hipkins on May 26th, 2010

Bill English made the wrong decision to cut contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (commonly referred to as the Cullen Fund). He had an opportunity to fix that mistake in this year’s Budget. He didn’t take it. In fact he’s even gone back on his promise to resume contributions once the Crown accounts move back into surplus. He’d rather leave the cupboard bare for future generations.

The latest population projections released by Statistics New Zealand clearly show just how short-sighted that decision is. The share of workers aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 12 percent in 2006 to 21 percent in 2061. More than double the number of people will be claiming NZ Super, not to mention the extra costs in healthcare. Instead of preparing for that huge demographic shift, John Key and Bill English have prioritised tax cuts that disproportionately go to those on the highest incomes.

English claims that he would be borrowing to make contributions to the fund. But he seems very happy to borrow to pay for tax cuts. In fact had he continued to contribute to the fund over the past year, he’d have made the Crown a tidy little profit. Since Budget 2009 the Super Fund has increased by $3.6 billion, and in the nine months to 31 March it gained $891 million more than Treasury forecast on its investment portfolio.

We all need to face some cold hard realities here. The ‘retirement boom’ will really start to kick in over the next 10-15 years. Absent significant changes, we can’t afford it. Those enjoying tax cuts today may get a rude shock in another decade when the then government has to make a tough decision between cutting entitlements or significantly increasing taxes to pay for them. No doubt by then our smiling and waving PM will have skipped off to Hawaii leaving that particular mess for someone else to sort out…


Peter Harris on NZ Super

Posted by Chris Hipkins on May 13th, 2010

Peter Harris has done an interesting guest post over at Policy Progress on New Zealand Superannuation. Peter puts forward a compelling argument that the Brash Taskforce was wrong to argue that NZ Super is overly generous. He draws on data that shows average post-tax pensions in OECD countries to be about 70% of earnings after tax. Here in NZ it is 42%, making us the 5th lowest in the OECD.

Peter argues that the universal nature of New Zealand Superannuation makes it more equitable than equivalent arrangements in Australia, where differentials in earnings during someone’s working life are replicated in their retirement.

In defending the universal nature of NZ Super, he quotes Michael Cullen, who argued that providing basic income security in retirement is both the least and the most citizens should expect from the state. In other words it is the state’s role to ensure pensioners don’t live in poverty, but it is not the state’s role to ensure that their earnings in retirement reflect their earnings during their working lives.

Peter’s final comment focuses the debate not on whether the scheme is generous or affordable, but how we should pay for it:

By any standard, New Zealand Superannuation is affordable and sustainable. A programme that costs at peak no more than 10% of GDP is both. The legitimate question is whether that is the priority that the citizens want. Debate that by all means, and debate how it is to be funded, but please, as a matter of analytical rigour, do not prejudice the path of that debate by making the assertion that our scheme is “generous”.

For me that last comment is the critical one. How are we going to pay for it? Over the next 10-20 years the number of people over the age of 65 will roughly double while the number in the workforce will stay about the same (although it goes without saying that as we live longer more and more people are likely to continue working, thus paying PAYE tax, beyond the age of 65).

National cut contributions to the NZ Super Fund last year and has yet to demonstrate how it will make up the shortfall. Both John Key and Bill English are playing the short game on NZ Super – they’re kicking it to touch for a future generation to deal with.