This morning Australian’s have awoken to the very real possibility of a hung parliament. While there are still several seats that are too close to call, it looks highly likely that neither Gillard’s Labor nor Abbott’s Coalition will make it to the magical 76 required to form a majority government. To us over the ditch, this is nothing unusual. We haven’t had a majority government since about 1994, and the last leader to govern with a comfortable majority was Jim Bolger from 1990-1993.
Once the final count has been completed the most likely outcome for Australia looks to be a minority government supported by independents. But the real question is who gets to lead that government, does the incumbent get the first chance to have a go, should it be the party with the most seats, should Labor’s loss of majority give Abbott the first chance?
It will be interesting to see how the Australian public react to whatever government emerges from these results. If the government ends up being led by the smaller of the two major parties (even if there is only a seat in it) the voting public may well react against them. There will be lessons for us over here in New Zealand. So far under MMP all of our governments have been led by the largest party in Parliament, but that’s not guaranteed.
In 1996 we could have ended up with a Labour/NZ First/Alliance government, even though National was the bigger of the two major parties. In 2002, despite their disastrous result, another percent or two and National could have led a centre-right coalition despite Labour being the much bigger party. Under MMP we could well end up with the biggest party in Parliament leading the opposition, not the government. What happens in Australia over coming weeks could provide a few clues as to how the public would view that.
