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No thanks to Wellywood

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 12th, 2010

I thought the Mayor of Wellington was taking the piss – or thought it was 1 April when she proposed a plastic imitation on the Mirimar hill.

She has given jafas a great opportunity to poke sticks at us as shown by two columns in the Herald today :-

Jim Hopkins: If Wellywood’s the answer, I have questions

and Brian Rudman : Two cheers for Wellywood – they’re welcome to their wannabe sign

Kerry please tell us you were just trying to be funny.


What did smile and wave say about aussie?

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 12th, 2010

JP Morgan report today that the unemployment differential between NZ and Aussie is the worst since records have been kept.

Remember we had lower unemployment than Aussie when Key became PM. Still not 1k of the cycleway built as part of his recovery package nor 1 metre of fibre in the ground.

Press Release by JPMorgan Australia Limited  at  7:42 am, 12 Mar 2010
* The bullish case for AUD/NZD can be summarised in the very simple mantra that ‘NZ is not Australia in terms of the level of economic activity. In short, NZ had a much worse recession than Australia and is recovering much more fitfully. One specific illustration of this is the unprecedented divergence that has opened up between the unemployment rate in the two countries. We first highlighted this a few months ago and since then the divergence has become even more acute (Australia releases February unemployment data tonight, after the RBNZ policy meeting). As of December the NZ unemployment rate was 2% higher than in Australia, which is the widest gap since the NZ series was first reported in 1985 and 2.8% wider than the average differential over the past 25 years.

Tolley’s meetings

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 12th, 2010

Went to two in Auckland tonight.

She used the same presentation both times, seemed generic with no nod to the fact she was in Auckland.

Poor understanding of the research she was refering to – and mixed up different studies.

Problem definition not good – and objective, ( other than making sure ALL students leave with Level 2 NCEA, think about that one ) unclear.

Didn’t understand that the vague descriptions she was using are not standards.

Seemed to think that measuring was teaching.

Had a good cheer squad that moved from one meeting to the next – about ten people.

Had chairs who made the mistake of calling patsy questioners by their first names. The Standard highlights this in their report from the first meeting.

Was very wooden and rote like in responding to questions with what seemed like pre- prepared answers to different questions.

I got lots of material for use in the house but she seemed so fragile that I felt so sorry for her that I didn’t ask a question at the second meeting.

I’m convinced that she can’t last for long.


A big group that will be worse off following the tax cuts

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 11th, 2010

397,000 kiwi families currently live in homes rented from private landlords.

There are 189,100  individual landlords who own rental properties. Obviously most own one but some own  many properties but it averages out to about two.

The total projected revenue from eliminating the depreciation write off is $1.3b.  That involves housing rentals, industrial and commercial. Depreciation on housing is pretty much a fiction. It is real  on most industrial and some but not all commercial buildings.

The average is  $3,274 per rental property. 

There is currently a tight housing rental market in New Zealand and especially in Auckland. The tightening up of the tax approach around property owners liability for tax on capital gains is already pushing some landlords out of the market and causing rents to go up. Both TV channels have reported on this recently.

Landlords are making it clear that it is their intention to recover their extra costs (write off forgone). Of course they won’t be able to do it overnight – but they will over time.

My calculation is that the average residential rental property will inolve a loss of about $45 to the landlord v current depreciation arrangements.

(Average house price 416k but I’ve used median 360k. 2% depreciation = $7,200. 33c tax rate = $2,400 say $45 per week)

Can John Key guarantee that all families that rent their houses and get this increase as well as that in their GST will not be worse off.

And what does Bill English say. His rent was paid by the taxpayer for years because  he declared Dipton as his primary residence when he lived in Wellington.

But most of all who thinks it is fair that rents go up to give tax cuts of hundreds of dollars a week to the highest income earners in the country.

Not me.

Update  Comments below have suggested that my estimate is high because I haven’t taken out land prices. Other emails have suggested that there are higher depreciation rates and that because a proportion of rented premises are apartments land is not quite the issue some suggest. I’m happy to use the property investors $34/week figure for the purpose of the discussion. The post goes to the principle.


US cutting earmarks

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 11th, 2010

There is a long term US Congress approach where money for pet projects and donors’ companies is tied to spending bills. It is called earmarking. It is wrong.  And it looks like its days are numbered.

But it is at least a more transparent approach than our government as outlined in the Hollow Men.

And amongst others I have been guilty of focusing on Bill English’s role in leaking the emails and other documents rather than on the substance. After the housing scandal he is no longer relevant.  Time for a reread I think.


What Katrina Shanks didn’t want you to see

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 10th, 2010

katrina_shanks_national_standards_poll_-_yes_19_no_82

From last night.


Chicken shanks

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 10th, 2010

Shanks Poll - National Standards

Within ten minutes of the Red Alert post on her poll show 85% opposed Tolley’s lowering of standards going up Katrina Shanks took it down and even deleted it from her archives.

Talk about dishonest. Goebbels would be proud of her attempt to rewrite history.

We are working to get a screen shot of the survey result.


tory polling 85 – 15 against lowering standards and a great interview

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 10th, 2010

A Katrina Shanks online poll running 85% against the introduction of national standards.

And a thought provoking interview (radio nz 9-noon) from the principal and a parent from a school that has decided not defy Anne Tolley and not drop their standards is here.

Update Shanks has taken the post down and removed the archive. To see what was there go here.


NY Times on better learning

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 9th, 2010

Lloyd Morrison shared a great article from the New York Times on what helps students learn better.

Surprise, surprise not more testing – it is bettter teachers.

Filed under: education

So this is smile and wave’s secret plan to stop illegal whaling

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 8th, 2010

Remember Key had a secret plan to end illegal whaling by Japan which he was going to check out with Clinton when she was to visit here.

It is now out for us all to see.

He wants to legalise it.

But then again the National Party has a history of selling out on widely shared kiwi principles. I had hoped we had got to the point where our Prime Minister never genuflected  kowtowed to overseas interests.

Shame on you John Key.


Time to plead guilty bill

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 8th, 2010

Yet another inquiry into the Brash email leaks doesn’t find quite enough evidence to name the Deputy Prime Minister.


What a great stadium

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 7th, 2010

Phoenix win 3 – 1 in extra time.  35,000 there. Cricket, rugby in last couple of weeks. Sports work together.

 Brilliant transport links. Massive aftermatches within 1k walk.

Major economic and social impact.

Tell me again why jafas didn’t want one. The main excuse at the time was that they needed space to park imported cars.


Karapoti results

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 6th, 2010

Just got there but Chippie certainly closed the gap. He did 4.49 which was 56 min faster  last year when he had major mechanical problems. I did 4.35 twelve min slower than last year. Might be time to quit while ahead.

Filed under: sport

So, should I go to one of Tolley’s public meetings ?

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 6th, 2010

There are about three I could make it to.

Wouldn’t want to join the circus but could ask a question seeing they are public meetings.

Interested in readers views. Comment thread is on earlier post so lets keep it there.


Lions on the hustings – chickens under pressure

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 5th, 2010

The Dompost reports that Key, Hide and Garrett weren’t available to make substantive comment on Garrett’s plan  to sterilise people.

Smile and wave wouldn’t rule it out. Hide hid. Spokesperson made non comment. And big brave Garrett may have left the country again.

What a dopey idea – have three or four kids, decide you want a vasectomy and to get one free you have to beat up one of the kids.

But both smile and wave and jeckyl and hide wanted the focus group results before they were prepared to put their opinions into the public arena. Talk about being gutless wonders.


Closing the gap – will Chippie do it at Karapoti?

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 3rd, 2010

Karapoti2

 

Karapoti

The Karapoti is only 50k  but it is the toughest ride I have ever done. Takes nearly as long as the 160k round Taupo. As the photo from last year shows the track can get a bit muddy with rain. There are three massive climbs.

The first time I tried the full course I got to the top of Deadwood (the first big hill) and felt like I was going to have a heart attack, tossed my breakfast following by the towel.

I’ve done it four times since then, mainly improving, never beaten my ex workmate.

Chippie the local MP is a regular. He does it on the basis of very little training and after the last election it showed a bit.

But the big question is whether he can close the gap. Or even up the score. Complicated by the fact we are both going to a wedding on Friday.

 


Parents’ national standards petition

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 2nd, 2010

The One Size Does Not Fit All petition is organised by a concerned parent who has given a great set of reasons.


You don’t need to go to the back of the bus Anne

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 2nd, 2010

Anne Tolley has the lightest workload of the national party front bench and a smaller portfolio load than any Minister of Education in the forty years I have been following politics.

I see from the local newspaper clippings that she is planning to do a few meetings at national party offices around the country to justify her pathetic development and implementation of her standards policy. Some aren’t big enough to take the parents from a whole class of kids. Talk about a chicken staying on safe ground. And I see from her otherwise light schedule that she is limiting her meetings to one hour – to avoid having to answer the pretty obvious questions.

My challenge to her is to spend a day with me on the NZEI bus. By all means bring along a couple of public servants to help her understand and if possible answer questions. And how about the President of the School Trustees as well – so the anger that many boards are feeling can be directed to them as well as trhe Minister.

In return I’m willing to spend a day with her – going from nat MP office to nat MP office – hearing from those who turn up there.

Come on Anne – how about it?

 But I’m willing to wager a bottle of the best NZ wine that she doesn’t have the courage to defend her policy and pick up the challenge.


Another key promise broken – wage gap with aussie to blow out

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 1st, 2010

A Grant Thornton survey of employers in NZ and Australia reported in the Herald, has resulted in their prediction that the wage gap is set to increase.

They are predicting the brain drain to turn into a full flowing torrent.

Not really surprising. From unemployment being 4.2% in both countries in 2008 we now have 7.3% and going up and they have 5.3% and going down.

And what was the difference. The Aussie government took positive counter measures which minimised the employment flow on from the recession while John Key sat on his hands, ran a talk fest, and in fact made the situation worse with cuts.

I’m not sure whether Key knows what he is doing and is deeply cycnical, or doesn’t know what he is doing.


Whose going into Cabinet? II

Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 28th, 2010

Seems to be firming up on Nathan Guy.

Some discussion of Amy Adams getting the out of Cabinet role. Key getting worried about performance of most of the women ministers.