Why Labour can win
Posted by Trevor Mallard on August 1st, 2010
I got confirmed as Labour’s candidate for Hutt South last weekend.
It is a pretty open secret that I don’t like opposition and that I considered retiring. I decided that we could win and that while the 2008 intake is brilliant they could do with a few more experienced hands helping them Phil and Annette in government.
It is going to be an uphill battle, but it may well be that the events of last week galvanise the caucus and the party in the same way as the failed May 96 coup did for the Clark led Labour Party.
Mike Smith on the Standard has a good post today:-
Chris Carter is wrong. Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff. The objective conditions make it possible, and there is enough time. That’s true even if Key calls an early election to gain the financial benefits of National’s new electoral law, as some have predicted on this site.
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“I decided that we could win”
Crikey Trevor how did you come to that conclusion?
No way Key will be booted out in 2011. 2014 is a very open question.
I for one am grateful that you’ve stayed on, you are part of the experienced solid ones and an asset.
“No way Key will be booted out in 2011.”
Crikey, Reid, how did you come to that conclusion?
Read some history, study some stats and go to the Opera, but stay till the end.
How’s your I-Predict portfolio Trevor?
http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2010/08/fall-back-position.html
Trevor if you want to make some money this is a good idea.
Senior figures from the Australian Labor party have placed significant bets on the outcome of the federal election, with some punting against their own party.
Trevor, I think its great you’ve decided to stay. You’re putting the party’s (and New Zealand’s) interests ahead of your own, which I really want to acknowledge. Whether or not Labour win the next election, the team will need you to be there.
thanks for that!
It was just a typo it should read: No way, Key will be booted out in 2011
Kevin Rudd was unassailable as leader of Labor and a sure bet to win the Federal election only 6 months ago.
Inventory2 – might be worth a look our odds should be pretty good at the moment. I’ve never bet against Labour.
Nor would I expect you to Trevor; unlike your trans-Tassie cousins!
“Read some history, study some stats and go to the Opera, but stay till the end.”
mac, I’ll bet you eleventy gajillion pesos that Key walks over Labour in 2011. You’ll get a few more seats, but Key will be returned.
If you disagree, then give me some analysis of how you see Labour recovering the amount of ground it needs to, to achieve govt in 2011.
The return of the key
But don’t you worry little Goffo and Trevwise will return this country to safety 
Little Goffo? Trevwise? Are you on the suds again Spud?
An in joke with Bilbo and Samwise if I’m not mistaken
Frodo Loota
Bilbo was corrupted by the ring and gave it to Frodo. No Richard, I’m sober – but am on a sugar high 
Reid, the game goes like this. You make the assertion. I challenge you to make some argument in support of your assertion. Challenging me to a bet does not make an argument.
When you give me your argument/s, I’ll give you mine based on a little history, a few stats and a saying of that political pundit, “Spud” Bolger, aka The Great Helmsman.
OK Mac, my assertion is based on the current poll ratings which are consistently showing across the board strong support for the 5th National govt.
There seems nothing bad on the horizon at present that’s likely to derail that significantly.
Come the election the country will be in a happy mood cause the election comes right after the World Cup and whether or not the ABs win, the incumbent benefits when the country’s in a good mood.
Rudd/Key comparison is a fallacy. Rudd is an deleted Clare, Key isn’t.
End of story.
Trevor, I feel you are correct in your analysis. Under all the constant spin and sycophantic coverage, the Key government has actually taken the country backwards, and only the wealthy are better off. Key, himself, by $5 million according to the NBR. If you guys can come up with a genuine plan to take us forward, that excites the average Joe and the business community alike, and reconnects with Auckland, unlike the government’s fake plan full of false hope and massaged numbers, then it will indeed be ‘all on’.
As nominated earlier in this blog I have read some history and studied some stats.
The last time that a Government had only one term in New Zealand was when the Labour goverment was beaten by a Magnificently run campaign by Rob Muldoon. I don’t approve of what he did by it was wonderfully effective.
I don’t see any way that it is going to be repeated next year.
The trouble with you, and all the other veteran members of the party, running again in 2011 is that by 2014 the Caucus will just be older and even less appealing to the public.
The effect will be that in 2014 there will be have been no new people with 3 years of experience in parliament. There may be new candidates in that year but they will be unknowns.
I’m sorry Trevor but the best thing for the party is for MPs like yourself, Annette King, George Hawkins etc, etc to accept that your time has gone and you all need to step out of the way.
And President Bush Senior was riding high on his handling of the First Gulf War and the end of the Cold War. Only a year later, he was political toast. Four words sum up the reason being – “it’s the economy, stupid.”
“Under all the constant spin and sycophantic coverage”
Did you ever notice the very same thing happened during Helen’s first term?
All those journos with her cellphone number etc.
Wasn’t that interesting?
during Helen’s first term, and most of her second as well.
Sorry, no edit function…
“it’s the economy, stupid.”
So it is, DeepRed.
Do you think something’s going to happen?
“No way Key will be booted out in 2011. 2014 is a very open question.”
@Reid what were people saying about Kevin Rudd a year/year and a half ago? Things can change quickly.
Stats out of the US show the economy is stagnating, there is some job growth present but it is insufficient to keep up with their growing population, most pundits are saying that a double dip recession is still unlikely but a prolonged period of economic malaise is the most probable scenario right now.
“Things can change quickly.”
They can Nicola and sometimes they come out of the blue like what the BP issue has done to Obama.
Point I made above is that I don’t personally see any such thing on the horizon.
The Unions are going to make it as difficult for Key as possible, but people pretty soon get tired of being paid a few hundred less than they usually get, so big deal.
That’s the only obstacle I can see right now.
I believe that Labour can win. Key is polling well. So what? Start worrying when the PM gets over 70%. That was Kevin Rudd, only a few months ago. Remember him?
So I believe Labour can win. But now I want the Labour MPs to show us that THEY believe Labour can win.
There are many ways you can do this. Here’s one simple illustration, from an outsider looking in:
When you select your questions and questioners for Parliament (you get 5 each day, is that right?), apply ruthless, rigorous logic to your choices. And if that puts noses out of joint, well, tough.
MP on the election team: gets a question. MP on the way out: no question. Issue that resonates with the public: question. Issues that only matter to political insiders, or decided by seniority, or “my turn”, or whatever: no question.
If next week, Labour MPs (or the leaders?) decide that giving Pete Hodgson a question about Tim Groser’s shares is a good idea, instead of giving (e.g.) Grant Robertson or Jacinda Adern a question about ECE or student loans or wages or GST or any other issues that matter to the VOTERS, then we’ll get the message. The message being: that you haven’t got the message.
Voters want to believe. Show us YOU believe.
“So I believe Labour can win.”
Yeah but the question on the table sammy, is how?
@ Reid: by doing more of what they were doing pre-Carter meltdown. Exposing National’s broken promises, and sheer emptiness.
National’s support has been gradually softening, and at the same rate (1-2% every 3 months), it would be game on for the election.
And it drops when voters concentrate on the issues. It is only the distractions that help them.
National’s support didn’t even go up after the Budget. The long-term trend is down.
“The trouble with you, and all the other veteran members of the party, running again in 2011 is that by 2014 the Caucus will just be older and even less appealing to the public.”
What about their wealth of experience? As a youngen I happen to like these older and more experienced politicians – you can’t have a caucas full of novices! 
Bleep me!
We have enough new MPs – a freakin third and there will also be Hodgson’s and Carter’s replacements!
I get sick of ageism (when they’re not decrepid) and this weird view that newer has to be better because it’s newer. Nothing to justify that.
Grrr –
Me without any alcohol in the house – I drank it all last week 
Get out there and sell what Labour stands for. Don’t just sit there and wait to for opportunities to shoot NACT down. You’ve got a good team and some great first term MPs who have a lot to offer. We need to see/hear more from them, to convey a fresh face to the public image of Labour. The public are easily swayed with the right campaign – that is evident by the continued high poll ratings of Mr Smile and Wave, in spite of increasingly right wing pronouncements. The general public, who as rule don’t follow politics, have not yet been hit by these. Kevin Rudd’s sudden fall shows how flimsy these poll ratings are and as he found, one wrong decision can change everything. Find a way to unseat Rodney Hide and then ACT will disappear. That in itself would be a ‘key’ change next year!
Reid, sammy has given arguments that I too would use. The Centre/Left versus NACT/MP/sundry gap is closing all the time.
If the ABs lose……. have you seen ‘Four Flat Whites’ by Roger Hall as to the feelings aroused by the ABs losing? They aren’t happy. Re-read your last post to me-there is an illogical argument there.
There are a whale of a load of people already dissatisfied with this government and as the centre left voters feel the pain they will either turn back to the parties of the centre and left or re-engage in the voting process. A larger turnout will make a great difference. The Nats lost in 1999 in part because a significant part of their voting base stayed at home, as happened in 2008.
The Mass Media might also take on their proper function of criticism and get over their infatuation. There’s lots for the media to work on with this government.
Goff will get more and better coverage closer to the election.
The recession is biting where I live which it didn’t in 2008. That will be a factor- how the NACT/MP govt deals with this.
That’s the stats bit. History? Study the 2005 and the 1993 elections. The 2002 or the 1990 election as to how parties can rebound from poor results. Study the ups and downs of the polling of successful politicians like Clark and apply to Goff’s situation.
And Bolger-”The show ain’t over till the fat lady sings” still applies.
Finally, some promises made have yet to be kept. Jobs from Cycle Ways? Tax cuts for people like me against increased costs?
Also, as you rightly say, “What’s over the horizon?” Thanks for playing the game, Reid.
Some interesting strategic and tactical changes being proposed by some of you…really very interesting. Spud – goshdarnit man you got to have a few cans in reserve hidden somewhere for evenings like this…
“@ Reid: by doing more of what they were doing pre-Carter meltdown”
@ sammy. Newsflash. They’ve been doing what they’ve been doing and it’s resulted in the current polling situation.
Doing more of it doesn’t seem like a good idea, if you care about good polls as opposed to the current ones.
“National’s support has been gradually softening, and at the same rate (1-2% every 3 months), it would be game on for the election… National’s support didn’t even go up after the Budget. The long-term trend is down.”
Of course it is sammy. This is because you can’t sustain stratospheric levels forever. It’s just not possible. Not even if you were superman.
The question is: what is your specific strategy to increase the rate of drop, because whatever you’ve done to date, evidently hasn’t worked at all, and that’s not me saying that, that’s the poll data month after month after month etc.
What about the 05 and 99 elections? Which circumstance or political dynamic pertaining then are you implying will also or might exist in time to influence the 2011 election?
Sorry Mac I don’t understand how studying the ups and downs of Clark is going to help me understand Goff’s performance. Can you please explain?
@Loota – true, but you don’t know the shameful amount that I have drunk
Goff is going to kick butt okay and then victory will be sweet
Reid, Goff down now. Situation can change. Polls not set in concrete. History tells us this. We can learn from history.
2005 election. NZ realised that National had a doozy of a leader in Brash, current author of inane reports. Lost election when polls at time were favourable. 1999 election Tories stayed away in droves. 2008 Lab voters stayed away. 2002 election. Nats hammered because they had a doozy of a leader in English, that well-known resident of Dipton, and one of the fresh new faces in the National caucus.
Nats are still same old same old people with new leader. History shows us that. Back to the Nineties!
@Reid
As I said: issues versus distractions. Labour’s task is to focus on the latter. That’s where they are gaining ground.
The public polling data on the ISSUES clearly shows National to be vulnerable. When the public are asked about mining, GST, ACC, state asset sales, etc, their message is clear. On the ISSUES, they don’t support National’s preferences.
That’s why Key ruled out the sale of Kiwibank, tore up Brownlee’s mining plans, etc. He is afraid of losing votes.
Why would he be afraid of losing votes, if he can’t lose?
Let’s take one example: do you think that in 2011 John Key will campaign on state asset sales?
… the former, not the latter … bleddy edit …
No he won’t in exact terms, but that doesn’t guarantee anything. My pick is that if this lot are re-elected, they will go for broke, knowing that a third term is going to be hard to get anyway as electorate staleness starts to set in and the gloss wears off. Hold on to your hats if they are voted back in because it will be a rough ride, unless of course you belong to the favoured small section of society who will benefit.
Addendum: They will use the Roger Douglas method – keep things happening quickly so people don’t catch on.
@ Mallard – you wont bet against Labour?? – How about a bet on Labour – I’ll pop $100 on the Nats remaining in power – happy to email details if you think you can take it off me??
I’m quite happy to use i-predict – feels cleaner somehow Trevor
And they will need to set up or generate a crisis (real, imagined or simply spun) to justify their slash and burn.
Mac, the polls don’t agree with you. The polls show that most people apparently believe Key is a fresh young successful intelligent kind and wise family man with wholesome values and a wonderful family.
Isn’t that just great?
And once again, this is the polls, not me. Let me know if you’d like some links. Happy to oblige.
Those aren’t the only issues in town and they won’t be the majors during the election except maybe if Key goes for selling KB.
I dunno if he will or won’t.
Naturally I’d like him to keep it but I’m not sure.
Yes it’s very disappointing isn’t it. He was correct on all of those issues and he buckled to the pressure from your sector. Most unfortunate, nay tragic for the country.
You know I really hope he does, but somehow, I have a feeling he won’t do the right thing in that area.
My concern is that if National manage to get Banks in as Mayor of Auckland, then manipulate us to go back to first past the post as well as removing the maori seats, will we see 20 or more years of National government with no real opposition.
Its clear that the party with the media backing controls public oppinion, if National was to mix that with the other things above where would NZ be?
Other than stuffed
Gimme a break this is what they said about Mel Gibson ten years ago.
Geeee some people turn off their heads a bit too fast in order to swallow the hype
@waterboy – Hi
Long time no see 
Yes, Banks winning would be scary, come on Brown! 
!
Yes I doubt Key will perform an outburst a’la Gibson, but if you think that’s probable, good on you.
Hi Spud, Work Study real life etc.
Im getting worried about the election, and the real cost on average kiwis(Ie me and my family).
I know that everyone has different political beleifs, but why does National belevie that many kiwis need to be punished and there lives made harder?
“why does National belevie that many kiwis need to be punished and there lives made harder?”
That’s a good question, Waterboy.
The answer is, it doesn’t believe that Kiwis need to be punished. Why-ever would you imagine anyone would EVER think that?
Conservatives do all kinds of unsung work everyday, every single day. All the time. We always have. Just like you do.