I’ve previously linked to a Bob Jones article picking a Labour win in 2011.
Here’s a link to the Prebble piece at Gauntlet. He notes that Labour got more votes than National in 1978 after a massive defeat in 1975, he says inter alia:
Back in the present, Phil Goff is a much more impressive figure than Bill Rowling was. He is smarter for a start, and is a much more experienced politician going into an election, having 15 years prior experience as a successful minister, compared to Rowling’s three years and John Key’s single year. Goff has fought far more elections than either man. Experience counts.
Take the Mt Albert by-election which is the only head to head comparison we have of Phil Goff versus John Key. Labour’s polling two months out only gave Labour only a very slight lead.
Goff and Key then took the major decisions that turned a possible National win into a Labour landslide. Both Leaders selected their candidates. Phil Goff picked David Shearer who did not put a foot wrong. John Key picked Melissa Lee who was the wrong candidate even before she opened her month and proved it. Very few Koreans live in Mount Albert.
Both men had a big say in who organised the campaign. Goff relied on Labour’s hardened professionals who run a textbook campaign. John Key made the bizarre choice of a cabinet minister, Jonathon Coleman, as National’s campaign manager.
Some claim by-elections are a more reliable guide than polling. The by-election shows how soft National’s support is and how in a general election a 5.85% % two-party swing is enitrely possible. It raises serious questions about John Key’s leadership in a campaign.
If John Key was more experienced, National would not have contested the Mt Albert by-election. National under Muldoon did not contest Sydenham when Norman Kirk died, thus depriving Labour of a contested victory.
We could not believe it when the Nats decided to contest Mt Albert – most of us thought it was going to be a Green v Labour race.
After appointing Michael Cullen to a string of boards it then becomes hard to argue he was a disastrous financial manager. Similarly, supporting Helen Clark for work at the UN lends credibility to Labour. Credibility, the feeling that a party can be trusted to be in charge of the country, is political gold, and is what elections are won with.
Subsequently, Labour won twelve new seats. No party that had just lost government has ever gained a dozen new MPs. They mostly come from Helen Clark’s office where are they trained to be professional career politicians who will do what it takes to win. Their youth and enthusiasm is revitalising the party.
Well they don’t mostly come from Helen’s office but they sure have hit the ground running. They are very very good and over time we will see the results of that.
Great article!
Yes I entirely agree with Prebble! I’ve always known that Goff was a good leader and I hope y’all will kick some serioud butt it 2011! 
oooh, did I enjoy reading that.
However, what I’m reading and hearing about Labours support for the DNA seizing legislation still has me steaming, wtf was that all about, oppose for fs.
Some claim by-elections are a more reliable guide than polling. The by-election shows how soft National’s support is and how in a general election a 5.85% % two-party swing is enitrely possible
All through the 08 campaign we kept hearing from Labour about how the polls weren’t accurate (they didn’t sample cell-phones, or something). Turned out that the polls were actually really accurate and you guys got pasted. It frightens me to think that Labour might still be deluding themselves about this.
Phil Goff is a much more impressive figure than Bill Rowling was. He is smarter for a start, and is a much more experienced politician going into an election, having 15 years prior experience as a successful minister, compared to Rowling’s three years and John Key’s single year. Goff has fought far more elections than either man. Experience counts.
The problem is that Goff has not taken an opportunity to show leadership. Even though Labour’s MPs keep giving him opportunities to sack them from their portfolios he never does so. It’s not enough to keep telling us that Goff is a great leader, we have to see him in action.
Gee look whos running to defend National, confusing ‘polling’ with election results.
Is one of those cunning parodies designed to make a seasoned observer look foolish
He has shown plenty of leadership! I think they’re doing a good job of their portfolios
Mr Mallard, if Labour really does think that winning a by election in a seat that National’s never held is a portent of things to come I despair at Labour’s unwillingness to face reality.
It would be nice to think that Labour might start performing like a proper opposition soon.
How low would Goff et all be polling if they were doing an average job?
et al
spud, sarcasm becomes you
Thankyou, but in this case I wasn’t being sarcastic, I was razzing Danyl
National is doing plenty to be a one term government however Labour is doing even more to be a two term opposition…
Trevor, I would never have picked you as a straw clutcher. Stick to hitting out with your manilla folder.
What straws, he was showing something positive.
Jones and Prebble? What a lovely couple they make!
You know what they say, great minds think alike
I well remember Mr Jones’ activities in the 70’s and Mr Prebble’s treason in the 80’s.
Beware of the praises of your new bestest friends…
Ever since the advent of MMP the polls have been pretty accurate. So accurate that it has made election nights, aside from 2005, pretty darn boring.
I agree with Jeremy here, National are stuffing up heaps of things but Labour is just finding no traction. I know that it must be incredibly tough in the year after losing an election, but you guys really need to do better.
I am bloody terrified what a 2 or 3 term National government could do to this country, but unless something pretty massive happens I am almost resigned to Labour losing in 2011.
Please prove me wrong.
Good ole Prebs. He’s clearly had a guts full of Rodney Rort.
Bob – I will write columns to get rid of Labour (or was it a woman leader) in 2008 – Jones. Hmmm, along with Richard Long and all other media politicos of easy virtue that float, masquerading as journalists.
Prebble, part of a fish and chips extreme right Labour group, including Roger Douglas whose backers said ‘no Douglas, no money for your 1984 election campaign’. Then we had the message to National ‘No Brash No Cash’ from the Diane Foreman/Business Roundtable brigade. (What a payback, to be called entrepreneur of the Year, for Diane Foreman for the almost-selling out of New Zealand in 2005 and succeeding in 2008. Shame she’ll never know whether she won the award on her own merits or whether the backers selling out New Zealand rewarded her for services to greed.)
The idea that those scum would be angling to be included in any Labour future is a revolting thought. The sad part is that only they get their views printed. What does that say about New Zealanders as a fair people that listens to both sides?
History shows us what happened previously.
1975 national 47.6% Labour 39.6% Yet 3 years later Nat as down to 39.8 and Lab was at 40.4( – the real stolen election)
But it wasnt a one off.
1989 national 47.8% Lab 35.1 and 3 years later Nat 35.0 lab 34.7
So National has dropped after each of its 2 previous big wins.
While Labour was the one to INCREASE after each of its last two wins
1999 lab 38.4% 2002 41.2 % and also in 84 Lab 43% 87 48%
History is on Labours side, as MMP wont return a distorted result .
Unless Labour drastically picks up it’s game it will lose by a larger margin in 2011 than 2008…
It is failing to position itself for 2011 already, an entire wasted year… It is failing to do politics 101 things…
Oh and the things Labour has at least made some attempt to position itself on are just plain dumb; adult education, ACC and power dividends… The first is $45 million out of a $64 billion dollar budget and no one cares about it, the second two Joyce will cream them on (if he’s campaign manager again)…
Also it was too soon to put Mallard back onto the front bench, the public still sees him as the toe to toe with Tau mud raker, maybe it will always be too soon…
Jeremy I think you need to get out more often – 53,000 made the effort to sign a petition – 200k involved – and the pay more get less sell it campaign on ACC of the nacts isn’t looking flash in my electorate, And just wait until the public sees our SOE policy before you think Joyce will want power pricing to be an election issue.
And thanks for your personal support Jeremy,
QFT
Labour can win the next election but they really have to engage in visible debate and that’s not happening yet.
Some people who seem to be knowalls about reaching out to voters, of course having never won a campaign, let alone stood for election themselves.
Farrar is a case in point, when he was a regional party vice chair, the National Party lost all their electorates in the region bar one, and then he was a campaign manager for a Popular Mayor and lost that one as well. Yet he says Labour is out of touch with the voters !! Pleeeese ( and as a member of the research unit he got arrested)
Getting up at 4am seems to make him an expert on everything
Ghost
Good point. You should also mention that in 1993 the Alliance achieved 18% of the vote. If we had MMP we would have had a solid left wing Parliament in 1993.
This is why the Nats want to blunt MMP. Proportional representation is a threat to their ability to fulfill their god given right at birth to rule.
So if Prebble and Jones are right in their predictions will you stand at the next election Mr. Mallard? We all know that you have been around for awhile now and we wouldnt want you to give up just yet…you keep the Nats honest!
@Leopold – LOL
– Not my bestest friends, but I like a challenge…
Tau and Trev’s punch up is old news, zzzzzzzz.
I was happy to hear that he was coming back to the front bench
I know that things aren’t polling well for Labour at the moment, but come on, Labour has a good chance and two years left. I think they can do it. Kick butt!
@Trev, it’s not a personal critism just my impression of your current public image… I get the feeling your tough enough to handle it..!
I saw the tabling of that petition in Parliament, any update on why those spectators were kept out of the viewing gallery..? On this night class issue, maybe it’s not whether I’m getting out enough but where I’m getting out… I’ve asked people in my working capacity and personal capacity and not a single person knew the funding was cut, let alone cared… I would also point out I’ve signed a hundred petitions for causes that I wasn’t passionate about, easiest thing in the world to do but what percent will change their vote based on it..?(which reminds me I need to get up to Mt Albert to sign Dave Shearer’s one)…
ACC will spin very well for National at the next election as levies will be lower than now so companies can attract initial customers, people will be paying less (long term that’s debatable) and won’t like it when Goff comes along and promises to re-nationalise it… Go for it now but don’t make it a big election issue…
On power prices, to flog the taxpayer for 9 years and then have a report come out stating we were flogged to the tune of $4 billion under Labour’s watch, you can’t think that’ll spin well… Could you..?
I like the implication that you’re going to propose big SOE changes, return to Electricorp perhaps..? Seemed to work well to me but you’d have to buy back contact and where’s the money for that..? Or maybe a wider SOE policy, not for profit corporations maybe..? I’ll salt that juicy tidbit away though thanks…
Really though Labour has wasted a whole year, if you want to win you need to position Phil as the “xxxxxxxx” candidate… I’d recommend Health as NZ’s school system is rated 5th worldwide but our Health system a disgraceful 42nd (below Costa Rica) and make a policy promise of say all under 21s get free doc visits, optometry and dental care and plunket will be massively expanded and hammer out this message till the next election campaign… Then he’s Goff the Health guy, rather than Phil-in…
Also I can’t believe Labour hasn’t been riding the Supercity issue and screaming blue murder about it since the royal commission was binned, it’s been a balls up by the government since day 1 and it seems Labour forgot it lost the last election because it lost Auckland, you couldn’t have designed a better issue but basically Phil Twyford seems to be banging away on his own with the “not yours to sell” campaign, where is Goff and Cunliffe on this issue..? They should be talking about this every day, two Aucklanders number 1 and 3 in the party…
All the while you guys are wasting valueable QOA’s in the house on night classes and throwing anything at any National minister you can hoping something sticks when the public voted Labour out because it felt it wasn’t focussing on core Labour issues…
The mind truly boggles… Pick your message and stay on it if you want any hope (and to keep hope avoid reading those polls)
“Oh and the things Labour has at least made some attempt to position itself on are just plain dumb; adult education, ACC and power dividends”
Keep telling yourself that. ACC will be a huge issue! People are pissed, and are waking up to the misleading and scaremongering statements from National. New Zealanders are proud of the ACC scheme and their anger at the slash and burn privatisation is growing.
I don’t think Labour has wasted a year, I think they’ve worked really hard and done their best. It would be very unusual for them to be polling high this soon after being kicked out.
What current public image of Trevor’s? I thought he came across really well in that motel story. I don’t think he has a bad public image.
@Andrew: Of course ACC will be a huge issue and as I pointed out, it spins better for National… Read why above… What slash and burn privatisation..? What’s been privatised since the election..? Air NZ..? Kiwirail..? Mighty River Power..? Genisis..? Meridian..? TVNZ..? OR any other SOE’s..? In fact we have an EXTRA SOE with the creation of Crown Fibre Holdings… Hard to get mad about a slash and burn privatisation agenda when the government has added an SOE… What about Welfare, Education and Health any privatisation there..? Nope, lets look at the budget did Bll English slash government spending..? No, he increased it by $1.1 billion… Just a hint: screaming about non-existant privatisation is not a good strategy… Just because we know National wants to do it, isn’t the same as actually doing it…
@Spud: That’s your perception Spud, I’ve chatted to a few people who are non-politicos and it’s not theirs…
I by no means have a political background or even grounds to claim I know politics one way or the other but so far am happy’ish with Labour’s response to the Key government.
Of course as times I’ve thought grr Labour where for art thou as many of us have, but the reality is, traction on key issues is only as good as the public, and our media, allows for.
While things may not be so much a National love fest any more, our media are still pretty reluctant to be fighting a Labour cause, and the public are even less so wanting our media to take National (or even Act) to task on Labour’s insistence.
Right now John Key would have to eat a baby, or two before the public turned. Even then some would claim the baby eating was for our own good and that given the recession John should have really encouraged eating babies sooner.
It’s very difficult ask of the average Joe and Mary Blow, to critically analyse their voting motivations and I think it is too early in the game to pressure them to do so.
As long as Labour makes some noise on issues, even if it doesn’t gain any traction, what Labour has to say is on record and will be fruitful to harvest come election time when the average person will actually WANT to hear from opposition parties.
Until then, sorry to say, all that Labour has to say out there in la la land is received as white noise and seen as not fair, as we should really “give National a go”.
@Andrew – I too have spoken with others,non politicos, like me
So not just my perception and I don’t think there’s a problem. 
@Flower – I’m not political either. I agree with you.
spud- @Andrew – “I too have spoken with others,non politicos, like me So not just my perception and I don’t think there’s a problem”
huh? when did I say that? you mean jeremy?
Jeremy – “What slash and burn privatisation..? What’s been privatised since the election..? Air NZ..? Kiwirail..? Mighty River Power..? Genisis..? Meridian..? TVNZ..?”
All irrelevant, National want to open ACC up to competition, open up the most profitable accounts, which can only lead to higher levys on the other accounts and eventual dismantling of the scheme. Go and talk to people, ask them about their experiences and thoughts on ACC, aside from talking about the loss its making (it’s actually not making a loss, it took in a hell of a lot more than it paid out, reserves at highest levels etc…) most people will talk about injuries they have had at sports or at work and about the service they received which was paid for through ACC. There is an automatic reactionary response to being told levys must go up, this is what National is counting on, and may succeed. Bur New Zealanders deserve the full story, and if you think they don’t care for ACC I don’t know who you are talking to.
Of course National hasn’t engaged in privatisation yes, did you miss the whole 2008 election? There will be none in this term. With things like Health, Education and Welfare it is important to look at the long-term, what will happen over the next 5/10/15 years. What policies have we seen put in place to manage the economy over the long term? Nothing, because managing the economy is not the plan, what we are hearing is that the reason we are so far behind Australia is our government, take the government (or at least any aspect that doesn’t benefit increased profits and investment in the private sector, which is somehow going to lead to increased wages hahaha) out of the equation and everything is fixed – this is the plan for the next term, two terms, however long it takes. This government thinks it knows exactly what its doing and this is a very dangerous position.
What is needed are avenues for people to make themselves heard in the political sphere, and by doing this enjoy greater participation and the follow on greater education and knowledge of the sectors of government and economy. Of course not everyone is interested, but issues like ACC move a few more people toward that interest. That is another reason why ACC is important; not just because it is a New Zealand icon and success story (which it overwhelmingly is by any international comparison)
@Andrew – yes, I’m sorry man I did mean Jeremy. I remember now, I agreed with what you wrote so maybe that was why your name stuck in my head. I agree with your above post too.
@Andrew read my post, these discussions go better if you do… I said ACC will spin better for National at the next election and said why, you haven’t provided any valid reasons why it won’t…
@Jeremy “I’d recommend Health as NZ’s school system is rated 5th worldwide but our Health system a disgraceful 42nd”
Re Education – it won’t have the good rep it has now off shore for long if Chopper Tolley keeps on messing it up. Do not underestimate the public when it comes to things like the adult education cuts (I forget how many people have had some form of adult ed – but its not insignificant), ACC (all Labour needs to do is keep reminding the public of the vulnerable members of our society who get punished by the changes – sex abuse victims etc – the public – left and right – don’t like to think of the innocent being ‘burnt’), closing good schools who serve vulnerable communities…There is plenty of fodder here for Labour – its all how it is ‘spun’ and how well it is served to the public.
@Flower – I agree that the public are still in the honeymoon phase with the PM – he can do no wrong – his PR firm must be very busy because he spends quite a bit of time acting like the daddy who sorts out his kids when they play up – and the public seem to be easily taken in by it. Then he goes and gets himself on US TV – nice move. Shame we can’t see his real agenda – by the time the Nats have made the cuts and sold things off it will be too late and the country will be sitting around going – bugger – did not see that coming. Then Labour will need to spend another 9 years fixing it – just like they have.
ps: is it me or do most of the media people coming out of AKL seem very right side leaning….
I’ve seen a bit of right wing spin, though I don’t get to see much TV lately. Yep, this country is being taken for a ride.
Jeremy – I have read your post – if you mean this -> “ACC will spin very well for National at the next election as levies will be lower than now so companies can attract initial customers, people will be paying less”
….. then I disagree, the levy charges will not be noticed by the average voter. People will not be analysing levy prices so much as an undefinable ‘quality of service’ which can be ’spun’ (as you so love to put it) much more easily be describing, showing and proving the reduction in coverage and the increased difficulties in obtaining service.
Levy prices are big issue now because of the coverage of them, coverage which can be shifted onto the ‘quality of service’ it about moving an argument from ‘efficiency’ to ‘quality’, its not easy, but there is no way that this will spin better for National if enough work is done on the ‘quality’ argument.
And actually your ‘reasoned’ (ahem) argument was that lack of any privatisation means that stick is off the table to beat national with and no one is “screaming” anything except against the cuts in ACC services. Giving up on ACC as an issue would be an incredible mistake.
Sorry if my last post came across as disrepectful Andrew it seemed to me you had just seen my reply and raced off into another spiel as it didn’t relate to my post at all, however cheap insults do not an argument win and there were many in your next post…
“And actually your ‘reasoned’ (ahem) argument was that lack of any privatisation means that stick is off the table to beat national with and no one is “screaming” anything except against the cuts in ACC services. Giving up on ACC as an issue would be an incredible mistake.”
No it wasn’t, I’m capable of putting more than one argument in a post… One about ACC, one about privatisation, a few about what I believe Labour is doing wrong… In fact you stated people were worried sick about privatisation, I pointed out there hasn’t been any and then you state it’s irrelevant… Interesting but I think you’re projecting your concerns about future privatisation onto the public…
I’m trying to be constructive here, a strong opposition is needed in our democracy and I think unless Labour lifts it’s game we will have a smaller opposition returned in the next government… As the alcoholics say, “the first step is admitting you have a problem”, look at the polls, problem… Time to try a different track one would think…
“you’re projecting your concerns about future privatisation onto the public…” LOL
No, wait this is a comment worthy of the facial spasm emoticon 
The public are concerned about privatisation and so am I. And polls schmolls – they’ll improve in the next two years.
Sorry for getting a bit snarky I misinterpreted your response as negative and decided to respond, my bad. Yes, of course there is a problem, a credibility problem. Any opposition has to do the grind for a few years until the public sees them as a reasonable alternative again, it has happened after almost every change of government. Labour will not be making traction in the polls till mid-to-late next year probably (setting aside transitory events). This does not ignore the voters, they turned away from Labour and it will take some work to get them back. However the problem that is occuring now is how much coverage the polls are getting in the media and Labour’s response to the polls. Indeed, jumping onto the ‘daily issue’ and harping on isn’t going to work. Theres too much of a ’snap’ mentality (like the card game, gotta get in as quick as possible.) The issues must be selected carefully, taking into account a criteria list far too long for this comment and concentrated on. (of course you can hold the government accountable for the daily decisions it makes and hammer them, but don’t make that the basis of a campaign.) You can’t prove you’re better at everything, but if you can prove your worth in a few key aspects and develop public interest and empathy in those aspects then you have got a chance. I think ACC is one of those issues which is why I have an interest in it.
I take your point on the ’secret agenda’ strategy, and yes I agree it has been overused and a rethink would be sensible (again this is linked to the ’snap’ analogy) but that does not remove it’s potency completely, as long as it is linked to an overall gameplan along the lines i’ve mentioned it can still be useful. (there is definetly an agenda, but Key appears happy to play the long game so far) Link the privatisation directly to the issues you are gaining empathy on (not just firing blindly hoping to hit a target). It is possible. But it is hard.
Personally, I can’t put faith in whatever Richard Prebble says. I’ve heard and read his political predictions before, and watched them not come true. Although this is the first time in almost two decades I’ve noticed Prebble say something complimentary about Labour, I will go with other indicators.
My personal view on Labour’s first year in opposition is that for the first twelve months it is hard for any freshly into opposition party to make ground in the media. On the other hand, Labour has retained a core of support, and is beginning to build up for the next election.
Spud’s right, only one poll matters.
Exactly Andrew, all NZers are worried about privatisation, the 80s and 90s saw to that but it seems to me always claiming there is a National privatisation agenda (while true) isn’t the best strategy when they have increased SOEs in the last year… Labour looks like the party who cried wolf after a while…
I’m glad we agree that a focus on a few key issues would be most beneficial, we will however have to agree to disagree over ACC being one of those issues…
@Andrew – I agree with you about the polls getting too much coverage.
Prebble, to my certain knowledge, has never made a prediction without a present purpose. I think today’s revelation about Rodney Hide’s comments brings this article into more light.
Just as John Key was hailed as the coming man in 2006 before Don Brash stepped (pushed?) down, in that year Richard Prebble described John Key as the candidate from “Central Casting”, an apparently flawless fellow. Now Richard Prebble is saying Key isn’t up to the job. This article of his clearly states that Key doesn’t have the experience to win an election (odd assumption, in the face of the 2008 result).
Yesterday Mr Hide roundly abused Key’s abilities (see the article http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/politics/3032407/Key-doesn-t-do-anything-Rodney-Hide ) it appears that to the far right, Key just isn’t good enough. If experience is the main qualifier in the change wanted, I wonder who it is they want to promote? A present minister? Make John Key take direct advice from Roger Douglas?
Labour can posture about ACC etc. but we have a real issue with becoming a surveillance state and Labour and National are voting for it! Hell Labour introduced the bill! Why is there no opposition, Labour MP’s? What the hell could you guys possibly gain by giving this legislation cross-party support? If there’s ever an issue to jump on you’d think one about surveillance by govt. departments and personal freedoms would be it. Honestly, what did I vote for when I voted Labour in ‘08?
I too would like to express my disgust at the surveillance state