I thought I had witnessed Otago’s darkest day in rugby. It was 1979 and Steve Marfell the strapping Marlbrough 2nd-five lined up a penalty that would have sunk Otago into the 2nd Division South with the likes of Buller and North Otago. He missed and over the years following Otago built up an enviable record under the likes of Laurie Mains, Gordon Hunter and latterly Tony Gilbert. But now Otago rugby stands on the edge of oblivion- at least in the short term. It is truly shocking for those of us who grew up in awe of the blue and gold.

The truth is that the professional era for rugby has never really been kind to Otago. In the years following 1996 there was a legacy of player strength that carried Otago to an NPC title a couple of years later, but it soon became clear that retaining players was going to be a struggle. As the performances of the team declined, so did the crowds, and no doubt the sponsorship revenue. Player payments went up and up, and the cost of retaining Carisbrook as a facility also grew. That much I can see, what on earth else was going on to see the debt rise so much I have no idea. This must have been some pretty shocking decisions taken in the last few years to see it get this bad.

The NZRU seem likely to ensure club and school rugby will continue, and that as Clare and David have pointed out, must be a priority.

As for the ITM Cup (NPC) team I think it is important that something is done to try to field a team this year. This might well be the opportunity to see the wider community come back in behind the team. With local commercial support as the base, maybe Otago people can be given the opportunity to help get the team on the field. The rest of the year then needs to be spent establishing a more sustainable base for the future.

But the real question that does have to be answered is the sustainability of professional rugby at the provincial level. Chris Laidlaw has made the case that we pretty much can not afford it, and there is evidence to back that up. Many provinces are really struggling, and as we can see in Otago’s case, it can have massive consequences. But what would a return to amateur rugby mean for provincial teams? The looming private ownership of Super 15 franchises will put more distance between local rugby and the professional game, and the chances of money earned professionally coming back to support the game will reduce.

The NZRU urgently need to re-look at the model for the game here to ensure that it survives and thrives at a local level. They tell us that is their goal- now is the time to take stock and make good on that commitment.

For non-cricket fans, I have some bad news. The New Zealand cricket summer actually only started this weekend. What has come so far with a woeful Zimbabwe team was merely the curtain raiser to the main event, the arrival of the South Africans, the second ranked test team and third ranked one day team in the world.

The first taste was Friday night, with a commanding win by New Zealand in the T20 game in Wellington. Before we get too carried away, T20 is not really the South Africans favoured format. They are ranked fifth compared to our second in the ICC rankings. But the Black Caps looked as good as they have all summer.

There are some impressive signs. Doug Bracewell and Tim Southee are charging into the bowling crease. Kane Williamson is looking accomplished. But towering above them all is Martin Guptill. He is in the richest vein of form you could find, averaging over 100 in international cricket for the summer. Watching him on Friday night, in a form of the game that challenges a cricket purist, almost every stroke that Guptill played was a genuine cricket shot, with impeccable timing and a good degree of power.

Guptill is agile and a ball of energy in the field as well. You would think he would be a major focus for the Indian Premier League T20 teams. Well he would be, if it weren’t for the fact that he has ruled himself out, prefering to play county cricket in England so he can focus on developing his skills for all forms of the game. Could I love this man any more?

Well actually, yes. If he can keep this form up for the remainder of the summer- especially in the Tests where New Zealand will be tested to the limit from the South African bowling line up that includes Dale Steyn not here for the T20s.

I have sometimes wondered about playing cricket late into March, but if that means getting opposition like the South Africans and then the summer of cricket can become the autumn of Guptill then I’m more than happy.

No secret – I’m massive All Black fan and have prejudice towards Hurricanes – Weepu, Nonu and Jane. (well mainly former Canes).

The team for Saturday is as I would select it.

But in a fortnight we need to change. Bit of a risk before seeing form v France but this is as I see it now.

We have probably the most versatile starting backline ever. Weepu can play 1st V, Nonu can play 2nd V to wing, Kahui can cover centre and Jane fullback.

All we need is Williams and a halfback. Carter won’t come off unless injured and if he is Weepu can move out.

Read will play next weekend and is the best number eight in the world. But we need Thomson as a reserve loosie.

My solution, drop Slade who has never played well under test match pressure, add Thomson to the reserves and go with a 5 – 2 split.

Opinions.

At Red Alert we are committed to making sure that political issues are debated through the period of the Rugby World Cup. It falls to us as the mainstream media abandon the day to day of politics for anything related to rugby.  The writing was on the wall the other night when both major TV networks led with the naming of the All Black team to play Tonga.

Having said that, we  here in the ship of social democracy are capable of thinking about more than one thing at a time, and for me, and some other colleagues we might just have a wee tad of interest in the Cup. So we will do some brief posts along the way.

So to start, what should folks be looking for in terms of rugby in the first few weeks of the tournament?

• massive score blowouts as the big teams (think us, England, Aussie, South Africa etc) play the minnows of the rugby world, Georgia, Russia, USA etc (yep the power balance in rugby is pretty much the inverse of geo-politics).
• wailing and gnashing of teeth that the All Blacks still don’t look quite right. (This will happen whether they do or not).
• the possible rise of the Pacific nations. I think Samoa, Tonga and to a lesser extent Fiji will be the big movers of the early rounds. The Pacific teams are now stacked with players who ply their trade in the Northern Hemisphere competitions. Combined with a bit of local and NZ based talent, they will be tough opponents for anyone. Fiji and Samoa sprang surprises four years ago in France, and they now have an even bigger base of professional players.

My suggestion for getting through the first few weeks of the tournament is pick yourself an underdog team and live your life through them. The All Blacks will be fine in pool play, give someone else a go too. Then rejoice as the Georgians actually score a try, or the Romanians hold Scotland to half a cricket score. And then when they play each other- there is the chance of a win!

Ah, it is exciting isn’t it? Now, move along, nothing to see here, back to the politics….

No great secret that I love watching rugby at all levels.

Great piece from the DomPost on a player who pays $15k a year to play 1st class rugby.

Today was the final first class rugby game at Carisbrook. I saw the last few minutes when I got home from campaigning just now. Sadly for Otago they did not win today, but I am sure Clare Curran will have been there with the rest of the crowd to celebrate one of the legendary venues for New Zealand sport.

I pretty much grew up at Carisbrook. It was in South Dunedin to start with, which meant I could walk there from home. And I did, every Saturday. I think I know more about club rugby in Dunedin in the late 70s and 80s than almost anyone. There was some awful times. I shut my eyes as an 8 year old because I was too nervous to watch Steve Marfell from Marlborough kick a penalty that would have sunk Otago from the first division to the then second division south. He missed, god knows how it was right in front, and Otago survived.

Soon enough I was a ball-boy at the ground. Dozens and dozens of club games, rep games, and one test match. It was the All Blacks v Lions in 1983. The temperature barely got above zero, the ground was drenched, I was drenched, but it was the greatest day of my life to that point. Stu Wilson scored his then NZ record test try right in front of me , and my mate (now Prof) Tony Ballantyne as we stood a metre away on the sideline. (starts at 3.41 on this video clip.) I almost got hypothermia. The next year I did after struggling through a hail storm for some game or other. But we loved it- and there was usually a pie for us in the dressing room at the end of the day.

At the end of 1983 they dug the ground up. They had to it was mud-bath. The final game of the 1983 season was a 0-0 draw between Otago and Auckland. There was no way anyone could score points- no one could run the mud was so bad. When the dug up the ground they found a jersey buried under the mud at one end. The new turf was magnificent and it coincided with some golden years under Laurie Mains and Gordon Hunter. I moved to watching from The Terrace and saw some magnificent rugby. A lightweight Otago forward pack, backed up by the genius of Forster, Bachop, Leslie, Ellis, Wilson and co. beat all comers. At a tough time in my life Otago won the NPC for the first time in years, and I stood in the stand at the end of the game and I think I might have cried.

We shouldn’t forget the cricketing triumphs at Carisbrook as well. I wiled away many days with my scorebook watching Otago and New Zealand play there. I was there when Otago won the Shell Trophy one sunny day. And when Jeremy Coney and Ewen Chatfield batted New Zealand to a famous victory against Pakistan before anyone even talked about bookmakers.

The facilities were fairly basic at the ‘Brook. And the arrival of professional rugby, and the requirements for night games for television pretty much finished it off. But it was a real rugby ground, in a real rugby part of town. Its a new era down south, but for someone who can still feel the sawdust under the stand and still smell the mud on the ground, I can say for sure that Carisbrook will never be forgotten.