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Donald Trump – a prize chump

Posted by Darien Fenton on April 21st, 2011

For the first time in a couple of weeks, I’ve had time to catch up with some international political news.

Even although times are tough in New Zealand, at least we don’t (yet) have candidates like Donald Trump for the top political positions in New Zealand.  Maggie Barry is a pale imitation of this kind of “celebrity” wanne-be politician and I’m sure she’s pretty harmless.

starsnaps_us_donald_trumpBut this man’s a chump.

The real estate magnate is readying himself for a run at the US Presidency, even although goodness knows what he stands for or believes in (although having said that, I would struggle to describe what John Key stands for or believes in as well).

Back in 2000, when Trump was strongly considering running for President as a third-party candidate under the Reform Party he said that he was a “Business Conservative, though socially moderate.”

In his book, The America We Deserve, Trump outlined a few policies he would propose as a 2000 Presidential candidate. One of the most noteworthy: universal health care. You got it. Of course now he, along with the rest of the Tea Party supports the repealing of President Obama’s universal health care law.

I particularly like this quote :

“It’s probably more refreshing to deal with the Teamsters than the AFT or NEA. At least the leaders of the Teamsters don’t blow smoke. The construction unions I deal with want more in the pay envelope for their rank and file. That’s what they tell you every time you sit down at the table. You can respect that-even as you push back to cut the best deal from your perspective. That’s the American way.”

Bet he doesn’t think that now he wants to be the Tea Party darling.

He’s getting down and dirty with his attacks on Obama’s birthplace. He’s sent his spies all over the place, he’s demanding to see the birth certificate and what hospital Obama was born in. I call that desperate and there’s another description for that as well, which I won’t use here.

Seems that Trump will make an announcement about his political future during the Celebrity Apprentice season finale on May 22. How sad, when it’s nothing to do with what someone believes in or wants to change for the better – when it’s everything to do with being a “celebrity”, a net wealth of $2.4 billion and the very scary Tea Party, who want to restore the rich and privileged in America to their rightful place.

And I know this is old, but no-one yet has revealed what is going on with that hair?

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Filed under: international, politics
20 Comments

Greens to run party vote campaign in Central

Posted by Trevor Mallard on April 21st, 2011

Greens launched Wellington Central campaign last night.

It is the most controversial waka house this side of Cook Strait, but the Greens weren’t put off, last night launching their Wellington Central campaign at Te Wharewaka o Poneke, on the waterfront

Interesting to hear their candidate Gareth Hughes describe it as a campaign for the party vote on Backbenches last night. Mature beyond his years.

Going to be interesting to watch the approach in Whangarei, Waitakere, Auckland Central, Maungakiekie, and the provincial marginals.
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Filed under: MMP, greens, labour, politics
21 Comments

Gutted and grieving

Posted by Clare Curran on March 26th, 2011

Red Alert is the voice of Labour MPs. Lately we’ve been a bit quiet and you can imagine why.

Gutted is the word to describe how we’re feeling right now. Darren was a valued member of caucus, our Whip. A very talented and witty man. Popular. Dedicated to Labour.

Grieving is what we’re doing right now. So give us a bit of latitude. We’ll be back, strong and focussed.

Comments will be tightly moderated.

Filed under: politics
45 Comments

Key’s Waitangi Day promise to a poor young girl

Posted by Trevor Mallard on March 13th, 2011

Missed this Campbell Live just before Waitangi Day.

A good reminder to us all of the danger of doing photo ops without focussing on the policy needed to make change. And the fact that being Prime Minister requires substance.

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Filed under: media, politics
12 Comments

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin…..

Posted by Darien Fenton on March 12th, 2011

I know it’s a long way from New Zealand and our sorrow about Christchurch – and now Japan.

But dramatic events have been taking place in Wisconsin, USA – so radical to democracy, we need to take notice.

After weeks of the Democrats avoiding a vote in the Wisconsin State Assembly, Governor Scott Walker and the Republican dominated Senate have used a legislative manouvre to pass a bill that will strip public sector workers of their fundamental international and human rights.  The bill is based on the scapegoating of public servants we are seeing around the world.   Somehow public sector workers are to blame for the economic meltdown and burgeoning deficits and they must be punished.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has  insisted that stripping the rights of public sector workers is essential to resolve the state’s budget deficit—and rammed through anti-union measures that take away the rights to collective bargaining for public sector workers.

It all happened so quickly and undemocratically  : a special conference committee that hadn’t existed just a few hours earlier called into session, and a brief statement from the Republican chairman that basically boiled down to “We’re allowed to do what we’re about to do.”

Apparently, it was over in seconds.

No discussion. No debate.

Other US States are endeavouring to follow Scott Walker’s approach.

Wisconsinites are stunned and outraged. Thousands have descended upon the Capitol. There will now be big efforts to recall all of the Republicans who voted in favour of this outrageous breach of fundamental rights.

While Libya and the Middle East are also in the news and causing real concern, we need to be aware that in the so-called” free world”, serious attacks on democratic decision making and the fundamental right of workers to join together and bargain with their employer are occurring.

It’s a trend that is extremely worrying.  It’s a deliberate attack on public sector unions, who, in countries like the USA, UK, Australia and New Zealand have much higher levels of union membership and collective bargaining than the private sector.

We’ve seen a milder (but no less offensive) version of the rhetoric here – “bloated public services,” “backroom office staff,” “bureaucrats” etc.  We better take heed of the lessons of the US and what buying into this kind of blame this can lead to.

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Filed under: international, politics, public services, workers rights
22 Comments

Relatives

Posted by Darien Fenton on February 18th, 2011

One great thing about New Zealand is it is so small that our rellies are never too far removed.

Sometimes it can be surprising, such as when we found out my mother was named after King Te Rata Mahuta – she was Patricia Mary Te Rata Mahuta Kerr – because of close family connections.  There was some kind of family secret that I never really discovered.  But I do know there are Tainui bones in our family.

I remember the korowai under the house at my grandmother’s even although the obvious Irishness on her side dominated.  I come from a family of Irish rebels and my Grandma was always staunch on this. She hated the English.

My paternal grandfather was a Northumberland miner, who came to New Zealand, joined the Labour Party and became an MP in the Peter Fraser government of the war years.

While I celebrate this ancestry today, when I was growing up there was a sense that we weren’t quite good enough.  My mother, when we were growing up in a state house used to tell us that we were lower “middle class”.

My Dad was a socialist post-war, but ended up in a respectable accounting job for the Public Trust.  My Mum was a school secretary and mother of four.

Today, my cousins are all around me.  Tau Henare is one of them, on our Irish side.  I’m bound to have relatives in the Mahuta family, and my partner’s Fenton relatives are everywhere.

Whether recently, or long ago, our families made the journey to Aotearoa seeking a better life.  Politics has played no small part in the changes they would have witnessed.

I suspect today’s debates about poverty, the haves and the have-nots would resonate with them. There is still massive power and wealth in the hands of a few. There is arrogance from the better off and an attitude of blame that says that those we used to give a helping hand to through the welfare state have “made poor choices”.  There’s a narrative that workers should be grateful for a job provided by beneficent employers, and take whatever they are handed out.

Yes, I know there’s no comparison to when my various ancestors made the journey here.

It’s good that my relatives can have different views – on the right or the left, even though we will often disagree. I don’t know about them, but the  stories and struggles of my forebears have shaped my political opinions, and like them, my life experiences have confirmed them.

That’s why I’m Labour.

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Filed under: family, personal, politics
18 Comments

No Taupo for Trev – election clashes

Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 2nd, 2011

Bugger election day last Saturday in November. Thats no surprise.

All on then and a long campaign. 

Balanced coverage should be good.

But no Taupo race for me this year. Nikki Kaye will have to wait till 2012, hope she gets a high list place to ensure she is still an MP.

Filed under: Elections, politics, poll
22 Comments

The Financial Elite have Gambled away our Future

Posted by Lianne Dalziel on January 29th, 2011

Yesterday’s Press Editorial welcomed the PM’s announcement on the beginning of National’s privitisation programme for our country’s assets with the words “John Key was able to demonstrate…the value of his background in the financial industry”.  Excuse me?  Did the Press miss the Global Financial Crisis, where “the over-paid heroes of Wall Street and the City worshipped the gods of globalisation, financialisation and speculation”?   The quote is a teaser for the best of the five books I read over the summer break: “The Gods that Failed: How the Financial Elite Have Gambled Away our Futures” by Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson.  The first edition of the book was subtitled: “How Blind Faith in Markets Has Cost us our Future”.  The second edition (published in 2009) has an extra chapter, which as one reviewer said could have been titled: We Told You So.  The authors of this book are economics editors, Elliott with the Guardian and Atkinson, the Mail on Sunday.

The metaphor that drives the narrative is inspired by the twelve gods of ancient Greece that lived on Mount Olympus.  Elliott & Atkinson have styled the super-financiers and the international organisations, (central banks, IMF, World Bank, WTO), the “New Olympians” and the twelve gods of the modern Mount Olympus: globalisation, communication, liberalisation, privatisation, competition, financialisation, speculation, recklessness, greed, arrogance, oligarchy & excess. 

“Greek mythology provides plenty of raw material for a book about the failings of modern financial markets.  There is the story of King Midas, who found the ability to turn all he touched into gold a curse. The tendency of markets to veer between the wild optimism of booms and the manic depression busts is akin to the life led by poor Persephone, condemned to live every six months of every year in Hades. But Pandora – a gift from the gods whose beauty belied her baleful influence on the lives of mortals – makes the best metaphor.”

As they said August 9 2007 was the moment the lid came off the modern version of Pandora’s box.  And the rest is history, which is why I believe this book must be read, because unless we learn the lessons of history, we condemn ourselves to repeating it.

This book is well-researched and easy to read.  It contains a chapter called ‘Last Tango on Wall Street” which has a very simple explanation of how the New Olympians (our Prime Minister’s background the Press values so highly) found ways to make money out of nothing – creating securitised financial products like “collateralised debt obligations” out of the subprime market and then hiding the risks behind AAA rated institutions.  The New Olympians made personal fortunes with bonuses they never had to repay when it all turned to custard.  And they were happy to see the taxpayers pick up the tab for their trillion dollar insanity. 

I conclude with this quote: ‘Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise.  But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation’.  That was John Maynard Keynes in 1936.  When will we ever learn?

Filed under: Book Reviews, Global financial crisis, Investment, asset sales, business, commerce, democracy, economic, economy, international, monetary policy, national, politics, privatisation
61 Comments

Isn’t it Strange…

Posted by Sue Moroney on January 27th, 2011

…How last year, John Key had the media believing National was doing a good job of pulling NZ out of recession and suddenly yesterday he has decided we are in the cart big time (he said we have the same debt profile as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)  and we need to sell off the family silver to survive. What happened over Xmas?

…That the mythical mum and dad investors are going to buy up the family silver so we are not gobbled up by foreigners. Now John, would they be the Mum and Dad investors who lost their lifesavings to financial institutions in 2008 or are they the ones who have  saved up a big nest egg over the past two years while wages have stagnated and prices keep going up? Surely, your not going to try and sell the line that it will be the KiwiSaver accounts that you gutted to make them as meaningless as possible?

…That National’s solutions to the nations problem now, look exactly the same as in the past – tax cuts that favour the wealthy, cuts to health and education and asset sales to privatise the nations wealth.

Play it again John. Didnt work then, wont work now.

Filed under: Budget, Investment, Tax, Uncategorized, debt, economy, finance, media, politics, public services
25 Comments

Hone has the right to criticise his leadership

Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 23rd, 2011

Not often that I find my self agreeing with Matt McCarten and Fran O’Sullivan at the same time. They have written from different perspectives but come to the same conclusion :- Hone Harawira has a right and possibly even a responsibility to criticise the leadership of the Maori Party for the direction they are taking.

McCarten :-

Political maturity means accepting MPs will have different opinions.

A party having a considered discussion about itself is democratic and can make it more popular.

Trying to crush alternative perspectives will have the opposite effect.

O’Sullivan :-

Backbench MPs are not subject to Cabinet collective responsibility. They should be able to articulate their views on major issues and challenge the powers that be. Trouble is, far too many of today’s crop leave any pretence to owning an independent brain outside the door when they enter Parliament.

and

Harawira is made of sterner stuff. But there has also been a sea change, which I put down to the journalistic tendency to quickly put any backbench MP on to the “must be dumped from caucus’ slipway” when they call their own party to account.

Instead of greasing the ramp, why don’t journalists simply challenge the leadership to respond to the valid points Harawira has made?

Publicly opposing the leadership of your party is never easy. But there are plenty of precedents, more from Westminster than here but can and should still be done.

The process is pretty clear. One resigns from portfolios and shifts to the backbench. One talks it through with the leader and then caucus. And one is honest and straightforward – not the Carter approach.

We don’t have a real tradition of this sort of approach – Muldoon, Minogue, Waring, Anderton, Upton, Lee. Being a small Parliament doesn’t help. And the increased power that has gone to the party and the leadership with MMP hasn’t helped either.

But I do agree with McCarten and O’Sullivan that it is an important part of a democracy that, in the end, MPs have the right to go public with their concerns.

Lots of colleagues disagree. I refer readers to the box at the top right.

And to make it clear to trolls again – I believe Phil Goff is the only person in our caucus who can lead a government this year – and that this post is about MPs right to express their views – nothing wider.

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Filed under: Elections, M?ori, coalition management, consultation, democracy, foreshore, history, politics
36 Comments

In 50 years so much has changed… but the essential battles haven’t

Posted by Clare Curran on January 21st, 2011

I follow Barack Obama on Twitter. Today I received this:

Barack Obama
BarackObama Barack Obama
Speaking at the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of John F. Kennedy’s inauguration. Watch live at 7pm ET. http://wh.gov/live
Will be interested to see what Obama has to say. His speech can be watched live here
Here’s JFK’s inaugural speech

So much of what he says is relevant today. Some of it clearly isn’t. But one quote stood out for me:
“If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.”
Here’s the text of his speech

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Filed under: democracy, history, politics
17 Comments

Checking the facts

Posted by Clare Curran on January 12th, 2011

Here’s a good project for the public policy units and politics departments within NZ’s universities. Independent fact checking and analysis. Would like to know what they think about collaborating on such a project. NZ certainly needs it.

We have a number of people in this country labelled as independent commentators, many of whom are clearly from the right and the left and some who are actively involved in political work, yet given the title “independent commentator”.

Some, who work for political parties, get an extraordinary amount of media exposure. There are but a small handful of academics who are asked to comment on various matters and who appear on TV and radio.

We have a number of political blogs, either associated with the right or the left of politics. While important and informative, they are full of opinion and assertion.

There is no real independent organisation where the facts can be tested, analysed and the utterer of those “facts’ held to account.

In the US, there’s a project called FactCheck.

We are a nonpartisan, nonprofit “consumer advocate” for voters that aims to reduce the level of deception and confusion in U.S. politics. We monitor the factual accuracy of what is said by major U.S. political players in the form of TV ads, debates, speeches, interviews and news releases. Our goal is to apply the best practices of both journalism and scholarship, and to increase public knowledge and understanding.

FactCheck.org is a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. The APPC was established by publisher and philanthropist Walter Annenberg to create a community of scholars within the University of Pennsylvania that would address public policy issues at the local, state and federal levels.

I’ve come across FactCheck a few times lately when searching for information on an issue. I wish we had something like that here. Imagine how it might influence our debates about the economy and ACC! As a citizen, you can ask it to check a political fact uttered by a politician, or aspiring politician.

Of course all sides of politics are accountable. As they should be.

Wonder whether it’s possible here?

Here’s an analysis they did in 2010 of independent political groups who  committed themselves to spending heavily to influence the outcome of the 2010 elections.

Here’s a summary of the biggest lies in the 2010 US mid term election campaign

PS: I see the UK’s Channel 4 also runs a factcheckblog which seems to have a good reputation.

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Filed under: #OpenLabourNZ, comms & IT, politics
19 Comments

Time to see through the right-wing politics of hate

Posted by Clare Curran on January 11th, 2011

Darien’s post on Jimmy Carter sparked a flood of comments on the Tucson, Arizona, shooting which killed six and left Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords fighting for her life.

Think what you will of Alastair Campbell, but he writes well and he’s got Sarah Palin down to a tee.

He writes about the impact of the increasing frenzy of the right-wing politics of hate.

Thankfully we don’t have it so bad here. But the buttons do get pushed on a regular basis.

Beneficiary bashing and dismissive attitudes towards those who argue for a country that treats people with more dignity.

Dog whistle politics. We have it here, admittedly in a less frenzied form, but here nevertheless. I believe NZers can see through it. Eventually.

Time for the right-wing US prophets of hate to change their tune

Posted on 10 January 2011 | 9:01am

Thankfully, my Saturday evening tweet referring to the ‘murder’ of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was premature. However, the sentiment of hope that Saturday’s shootings might lead to a calming of the right-wing politics of hate, from politicians and media alike, was not.

Why, some asked, did I only refer to politics of hate on the right? Answer, because in recent times in the US, that is where it is overwhelmingly to be found. For some time, reasonable public-spirited people have been growing more and more concerned about the angry, hate-filled, gun-laden rhetoric of the right’s attacks upon President Obama in particular and Democrat politicians in general.

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Filed under: politics
79 Comments

Nobody Likes a Tory

Posted by Darien Fenton on January 1st, 2011

The website – Nobody Likes a Tory -  has been providing amusement (and solace) to around 60,000 supporters on Facebook, including many NZers.

It’s unrelentingly anti-Tory – we’re talking the UK kind here, but didn’t John Key visit David Cameron to find out how to be an unscarey Tory? (And while you’re reading this, note the recommendation for the Penguin’s blog from the UK conservatives).

John Key said at the time :

I think there are a reasonable number of similarities – we are both centrist in our thinking, both ambitious for our respective countries to make a change and to deliver on the promise that our respective countries have.”

Oh yeah?  I wonder how much John Key wants to compare himself to Cameron these days.

Have a good laugh at this – the Common People, and someone, please point me to a John Key/NZ version – because while JK didn’t go to Eton, he did grow up in a State House and that makes all the difference – or so he tells us constantly.

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Filed under: conservation, humour, politics
58 Comments

Hooton – iPredict – still close this week

Posted by Trevor Mallard on December 15th, 2010

We don’t do general debates here but I’ve found posting the current state of the play and being slightly looser on moderation has given a chance for readers to have their say on the issues of the week.

Must say I wish I’d hit the Botany byelection option on iPredict rather than Pansy resigning effective before then end of the year. Interesting that they encourage insider trading – I wasn’t really doing that but have been seeing enough to know her position even as a back bench MP was not sustainable.

John Key will lead a National/Act/UnitedFuture government with 62 seats and a two-seat majority in a 122-seat Parliament after the next General Election, this week’s snapshot of New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests. Were the Maori Party to continue supporting this National-led government, the government would have 67 seats and a 12-seat majority.

The result continues to depend on Rodney Hide being re-elected in the Epsom electorate for his party. Mr Key’s ability to form a government is not affected by the result in UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne’s Ohariu electorate.

(more…)

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Filed under: politics
37 Comments

Louisa Wall for Manurewa

Posted by Darien Fenton on December 12th, 2010

Louisa Wall has been selected as Labour’s candidate for Manurewa in next year’s election.

Congratulations to Louisa, the next Labour MP for Manurewa.

And thanks to all of the other candidates who were prepared to put themselves forward in what was one of the more highly contested selections in recent years.

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Filed under: Elections, Labour Party, politics
102 Comments

iPredict this week – Rodney to run the government

Posted by Trevor Mallard on December 3rd, 2010

Looks like the Act dealers have been buying shares in Rodney. Hooton’s teams predictions this week :-

Forecast:

* Close election

* Result in Epsom to be decisive

John Key will lead a National/Act government with 61 seats in a 121-seat Parliament after the next General Election, this week’s snapshot of New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict Ltd, indicates.

The market continues to forecast that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011 (76%, down from 78% last week), with a 19% probability of an early election in Q3 2011 (down from 21% last week) and a 5% probability of an early election in Q2 2011.

Forecast party vote shares are: National 44.5% (down from 45.0% last week), Labour 35.4% (down from 36.6% last week), Greens 8.2% (down from 8.3% last week), New Zealand First 4.2% (down from 4.5% last week), Maori Party 2.8% (down from 3.1% last week), Act 2.8% (up from 2.4% last week) and UnitedFuture 0.3% (steady).

The probability of Act Leader Rodney Hide winning Epsom for his party continues to rise. The market now indicates he has a 60% probability of retaining the seat for Act, up from 55% last week and 52% the week before.

National remains favoured in Ohariu, continuing to have a 37% probability of winning the seat, although the probability of it being retained by UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne has moved up this week to 35%, up from 34% last week.

The Maori Party is forecast to retain all five of its seats and Labour is forecast to retain Hauraki-Waikato. The result in Ikaroa-Rawhiti is too close to call, with Labour marginally favoured the last time the stock was traded.

Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.

Based on this data, the market is now forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 45 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs and Act 4 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

National and Act would have a combined 61 MPs and could govern with or without the Maori Party.

(more…)

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Filed under: politics
37 Comments

Maori Party i-Predicted to hold balance of power – why might a by-election be more likely in Manurewa than Botany

Posted by Trevor Mallard on November 26th, 2010

Hooton this week.  I reckon the reason a by-election is thought to be less likely in Botany is because the informed money has the resignation being delayed until February to enable an August general election. I also think there is money to be made selling Key and buying Goff.

This week’s snapshot of New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict Ltd, indicates that by-elections are likely in Manurewa and Botany next year, before a cliff-hanger General Election in Q4 2011 which will see the Maori Party hold the balance of power and choose to give John Key a second term as prime minister. Except under one scenario, detailed below, the post-election balance in Parliament does not change under different assumptions about the results of electorate races in Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti.

The market continues to forecast that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011 (78% probability, up from 77% last week), with a 21% probability of an early election in Q3 2011 (up from 19% last week).

Forecast party vote shares are: National 45.0% (up from 43.8% last week), Labour 36.6% (up from 35.4% last week), Greens 8.3% (steady), New Zealand First 4.5% (up from 4.1% last week), Maori Party 3.1% (steady), Act 2.4% (up from 2.3% last week) and United Future 0.3% (down from 0.4% last week).

Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 55% probability of retaining Epsom for his party, up from 52% last week.

For the first time, the market is indicating that Labour will retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti so that the Maori Party will not increase its representation in Parliament from its current five MPs.

United Future Leader Peter Dunne is not forecast to be re-elected in Ohariu. National is favoured with 37% probability, steady compared with last week.

Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.

Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 46 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs and Act 3 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

National and Act would have a combined 60 MPs and Labour and the Greens a combined 56 MPs. The Maori Party would therefore be able to choose whether to support a National-led or Labour-led government, with a decision to abstain on confidence and supply being a tacit decision to allow National and Act to govern.

The market is forecasting a 79% probability that there will be a National prime minister after the next election (up from 78% last week), indicating the market believes the Maori Party would decide to support a National-led government.

Because of the importance and closeness of the electorate races in Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti, iPredict has again analysed what parliamentary balance would exist based on all possible combinations of outcomes in these electorates.

Stocks launched yesterday about the likelihood of by-elections before the General Election in Manurewa and Botany indicate both are expected, with a 72% probability of the former and a 60% probability of the latter. However, the market does not expect Botany MP Pansy Wong to resign from Parliament until next year, with a 64% probability she will still be the MP on 31 December 2010.

The market does not believe there will be a by-election in Te Atatu, indicating it believes Independent MP Chris Carter will not resign from Parliament before the General Election.

The market indicates an 81% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day.

Filed under: politics
116 Comments

i-Predict this week – it will be up to the Maori Party

Posted by Trevor Mallard on November 17th, 2010

Here is the latest from Matthew Hooton – it is from i-Predict where people put their money where their mouths are.

So we are now at the point where Act is no longer relevant and Peter Dunne will be looking for that diplomatic posting.

The Maori Party will decide who forms the next government.

For the first time, the weekly snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict Ltd, indicates that the Maori Party will hold the balance of power after the 2011 General Election, enabling it to choose between a National-led or Labour-led government in exchange for policy concessions. This headline finding does not change even if different assumptions are made about the results of electorate races in the Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorates.

 

The market continues to indicate that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011 (77% probability, down from 79% last week), with a 19% probability of an early election in Q3 2011.

Forecast party vote shares are: National 43.8% (down from 45.0% last week), Labour 35.4% (steady), Greens 8.3% (up from 7.6% last week), New Zealand First 4.1% (up from 3.9% last week), Maori Party 3.1% (down from 3.4% last week), Act 2.3% (steady) and United Future 0.4% (down from 1.0% last week).

Electorate races are tight in Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti, three electorates often identified as being of particular importance given they may influence whether or not the Act and United Future parties are represented in Parliament following the election, and whether the Maori Party will have five or six MPs.

(more…)

Filed under: politics
25 Comments

Hooton on i-Predictions

Posted by Trevor Mallard on November 16th, 2010

Looks like Hooten Hooton who does reasonable analysis, if from a far right bias, is going to do some polling commentaries. This one shows how tenuous Key’s hold on the PM’s job really is. i-Predict is a site where people back their predictions with cash – probably more informed than some polls.

Forecast:
*    Ohariu to go to National
*    National/Act to govern alone if Labour wins Ikaroa-Rawhiti
*    Maori Party may need to choose between National/Act and new elections
*    John Key picked to govern

Commentary:

The Maori Party may have to choose between supporting a National/Act Government or risk a hung parliament and the possibility of a new election, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict Ltd, suggests.  The snapshot was taken at 8.15 am today (NZT).  Snapshots are taken at random times each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties.

The market indicates a 79% probability that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011, with a 19% probability of an early election in Q3 2011 and a 2% probability of an early election in Q2 2011.

Forecast party vote shares are: National 45.0% (down from 46.3% last week), Labour 35.4% (up from 33.9% last week), Greens 7.6% (down from 8.3%), New Zealand First 3.9% (up from 3.6% last week), Maori Party 3.4% (down from 3.6% last week), Act 2.3% (up from 2.0% last week) and United Future 1.0% (up from 0.3% last week).

The market is predicting Act Leader Rodney Hide will win Epsom for his party (57% probability) and that the Maori Party will win six of the Maori electorates, although the race in Ikaroa-Rawhiti is finely balanced.

United Future Leader Peter Dunne is not forecast to be re-elected in Ohariu.

Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.

Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 58 MPs, Labour 45 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 6 MPs and Act 3 MPs.  There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.

National and Act would have a combined 61 MPs.  Were they supported by the Maori Party, a National-led Government would be viable, with a total of 67 MPs.

Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party would have a combined 61 MPs and would not therefore be able to govern.

If the Maori Party decided it could not support National and Act, Parliament would be hung 61-61 and new elections would be possible.

The market is forecasting a 79% probability that there will be a National prime minister after the next election, indicating the market believes the Maori Party would decide to support a National-led Government.

Were Labour to win Ikaroa-Rawhiti, currently held by Labour’s Parekura Horomia, the Maori Party would have 5 MPs with other party representation unchanged.  In this case, there would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply, so that National and Act could govern without the Maori Party.

The market expects Labour to win the Mana byelection (92% probability).  The probability of a byelection in Te Atatu prior to the General Election is 24%.

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