iPredict is often biased by inside information -so this is interesting :-

Act Leader and Epsom MP John Banks, and his colleague National MP Maurice Williamson, are both expected to be stood down as ministers by 15 May, with Mr Banks picked to be sacked or resign altogether before Budget Day on 24 May, according to the 6800 registered traders on www.iPredict.co.nz.

The New Zealand online predictions market is already offering 20 stocks on issues related to the growing scandal involving political donations from Megaupload founder Kim Dotcom, who is facing extradition to the United States on racketeering, money laundering and copyright charges. Other stocks will be added as events unfold.

According to prices at 1pm today, there is a 62% probability Mr Banks will stand down as a minister before Tuesday 15 May and a 56% probability for Mr Williamson.
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Key Points:
• Liberal Nationals look certain for victory in Queensland, but Campbell Newman is on slightly shakier ground in Ashgrove
• Early trading suggests Police will investigate NZ ACC scandal
• Stocks on new NZ Cabinet Minister launched after Nick Smith resigns
• Marmite rationing begins in New Zealand
• Coalition looks set to win the next Australian Federal election
• Winston Peters to be kingmaker after 2014 New Zealand election and Labour to lead Government
• Pengxin’s bid for Crafar Farms to be successful in May
• Fonterra payout predictions down over the next four years
• New bin for glass reclycling not expected for Aucklanders
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Key points:

New Zealand Labour’s David Shearer wins Super Thursday speeches, and forecast to govern without needing NZ First

Fonterra payout forecasts plummet

NZ Police funding forecast to be increased by 2.8% in May Budget

Queensland Labor on the way out next weekend

Wen Jinbao expected to step down as Chinese Premier by the end of the year

Two states each for Romney and Santorum expected in upcoming US Republican races

New bin for glass collection expected in Auckland before 2014

Pengxin’s Crafar bid for Crafar Farms unlikely to succeed before 2 June; more stock to be launched

Economic stocks extended to end of 2013
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• Gillard gone by 1 July
• IMF world growth expected to be 3.2% for 2012
• Bashar al-Assad to remain Syrian dictator until at least June
• Shanghai Pengxin to secure Crafar farms in April
• NZX and Kiwi Dollar both expected to be up for the week on Friday
• New Zealand Labour to win 2014 election with NZ First or Maori Party holding balance of power (more…)

We put iPredict into Red Alert most weeks to give people a chance to have a more general political discussion:-

• Bashar al-Assad to survive February as Syrian dictator
• Australian PM Julia Gillard wobbly but safe till at least July
• Campbell Newman to win Ashgrove and oust Labor’s Anna Bligh as Queensland Premier on 24 March
• Australian cash rate to be cut on 6 March
• New Zealand National / Maori Party coalition to remain intact through February but a Minister is set to lose their position in 2012
• New Zealand economic forecasts remain steady despite more positive BNZ business survey
• NZX and Kiwi Dollar both expected to be up for the week on Friday
• Crafar farms settlement not likely till next week
• New Zealand Labour to win 2014 election with NZ First or Maori Party holding balance of power (more…)

* Shanghai Pengxin to go unconditional on Crafar Farms by week’s end
* Mitt Romney to win the Florida Primary
* 34% chance of a Eurozone departure in 2012
* NZ Official Cash Rate to remain unchanged till September 2012
* Lianne Dalziel to run for Christchurch Mayor, as Tony Marryatt looks safe as CEO
* Labour Party to win next NZ general election
* Third Auckland kerbside waste bin expected by 2014

But more importantly 80% chance Maori confidence and supply arrangement won’t last.

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I post iPredict regularly because it is a VUW startup, sometimes has interesting inside information and because it gives the opportunity for a general political discussion based on changes or trends.

I know Farrar is a Director, presumably on a pro bono basis, and that his mate Hooton does the PR. That means that one has to take the selection of issues priced and the media statements with a grain of salt. Most Red Alert readers are bright enough to do that.

To those who don’t like it I suggest you don’t read it. Here is this week’s advertisement:

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Latest Forecasts:

* Shearer favoured to become Prime Minister in 2014

* Woodhouse to be National Chief Whip

* Minister expected to depart in 2012

* One-third chance Goff is off to China

* Speaker Smith to throw Peters out of Parliament by mid-March

* Parata emerges as contender for National leadership, with Key expected to step down in 2014 or 2015 (more…)

Latest Developments:

* Shearer remains favoured as Labour Leader, but Key now picked to be re-elected in 2014

* Coleman favoured for ACC, Foss for Broadcasting, Tolley for Corrections, N Smith for Local Government and Joyce for SOEs

* Goodhew and Bridges swap forecast roles, with Goodhew now expected to be made a Minister and Bridges to become Chief Whip (more…)

Key Points:

* Act once again forecast to win Epsom, but still highly marginal

* Labour again forecast to win West Coast-Tasman, after Damien O’Connor featured in party’s opening advertisement

* National, Labour and Green party votes improve

* Probability Key will win 2011 election down to 90%, but with an improving probability of winning again in 2014

* Inflation forecasts worsen markedly

* Other economic indicators remain broadly unchanged

* June 2012 economics stocks now trading

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Key Points:

* Goldsmith now picked in Epsom making National’s position precarious

* If NZ First reaches 5%, Goff could govern

* National picked for 2014

* Auchinvole edges ahead of O’Connor in West Coast-Tasman

* Maui pipeline to be fixed by Tuesday

* Inflation and petrol price expectations fall

* Unemployment and growth forecasts remain steady

* Current account deficit expectations worsen

* iPredict performs well against OCR, candidacy, and growth results (more…)

Key Points:

* Growth and current account forecasts slip

* Epsom now marginal, making a Phil Goff-led government more plausible, even without Hone Harawira

* National’s Simon O’Connor tipped for Tamaki

* Greens still riding the crest of Rena’s waves while National and Labour sink

* Alan Bollard now expected to increase OCR in March 2012

* Fonterra’s forecast 2011/12 payout increases slightly (more…)

Key Points:

* iPredict’s forecasts better for Labour than TV polls

* Greens again at an all time high and National still at 50%

* Labour attacks on Mad Butcher may have cost Damien O’Connor his seat

* David Cunliffe’s New Lynn majority expected to be slashed

* Government more vulnerable on Video Camera Surveillance (Temporary Measures) Bill

* Inflation, growth, and unemployment figures remain steady

* OCR to increase in March but second rise not expected until June (more…)

Key Points:

* National hits 50% and Greens above 10%

* Brash now most vulnerable party leader

* Video Camera Surveillance (Temporary Measures) Bill to be passed

* Inflation and growth figures deteriorate

* Unemployment and OCR figures remain steady

* Fonterra payout predictions improve (more…)

* National at record high, expected to govern alone

* Dr Pita Sharples now predicting to re-take Tamaki-Makaurau

* Trevor Mallard expected to increase majority in Hutt South while Clare Curran’s majority in Dunedin South expected to fall

* Inflation, current account deficit, unemployment, OCR and future Fonterra payout forecasts all down this week (more…)

Key Points:

* Forecast National Party vote slips following World Cup wobbles

* Simon Bridges expected to increase majority in Tauranga while Gerry Brownlee’s majority in Ilam expected to fall

* Gap narrows in Tamaki-Makaurau

* Mana predicted to have just one MP

* Unemployment and growth figures worsen

* Fonterra payout forecasts up (more…)

Key Points:

* National still on course to govern alone

* Labour remains below 30%

* Tamaki-Makaurau becoming too close to call

* Economic indicators remain steady

* Fonterra payout forecast to be $8.14 in 2010/11 and then fall within the $7-$8 range for the following four seasons

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Key Points:

* Twelve weeks before election, National forecast to govern alone

* Greens support increases further

* National strengthens hold on several marginal electorates

* Shane Jones still ahead in Tamaki-Makaurau

* Fonterra’s final 2010/11 payout forecast to be $8.15/kgMS

* Economic indicators remain steady (more…)

Key Points:

* For the first time, Labour’s Shane Jones forecast to beat the Maori Party’s Pita Sharples in Tamaki-Makaurau

* Fonterra’s final 2010/11 payout forecast to be $8.14/kgMS

* Maori and Mana Parties forecast to have two MPs each

* Ten Green MPs now expected

* Economic indicators remain steady

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Key Points:

* Growth and unemployment expectations worsen after recent improvements

* OCR increase now not expected until December

* National strengthens; no longer needs Act

* Notable movements in key electorate seats, including New Plymouth, Waitakere and Tamaki-Makaurau

* NZ First falls below MMP’s 5% threshold (more…)