Mike Williams blogs on Pundit with the conclusion that we have to do a better job promoting Shearer than we did for Goff.
Can’t disagree with that.
My public disagreement with some of the logic has to wait twenty years, the retirement of colleagues and/or WWIII.
I don’t always agree with Nicky Hager. But he is always worth reading :-
The news declared that the National Party had had a ‘historic’ election victory on Saturday but, if that was true, National Party people would be looking happier. The reality is much more complicated
Here’s the bullet-point version, to begin:
National won about the same number of votes it did three years ago (it got a higher percentage of the total vote owing to falling voter turnout)
National has an almost unmanageably thin majority in Parliament; party insiders are not at all happy
Winston Peters is back as a fly in the National Party’s ointment, in a large part because John Key and Steven Joyce mucked up over the Epsom tea party
MMP is here to stay, meaning governments need to win a real majority and not just a high single party vote
50% of voters voted against National, despite its popular leader
Many National votes were won because of its apparently easy-going and centrist leader, not because people necessarily support its policies
Well over 50% of the public opposes key National Party policies such as privatisation (‘asset sales’)
The ACT Party, National’s most important coalition partner, died on election night
There are signs that National has passed the high point of its popularity and will now start to decline
There are signs that National leader John Key has passed the high point of his popularity and will now start to decline.
The coming three years will be the playing out of these things. It is going to be very different to National’s first three years in government.
Read the whole article here on Pundit.
In Parliament as the election loomed John Key and Bill English frequently told us that “Mum and Dad investors would be at the front of the queue” and that 85-90% of the assets would stay in New Zealand hands. I can remember asking (well, shouting) as to how they could guarantee this, what were they going to do to make it happen.
It seems now that despite saying, as Tony Ryall did that “all the advice” is that this can be done, they did not actually ask their economic advisors in Treasury. Instead they relied on the advice of Ministerial advisors and some mates in the financial sector.
Now we only know this morsel of information because the Ombudsmen forced the National Party to release it. TVNZ has been fighting since August to get this information released. What the Ombudsmen has not done is force them to release the five briefing papers that they do have around the planned asset sales.
There are always judgement calls about releasing this kind of information. But the public interest in the days leading up to the election should dictate that the information is released. John Key has said he will take the election result as a mandate to sell our assets. Asset sales are the defining issue of this election, and the public of New Zealand deserve to have all the information when they make their decision.
It was great to see this sign when I popped into Astoria Cafe in Wellington earlier today. Good on them for making sure that their employees have the chance to go out and vote. Not everyone knows that there are legal requirements for employers to give employees time to go and vote if they are working on election day.
The relevant bit of the law is S162 of the Electoral Act. The guts is that if a person has not had a reasonable opportunity to vote before starting work the employer has to let them go from 3pm for that purpose, and they can not deduct their pay. If they have to be there after 3pm, reasonable arrangements should be made for the employee to be able to take the time to vote. Most employers are aware of this, and are flexible, but its important people know their rights. And the right to vote is one not to be messed with.
Also worth noting that advance voting is available around the country over the next few days if for any reason you are not going to be able to get to the polls on Saturday. The details are here, just click on your electorate.
There have been quite a few stories from the election campaign of candidates not showing up to election meetings, but it seems to have been a particular problem in Tauranga. I will hand over to Labour candidate Deborah Mahuta-Coyle to tell the story from up there.
We had heard on the grapevine that Simon Bridges wasn’t planning to front any candidates meetings during the election campaign. We shifted meeting dates, community groups offered to work within his availability- but after 6 cancelled candidates meetings in a row, people were angry their MP wasn’t fronting. They wrote into papers, some calling him arrogant, and many asked him to front up.
So me, Ian McLean from the Greens, Brendon Horan from NZFirst and Jayson Gardiner from Mana decided if Simon didn’t have time to come to us- we would go to him.
At 2pm today we as Tauranga Candidates arrived at one of Simons scheduled street corner meetings.
The look on Simons face when he saw us coming. He promptly turned his speaker phone on, and just yelled over us. Refused to even consider a short candidates meeting and only took questions from his supporters!
We clearly shook him up a bit as he yelled that Nationals tax system was fairer because drug dealers paid tax and when he claimed he had door knocked in a poorer area of Tauranga- a woman had him up about it and said in the last 3 years she hadn’t seen him once!
Our street corner meeting/ impromptu candidates meeting started with 5 national party supporters and ended up hosting over 30 people!
Simon scurried off as soon as he could- but I bet you he was worried at every street corner meeting after that one that we would turn up again.
Good on the other candidates for getting together on this one. Candidate meetings are time consuming, and we have a lot of them here in Wellington Central, but they are part of the democratic process. Even John Key managed to get to a couple of them, so surely Simon could have too?
Credit where it is due. The creation of the ‘brand’ that is John Key has been impressive. The state house “back-story”, the “just one of us” media strategy complete with beer slugging and commercial breakfast radio japes, the pragmatic, “relaxed” approach to the job.
But it seems in a few short days, under the pressure of an election campaign, much of the good work has unravelled. This morning on Firstline Duncan Garner made some very interesting observations that John Key seems to have ” lost all the character of the past in showing spontaneity”, “never seen him like this in the past, starting to see the changing face of the PM”.
Key has, as other PMs before him, assiduously worked the media, and has made them his friends. Over the last few days he has shown the worst of a ‘politician’ response to a self made political disaster, all but accusing them of having a conspiracy against him.
John Armstrong sums it up in the Herald this morning. The PM has lost control of this issue and is trapped by his tactic of referring it to the Police. But more than that his approach is running totally counter to the brand developed over the last few years
Key’s abrupt ending of his press conferences looked like the pressure is getting to him. It made him look shifty and weak
And shifty and weak is not part of the brand strategy. As they say, a week is a long time in politics.
You have already seen some of our campaign ads on capital gains tax,asset sales, free healthcare for under sixes and the Auckland Rail Link
Here is our latest ad. It focuses on the record the current government in failing to address unemployment and the exodus to Australia, and on the broken promises on GST. It finishes with Labour’s commitment that we will not sell our assets.
Auckland buses rolling out this week. Campaign moving.
CTU’s Vote Fairness video :
Thought I would share a bit of the action from Hutt South during the campaign. As lots of people know I personally pay Paul Quinn to be my opponent. Or more accurately donate to his campaign. I hope this helps Labour people understand why.
Let’s be absolutely clear, Radio New Zealand’s flagship show Morning Report said this morning that they had invited John Key and Phil Goff to debate each other. Phil Goff said yes, John Key said no. John Key said they are debating on some other occasions, and “because of the time needed to prepare he was not going to do any more”. (Simon Mercep says this in the first few seconds of the link below).
I am sorry? To start with that is a stupid excuse, because the issues being raised in any given debate will be similiar, so preparation can not be used. And it is not as if this is a community radio station in Twizel. This is the most listened to morning news programme in the country. This is disgraceful. John Key said you can’t hide if you are the Prime Minister. Well he seems to be giving it a good go!
The two leaders will now have seperate interviews (obviously Mr Key could squeeze that into his schedule). Phil’s was today, and you can listen here
Is anyone else surprised that National devoted their launch to talking about asset sales, a policy that the Sunday Star Times tell us this morning only 14% of the population support? And to top that off, they tried to dress up a previously announced money-go-round as some kind of new fund. We have been saying asset sales is the defining issue of the election, good to see National making sure it is.
Even the Nats are getting pissed off with their own campaign. Thanks to whoever sent this – and yes this is the total event plan for the Nats for our region for election month :-
Date: Sun, Oct 30, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Subject: National events in your area
Dear,
Following is a list of all events scheduled in the Lower North Island region for the next month.
Friday
11/11/2011
Ohariu November Friendly Forum
Organising Group:
Ohariu
Venue Information:
The Caucus Room, Parliament House
Molesworth Street
Wellington
Members Only
Party Speaker:
Katrina Shanks
View full details at
http://www.national.org.nz/Events/Events.aspx?eventId=2052
If your event is not included on this list, please email us at admin@national.org.nz and we will have it added to the website.
If you no longer wish to receive notification of upcoming events in your area please login to the National Party website and unsubscribe via the following link:
Thank you for your interest in the New Zealand National Party. For more information on the National Party, event details, or policy information, please visit: http://www.national.org.nz
Tonight, Channel One will be playing Labour’s TV Opening at 7.50pm.
The Broadcast is always an important milestone in the election campaign. Each Party has the opportunity to lay out their vision for New Zealand and tonight we know you will see two really different paths forward.
No doubt National’s broadcast will be full of the tired old short-term fixes we’ve come to see from John Key.
But we know that there’s a different way, a better way.
And we’ve used a doco style. Bold different fresh.
Make sure you tune in to watch our Address at 7:50pm on Channel One.
There will be several ads of this style in the campaign, called animatics in the trade. Same message as Phil’s asset sales ad. With Labour we can pay down debt, through among other things bringing in the CGT, and keep our assets.
Here it is folks, the first of our TV ads. It features Phil Goff talking about policy. We are really pleased with how the ads have turned out. We are focusing on asset sales in this ad, and elsewhere in the campaign, because it is a great example of the clear choice at this election. It’s a choice between keeping our assets in Kiwi hands or selling them off. Its a choice between a Labour Party with a team, a plan and the policy that take the hard decisions for the future of New Zealand, and a National Party that is a one man band focused on photo opportunities and short term political decisions.
Tomorrow we kick off our campaign with a major policy announcement around securing our economic future. There will be several other announcements over the next couple of weeks, in various forms. We are taking this election seriously. There is a serious choice, not just about any one person, but about the future we want for the next generations in New Zealand.
For the election campaign to begin in earnest.
Four weeks of intensive politicking begin now. New Zealanders have an important choice to make on 26 November. They need to know the details of what’s on offer and get a feel for how each of the major parties will perform as our next government.
In the last 6 weeks of the Rugby World Cup, the importance of teamwork, discipline, focus and skill have been on display to the world. And playing to win. It can be tough and uncompromising when there’s a single goal in mind.
Like the RWC, NZ’s election is for a good cause. In the case of the election; New Zealand’s future. Our kids. Our economy. Our environment.
Labour is playing to win.
Popularity and power go together. I think we all know it. Whether it’s in the school playground, the boardroom, the big screen or the bear pit of parliament.
If you have the gift of the gab and a brain, then you’ve got an “x factor;” something that others want to be near and have a part of.
But with power comes responsibility and judgement. The more popularity, the more power, and the risk that good responsible judgement goes out the window.
That happened last week I believe, when the Prime Minister was a DJ on an hour long show with no editorial control on Radio Live interviewing celebrity guests and generally chatting about (supposedly) nothing to do with the election.
It was less than 8 weeks before the election. he is the Prime Minister. A politician. His Party wants to be returned to power. It was an opportunity not offered to the Leaders of other parties.
The National Party’s election strategy is based around John Key’s popularity. Brand Key. All its election hoardings bear his picture. Activists and candidates wear t-shirts with “I’m a Key person” on them.
An hour long show on Radio Live in a prominent Friday afternoon slot was about cementing Brand Key in the minds of listeners. It was a clever marketing idea. It was not a clever political strategy. And it was not “fair”.
Radio Live is owned by Radioworks, which is part of Mediaworks. In 2009 the National Government provided Mediaworks with a $43 million loan to defer payments for their radio spectrum licenses.
This issue has been covered extensively in the media since March this year when it came to light. There is, at the very least, a perception that Mediaworks was provided favourable treatment by the government. In that case it is even more important for Mediaworks to ensure they are extremely balanced in their election coverage.
On Monday, Labour submitted a complaint to the Broadcasting Standards Authority over the PM’s show. Another complaint was lodged with the Electoral Commission.
Labour contends that the New Zealand electoral system is based on fairness, responsibility and impartiality to order for Kiwis to make their voting choices without pressure or misleading information.
We believe the show breached the Broadcasting Act and the Electoral Act.
I was completely gobsmacked when I heard that Mediaworks had given the Prime Minister a free hour. I believe, as I think all new Zealanders do that we are all entitled to a fair trial if we are accused of something and charged. I also believe that New Zealanders are entitled to a fair electoral system.
It doesn’t matter how popular you are. None of us are above the law. There’s always a point when the popular guy crosses the line and takes too much for granted.
The right to a fair go is a deeply held belief in our country. It doesn’t matter what side of politics you’re on. I think that’s the test here.
It has resonance for all our media and I reckon they aren’t happy at being put in this position.
Politics should be a contest of ideas. Increasingly it’s becoming more and more focused on tactics and personalities. More column inches have been devoted to analysing whether Labour’s tax policies have moved our poll ratings than have been devoted to detailing what the policies actually are and whether they’re a good idea or not. Plenty of publicity has been given to John Key’s Rugby World Cup forays, much less attention to the fact that under his watch unemployment has sky-rocketed and the cost of living is rising at the fastest rate in over 21 years.
But that’s the reality. We can complain about it, or we can get out there and redouble our efforts to promote the ideas we believe in. I want to be part of Labour government after this year’s election because I think we’ve got the best ideas for turning our economy around, giving hard-working Kiwis a break, and securing a brighter future for our country.
I hate comparisons between politics and sport, but there is one analogy with sport that I do find useful from time to time. In politics, as in sport, it’s important to “leave it all out on the field”. We compete fiercely with our opponents, we think our ideas are better, and we think we’re better able to manage the challenges we face. But we should never forget that our opponents are also driven by decent intent, however misguided we may think that they are.
Nobody is entitled to power, or to claim ownership of a particular constituency. In a democracy, it’s a right that has to constantly be earned. Likewise, I think it shows total contempt for voters to declare the electoral race all but run before the starting whistle has even been blown. There are still three months to go before polling day, and I, along with my colleagues, intend to campaign for the ideas and values that Labour represents right up to the last hour. This one is too important.
