Red Alert

Archive for the ‘by-election’ Category

Mt Albert Quick Analysis

Posted by Trevor Mallard on June 15th, 2009

How did it all go so wrong for the Nats. Their pollster David Farrar was calling the possibility of a narrow win for the Nats just before the selections. So what happened.

  1. Key forced an outsider on the local activists.
  2. Their local organisation was never that good but it wasn’t involved in the campaign as it had been for the general election. You can’t win if your few activists don’t vote for you.
  3. Lee started making mistakes right from the start.
  4. She wasn’t well supported. Jonathan Coleman doesn’t have the political experience or the street smarts to mind a candidate on a daily basis.
  5. Coleman gave up on Lee
  6. Key gave up on Lee.
  7. The Nats tried to turn it into a referendum on Goff – and then got hammered.
  8. We got a very good candidate – and the others who put their names in worked hard for David.
  9. The organisation worked well – better and better as the campaign went on.
  10. There was an amazing number of young people involved (say under 30 or 25) mainly from Auckland Uni and AUT including a minibus load who came up from Wgtn for the week  before the event. That experience and the willingness of electorates to toss a few hundies at the minibus bodes well for the future.
  11. ICT usage hit new high.
  12. Key’s mishandling of motorway issue.
  13. Key’s handing the supercity issue to Hide.
  14. The budget – a bit of a slow burner but there is bitterness at the lies told about tax cuts in December and late in the campaign more awareness of the cuts – some of which have gone down badly including those for gifted kids and night classes both areas valued by Nat supporters.

But remember it was just a by-election, great result but don’t read too much into it. Key did badly but he might learn from it.


Key ducks for cover

Posted by Chris Hipkins on June 14th, 2009

I was impressed to see that Melissa Lee did the gracious thing last night and went to the Labour Party’s temporary HQ in Mt Albert to congratulate David Shearer on his win. It was clearly a tough night for her but she handled herself with humility. The past few weeks can’t have been easy, given that the National Party seemed to effectively cut her adrift when things started to go wrong. It was telling that the only Minister present with her last night was Jonathan Coleman, who several TV commentators remarked “nobody has ever heard of”.

Where was John Key? He picked the date for the by-election, he picked National’s candidate and yet as the results came in, he was nowhere to be seen. Could it be that our PM only likes to be associated with things that are happy, shiny and new? There seems to be a clear trend emerging that when something gets tough, John Key just walks away and washes his hands of it.

Perhaps it’s just me, but I tend to admire people who front up and show some humility in the face of defeat. Key is the National Party Leader – he should have stood beside his candidate and accepted his share of the blame. I think Melissa Lee would be right to feel she was hung out to dry last night.


Melissa in Disabled Park?

Posted by Trevor Mallard on June 11th, 2009

Just stupid.  Can two days pass without her cocking up?

Remember she is John Key’s handpicked candidate.

Both lack judgement.

There has now been an explanation that the car was legally parked and that Lee was just making a phone call. So post withdrawn or whatever kawa is.


Who is Next to Go?

Posted by Trevor Mallard on June 4th, 2009

Probably useful iPredict subject would be who is the resignation after Richard Worth. My bets would be on Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi or Nick Smith. Close call. Bakshi has those immigration corruption allegations still swirling around and Smith is the most likely to do something really stupid and unpredictable.


Lee investigation amateur whitewash

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 26th, 2009

NZ on Air claim to have investigated Melissa Lee. There are a few unanswered questions:-

  1. Did they interview the staff member who made the allegations especially in relation to Lee’s standover approach during the editing of the election special?
  2. Did they establish how many staff members were required to work on the National Party video?
  3. Did they interview those staff members?
  4. Did they establish whether the staff members worked during paid hours or outside of that time as volunteers?
  5. Did they establish who owned the copyright to the stock footage used in the video?
  6. Why was it not made clear that Lee’s company relied completely on taxpayer funding – the company had no other funding source?

Cock-up or Machiavelli @ Work

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 24th, 2009

I’ve been reflecting on the last couple of weeks in politics – Melissa Lee, Christine Rankin especially and wondering if it is possible for a government in New Zealand to use up so much political capital accidently or whether there is a possibility of some sort of weird plan.

We have the budget coming up this week. It is an enormous opportunity for the government. For the first time since 1984, when our diplomats had been using post credit cards to draw down foreign denominated loans,there are no rules.  Key and English have a blank canvas and enough political credit given the scale of their win and the economic crisis to do almost anything.

What we don’t know is whether they have the guts to invest some of their massive political capital in the sort of change that could ensure not only they win the next election but also become the natural party of government for the next couple of decades.

But they have to be bold. They have to have real vision. They won’t do it with a few places for tourists to ride bikes and other changes at the margin. Every now and again I see glimpses of that from Key – but this is the test. There won’t be another budget with such an opportunity.

I write this safe in the knowledge that the budget is in bed. Nothing I write can change it.

And more importantly that is the case for the government as well. And what I can’t work out is whether their massive and extraordinarily highly paid political pr team has for the last three weeks been focusing on a massive effort to sell a radical budget, whether Lee and Rankin are crude old fashioned deliberate diversions or whether the old “if in doubt its a cock-up” theory prevails.

John Key chose Melissa Lee. I could never understand why. Her maiden speech was intellectually incoherant – it was an enormous untaken opportunity. It was a sign of lack of political savvy. She was a shiny star but with no substance. A real contrast with just about all of the Labour maiden speeches and several of her National colleagues.

Mt Albert was the wrong electorate to use her Korean ethnicity as an electoral plus. It was a selection certain to cause local upset.

And she has performed in a way that was predictable. I don’t need to catelogue her mistakes but not many people who have watched her in parliament are surprised.

So why did John Key chose her?

Similarly with Christine Rankin. The Cabinet was divided. McCully has made it clear to Trans tasman he was away. John Key ended up backing Bennett against all her more experienced colleagues. It was a decision that didn’t make sense.  National owed Rankin nothing. No one voted National because she appeared at their rallies. In fact the reverse could be true. Her support was as valuable as that given by Cardinal Tamaki to English and the Brethren to Brash.

Joyce appears to be running the government pr machine these days. He is good. We saw that through they way he built the Nats from their 2002 train wreck.

So what is he up to?  Maybe the budget is massive. Maybe they took more risks than they intended and the last couple of weeks have been a bit of insurance so Lee and Bennett can take the blame if the budget doesn’t work?

Whatever the future of the government and of John Key could well be at stake.


Hone Rehabilitated

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 20th, 2009

John Carter is emerging as the new Mr Fixit for the National Party. Fresh from saving Gerry Brownlee’s bacon he has now been assigned to mind Melissa Lee. An even bigger task.

As someone whose career has had some ups and downs myself it is great to see.

John was nearly dropped as a candidate in 1996 after his Hone phone call with John Banks in 1995. Last year he was, along with Williamson and Worth told that it was likely that he would be pushed to make way for the younger talent in Key’s reshuffle later this year.

Now it is likely that not only will he make Cabinet but he will lead the House from the front bench. Just goes to show there is room for a battler even in the Nats. Street savvey is just as important as the ability to flit from cloud to cloud.


We’ve all been there

Posted by Iain Lees-Galloway on May 20th, 2009

I actually feel kind off sorry for Melissa Lee. Her tongue-tied memory loss on TV3 last night has probably happened to every MP – it has certainly happened to me and everyone I’ve spoken to about it.

Yes Melissa has repeatedly buckled under pressure but my question is where is her support? On the item last night we saw John Carter walking across the road with her but during her painful interview he could be seen way off on the other side of the street yakking with, I think, Jacqui Dean. Jonathan Coleman is supposed to be her minder but where was he and how much effort is he putting in to making sure Melissa is well briefed?

No doubt senior National MPs will distance themselves from Melissa but they really have to blame themselves for her inadequacies as well.


The gift that keeps on giving

Posted by Moana Mackey on May 19th, 2009

Seriously. Has someone in Melissa Lee’s campaign got it in for her?

lee


End of NZ First?

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 19th, 2009

There is no NZ First candidate in Mt Albert. The poor old chemist won’t have anyone to vote for. Even Future United is running Judy Turner from Whakatane.  Really is turning into a classic two horse FPP race. Voters understand that a vote for Norman might let Lee win. It will either be Shearer or Lee and the more the voters see of them the better Shearer looks.

Is this a sign NZ First has died?


Mt Albert campaign launch

Posted by Phil Twyford on May 17th, 2009

parkI am just home from a successful launch of the David Shearer for Mt Albert byelection campaign. It started with an outdoor rally at the Rocket Park. It was great: funny hats, balloons, and all the fun of the fair. Good rousing speeches from David, and Phil Goff. I thought for a minute David had brought back from Baghdad the endearing Middle Eastern habit of firing guns into the air at these kinds of events, but then realised people were letting off party crackers.

The whole mob then piled into a noisy red motorcade and tootled off around the electorate stopping at high traffics spots like Kingsland and the PaknSave to wave placards and hoot and holler. One of the highlights was when Melissa Lee pulled up to the Pt Chev lights in her fancy Melissa Lee-branded campaign car and found herself surrounded by dozens of placard waving jubilant Labour campaigners chanting “”Bring back Ravi!”


Urgency Bad

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 16th, 2009
  1. John Banks and his council can handpick Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga’s successor when he resigns from the Auckland City Council over the next couple of months rather than have a by-election.
  2. Paid parental leave entitlements are lost for thousands of current council employees because there will be a new employer and no carry forward provision as was provided for Kiwisaver.

The offer for a three or four week select committee with about a weeks hearings in Auckland remains open. If the NACTs agree we will finish within an hour or so.


From the frontline

Posted by Pete Hodgson on May 15th, 2009

Canvassing in Waterview on the day the Waterview motorway decision was announced was instructive. Anger. Resignation. Bewilderment. More anger. All the emotions were at play. A couple of doomed dwellings were in the process of being extended on Wednesday morning. Whether the builders downed tools in the afternoon, I didn’t see.

The tunnel option was of course favoured by the locals. No surprises there. But the announced option raised more questions than answers, because the parts that would be ‘cut and covered’ weren’t spelt out in the carefully crafted letters and maps kindly hand delivered to affected residents in the hours leading up to the 3pm announcement.

Nor was much else. Like how to get in and out of Waterview during the bulldozer onslaught. Like just which houses along Great North Road are going to be in their path. And which others will just miss, but face a future of being over a motorway’s fence.

Further unpleasantry is anticipated.


Where are they?

Posted by Chris Hipkins on May 15th, 2009

We’ve now been debating the Local Government (Auckland Reorganisation) Bill since about 4pm on Wednesday. Interesting to note that none of the wannabe Mt Albert MPs have had anything to say on the Bill. I’ve sat through most of the debate and haven’t heard a peep from Melissa Lee, John Boscawen or Russell Norman. These guys are already MPs, so they have the right to speak and vote on these proposals which will have a significant impact on the electorate that they want to represent. Why should the voters of Mt Albert elect an MP who isn’t interested in defending their interests?


Cracks showing

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 15th, 2009

There’s been a lot written on Melissa Lee’s week from hell and the Chrisitne Rankin appointment but worthy of more investigation is how National left their star Mt Albert candidate and their fresh Westie Minister like fish flopping about on the rocks all week.

I’ve taken a few risks over my political life and every now and again got into trouble – sometimes big and sometimes not – sometimes public and sometimes not – sometimes fair and sometimes not.

But there was always a team that got around me. There was generally public support and more importantly support privately and personally. No matter how grumpy Helen, Michael, H2 or even Lange were with me they always ended our full and frank discussions with how to move forward together.

I suppose it is a bit like a sports team. When someone cocks up the measure of the strength of the team is the abilty to rally around support the individual and move move forward together. When they are abandoned then the team not just the individual is in trouble. The exception is when the indivdual is just cut loose – or dropped from the team. But that has to be public and clinical.

Remember, Melissa Lee was handpicked by Prime Minister John Key to stand in Mt Albert and don’t be fooled by the rhetoric, National harbour real ambitions of winning Mt Albert, Helen Clark’s former stronghold. At least they did until this week.

First up was a failure to prepare Lee for her appearance on TVNZ’s Q+A where she took the wrong tone and approach. She attacked Labour’s plans for a tunnel without having a view of her own and followed it up by continually interupting David Shearer. She also had a dig at David’s love of surfing. No one told her an announcement on the Waterview tunnel was just days away. Surely that would have been a nugget for her to use. Curious when part of her platform was that as a sitting MP she had the ear of government.

Come Monday, and still no one had bothered to let Lee know there was an announcement just 24 hours away so Lee declared she wanted a motorway bulldozed through Mt Albert. This forced Key to tell New Zealand his rising star was out of the loop on the decision. Strange.

On Tuesday, Transport Minister Stephen Joyce announced the amount the Nats were prepared to provide for the project. This killed the tunnel stone dead. When asked if he had briefed Lee on developments, Joyce replied “not yet”. This simply reinforced the impression she was out of the loop. Campbell Live then revealed concerns about Melissa Lee’s actions as a journalist before the last election including the allegation that taxpayer-funded staff and equipment were used to help produce a National campaign video, which doesn’t seem to be accounted for as an election expense returns.

By Wednesday, and the clanger of all clangers. Where was National’s support for her? Was anyone helping work out a legitimate line for her to use in what was always going to be a feisty meeting about Waterview? Instead, she was left exposed and under pressure, and we all know where that got her.

Along rolls Thursday morning, and with the fall out the only course of action was to apologise and shut the story down. Unfortunately, no one from National told Lee that before she went on radio to defend her comments, explain them, and kind of apologise but not really. Head office didn’t get an apology out of her until mid-afternoon. Far too late. By then though, the 9th floor spin doctors are running a mile from her campaign with a “nothing to do with us” line.

Now it’s Friday, and there’s spin that she’s struggled because she’s not used to campaigning, that by-elections are pressured environments, and that she hasn’t stood for an electorate seat before. Hang on, Key and National knew all about this when they pushed aside the loyal former candidate Ravi Musuku for Lee and quietly talked up her chances. Key has to take responsibility for a) choosing her and b) failing to support her properly. This is a serious gaffe.

Then there is the Christine Rankin lead ballon. Paula Bennett was warned at cabinet committee by several experienced colleagues that the proposal was a mistake but in this case Key backed her on the basis of incomplete information. Again now there is no one in the big team of very highly paid taxpayer funded press secretaries who is prepared back Bennett’s judgement or the process she followed.

In fact it is worse because at least one Minister has made their opposition clear and leaked that Turia sat mum while it went through the cabinet committee.

No wonder Key was so keen to call a press conference on his telephone call with Obama. But then the dopey twit accused me of giving TV3 the National Party Asian video produced by Melissa Lee. I first saw it on TV3 early this week. I presume they got it from YouTube. Thats where the Nats posted it. For a supposed young technosavey bright new PM the cracks are showing.


What others are saying

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 14th, 2009

I can remember some bad weeks in government and might blog in morning about this week but thought others would like to share the view of some of our most experienced journalists:

Colin Espiner, Political Editor, the Press:

This is, without a doubt, National’s worst week in government. And it’s only Thursday. [link]

Duncan Garner, Political Editor TV3:

Melissa Lee has lost the Mt Albert by-election. She has been a walking, talking disaster all week. [link]

Audrey Young, Political Editor, New Zealand Herald:

Dear oh dear oh dear. Can things get any worse for National this week? There have been so many cock-ups it’s hard to know where to start. [link]

Tim Watkins, TVNZ Q+A producer:

A week that began badly has only gotten worse. [link]


Gallery Gossip Lee No Show

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 14th, 2009

I hear from the gallery that Melissa Lee on John Key’s instructions is no longer giving interviews. We will see on TV tonight if the gossip is true. Four days is a long time in politics – she has gone from wonderwoman to someone whose list placing will drop next election.


The Melissa Key Guide to Crime Busting

Posted by Annette King on May 14th, 2009
  1. Build a motorway – the more lanes the better.
  2. Direct all criminals (from areas you want to insult) to travel on the motorway preferably with signs on their vehicles saying “CRIM-IN-TRANST” to help Police identify them.
  3. Chose an electorate as far away as possible from the place you want to win as the destination for the mobile crims.
  4. Have all off-ramps removed to ensure a smooth flow of crims to chosen destination.
  5. Dedicate one lane as an expressway for crims who own cars.
  6. Dedicate one lane for a busway for crims who don’t have cars or haven’t stolen one yet.
  7. Increase public transport concessions for crims who are prepared to travel during off peak times to carry out their crimes.
  8. Encourage car-pooling of crims to cut down congestion and reduce the carbon footprint.
  9. Build motorways which cut through communities removing hundreds of houses thereby reducing the number of homes that can be burgled.
  10. Get a TV production company to make a video of your success in reducing crime.
  11. Avoid the PM at all costs because although you were once his “chosen candidate” he now thinks your crime busting ideas are silly.
  12. Avoid the good people of South Auckland you have labelled as crims.

Cynical manipulation by National

Posted by Chris Hipkins on May 14th, 2009

Yesterday the government announced the preferred route for the completion of the Western Ring Route, most commonly known as the Waterview connection. This is a very significant decision that involves billions of dollars of taxpayer money and will have a significant impact on the Waterview community, which also happens to be in the Mt Albert electorate.

Labour sought to debate the announcement using a provision of the Standing Orders that allows for an Urgent Debate on a matter of public importance. Applications for an Urgent Debate have to be lodged with the Speaker by 2pm. The Speaker rules on the application following Question Time.

Labour lodged an application knowing that the government was due to make the announcement that afternoon. The Speaker ruled the request out on the basis that no announcement had been made by the end of Question Time. As soon as he resumed his seat, the government released the announcement.

This is a cynical manipulation of the parliamentary process to avoid scrutiny and debate. One can only conclude that the government wanted to avoid the debate for two reasons. First, they know that the decision to build the motorway overland rather than through a tunnel will be very unpopular in Mt Albert. Second, they want to ram through their Auckland Super City plans under Urgency so didn’t want anything to delay that. Yesterday was a sad day for democracy.


Undeclared National DVD

Posted by Trevor Mallard on May 13th, 2009

For those who haven’t seen it this is the advertisement that Melissa Lee made and the National Party has not declared.