We put iPredict into Red Alert most weeks to give people a chance to have a more general political discussion:-

• Bashar al-Assad to survive February as Syrian dictator
• Australian PM Julia Gillard wobbly but safe till at least July
• Campbell Newman to win Ashgrove and oust Labor’s Anna Bligh as Queensland Premier on 24 March
• Australian cash rate to be cut on 6 March
• New Zealand National / Maori Party coalition to remain intact through February but a Minister is set to lose their position in 2012
• New Zealand economic forecasts remain steady despite more positive BNZ business survey
• NZX and Kiwi Dollar both expected to be up for the week on Friday
• Crafar farms settlement not likely till next week
• New Zealand Labour to win 2014 election with NZ First or Maori Party holding balance of power

Hot Topics

Bashar al-Assad will survive the month as President of Syria, trading by the 6000 traders on New Zealand’s online prediction market, iPredict, suggests.  Contracts predicting whether or not he will survive in March, April and May have been launched this morning.

In Australia, the market indicates that Julia Gillard will remain Prime Minister until at least July but Anna Bligh is set for defeat as Queensland Premier on 24 March.  In the US presidential election, Barrack Obama will defeat Mitt Romney, who will be Republican nominee.

Back in New Zealand, there is only an 11% probability the National / Maori Party confidence and supply agreement will be modified or cancelled in February but an 80% probability a Minister will lose their position in 2012.

New Zealand economic forecasts are steady despite more positive business confidence data this week, but the New Zealand Stock Exchange and Kiwi Dollar are both expected to be up for the week on Friday.  Settlement of the Crafar farm sale is likely next week, but with only 55% probability.

The New Zealand Defence Force is expected to outsource its payroll services in 2012.

David Shearer’s Labour Party remains favoured to win the 2014 New Zealand election.

New Zealand Economic Forecasts

New Zealand growth has remained broadly stable this week and is expected to be 0.5% for the December 2011 quarter, 0.5% for the March 2012 quarter and 0.4% for the June 2012 quarter.

There’s been a slight increase of 0.1% in forecast unemployment for the March quarter this week.  Unemployment is now forecast to be 6.6% for the December 2011 quarter, 6.5% for the March 2012 quarter and 6.3% for the June 2012 quarter.

Inflationary expectations for the June 2012 quarter have fallen 0.1% this week.  Inflation is now forecast to be 1.6% for the March 2012 quarter, 1.6% for the June 2012 quarter and 2.1% for the September 2012 quarter.

The Official Cash Rate is not expected to be increased until December 2012 at the earliest.

Petrol prices are set to fall with the market now predicting there is an 80% probability that 91 unleaded petrol prices will drop to between $2.02 and $2.10 for the week ended 24 February 2012.

As with last week, there is an 86% probability the minimum wage will be increased in 2012, with a 60% probability the increase will be in the 1-25c range, and an 18% probability the increase will be in the 26-50c range.

Fonterra’s final payout has moved for all tracked periods this week. There was a $0.04 drop on last week for the 2011/12 financial year with the market now predicting $7.12 per kilogram of milk solids before retentions. The payout in 2012/13 has dropped $0.02 to $7.14, the 2013/14 payout has increased $0.04 to $7.38, and the 2014/15 payout has increased $0.07 to $7.38.

Current account deficit expectations are 4.02% of GDP to December 2011, and 4.09% to March 2012.

International Economic Forecasts

There is a 34% chance at least one Euro member will depart the single currency in 2012.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reduce its cash rate from by 25 points to 4.00% at its meeting on 6 March 2012 meeting.

Gold is expected to trade at $1732.31 USD per troy ounce on 1 March 2012.

There is only a 40% probability the US Senate will formally approve a resolution of ratification of the Trans Pacific Partnership by July 2015.

International Politics

The political leadership in major New Zealand trade and investment partners is expected to be relatively stable over the next year.  Barrack Obama has a 64% probability of being re-elected US President, defeating Mitt Romney who has an 88% chance of being the Republican nominee.  Romney has an 87% chance of winning the Maine Caucus and a 96% chance of winning the Colorado Caucus. Rick Santorum has a 72% chance of winning the Minnesota Caucus, and a 93% chance of winning the Missouri Primary.

In Australia, there is only a 31% probability Prime Minister Julia Gillard will step down by 1 July 2012. The Liberal National Party is expected to win the 2012 Queensland State Election.

In the UK, the Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition is expected to survive 2012.

In France, however, there is a 79% probability Francois Hollande will win the presidential election over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

In Syria, Bashar al-Assad is expected to continue serving as President by 1 March 2012.

There is a 28% probability Israel will launch an airstrike against Iran in 2012 and a 17% probability North Korea will detonate an atomic device.

Science and Climate Change

There is a 74% probability average global temperatures will be hotter in 2012 than in 2011 and an 11% probability 2012 will be the hottest year on record.  There is only a 21% probability the OPERA experiment showing neutrinos exceeding light speed will be replicated in 2012. There is a 73% probability that there will be a formal announcement of the iPad 3 in March 2012.

New Zealand Politics

There is a 53% probability Labour will form a Government after the next General Election, with a 39% probability David Shearer will be Prime Minister by 1 January 2015.

Party vote forecasts are: National 43.1%, Labour 34.5%, Greens 9.1%, NZ First 5.0%, Conservative 2.7%, Act 1.7%, Maori Party 1.4%, Mana Party 1.3%, and UnitedFuture 0.6%.

The Maori Party is expected to win 3 electorate seats and the Mana Party 1 seat.  UnitedFuture has a 63% probability of winning an electorate seat and Act a 52% probability.  The Greens, New Zealand First and Conservative parties are not expected to win electorate seats.

Under these electorate and party vote results, the New Zealand Parliament would consist of: National 53 MPs, Labour 43 MPs, the Greens 11 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, Act and the Mana Party 2 MPs each, and  UnitedFuture 1 MP. There would be 121 MPs, requiring 61 to govern.

David Shearer’s Labour Party could form a Government with the support of the Greens, New Zealand First, and either of the Maori, Mana, or UnitedFuture parties.  Alternatively, John Key’s National Party could mathematically pull together a Government with the support of NZ First, and either of the Maori or Act parties.

As Act’s hold on an electorate and New Zealand First’s hold on 5% are both tenuous, iPredict has considered the chances of neither, one or both of these results eventuating. Under all of the outcomes, either New Zealand First or the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Grant Robertson and Judith Collins are favoured should there be a vacancy in the leadership of either the Labour or National parties.

He knows there is a lot more to come out about this guys grubby work and he is trying to keep his distance.

Making his very junior Minister take the heat. Hardly fair really.

Paid the PM salary – should do the job.

First Sir Wira Gardiner. Very talented. Appointed by the previous government to do some tricky tasks. But he is married to a Cabinet Minister. He should not be appointed by any Minister in the current government to paid employment. John Key and Bill English have appointed him to sell their asset sales process to Maori.

The Labour government was very strict on this issue. Spouses were even rejected when they topped processes for voluntary advisory groups. It might seem prim and proper but processes need to be seen to be beyond corruption.

And now it appears that one of the two Nat MPs from the last intake who wasn’t good enough to make the extended list to get back in again has been employed to put the chairs out at the very same meetings that Gardiner is running. I’m not sure if Paul Quinn would be very helpful in any role.

Auckland has changed from an equal city to an unequal one in less than a generation with the income gap between rich and poor widening dramatically over the past 25 years.

Whereas most people’s incomes were bunched tightly around the average in 1986, the spread has become increasingly vast, according to data prepared for the Herald by Statistics New Zealand.

Not only is the gap steadily increasing, but so too is the number of people who do not have enough money to eat.

The super-rich – such as the Chrisco hamper company owners who rented their $30 million Coatesville mansion to Kim Dotcom – have built sprawling homes on a scale the city had never dreamed of in the 1980s.

At the other extreme, food charity was unheard of in New Zealand, outside a tiny minority served by inner-city soup kitchens, until welfare benefits were cut in 1991.

One. Two. Three.

Easily solved.

Indemnify the companies. Essentially what the act does now. Risk unchanged and stays with the crown.

If the Maori Party settle for less they are stupid.

Better still of course, abandon the sell down.

But more importantly 80% chance Maori confidence and supply arrangement won’t last.

As controversy rages in New Zealand over the sale of farmland to foreigners, Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin is expected to miss receiver KordaMentha’s publicly announced deadline of today to go unconditional in its offer for the Crafar farms, with just an 8% probability it will meet the deadline, this first iPredict weekly update for 2012 reports. Nevertheless, there is a 78% probability the offer will go unconditional before Saturday 4 February.

In the United States, iPredict reports a 97% probability Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney will win tomorrow’s Florida primary and a 94% probability he will be successful next week in the Nevada Caucus.

In Europe, with reports the EU is set to stumble in its latest Greek debt plan, iPredict forecasts a 34% probability at least one country will leave the Eurozone by 1 January 2013.

Back in New Zealand, there is a 43% probability Christchurch City Council CEO Tony Marryatt will depart from his job by 1 January 2013 and a 66% probability Labour MP Lianne Dalziel will announce she will stand as a candidate for the Christchurch Mayoralty at the 2013 New Zealand local body elections.

There is an 81% probability the Auckland Council will announce before 1 January 2014 that an additional recycling bin for kerbside glass collection will be provided to some or all households in the Auckland region.

New Zealand Economic Forecasts:

New Zealand growth is expected to be 0.5% for the December 2011 quarter, 0.5% for the March 2012 quarter and 0.4% for the June 2012 quarter.

Unemployment is now forecast to be 6.6% for the December 2011 quarter, 6.4% for the March 2012 quarter and 6.3% for the June 2012 quarter.

Inflation is forecast to be 1.6% for the March 2012 quarter, 1.6% for the June 2012 quarter and 2.2% for the September 2012 quarter.

The Official Cash Rate is expected to stay unchanged at 2.50% until September 2012.

The market is predicting there is a 66% probability that 91 unleaded petrol prices will remain between $2.10 and $2.18 for the week ended 24 February 2012.

There is an 85% probability the minimum wage will be increased in 2012, with a 57% probability the increase will be in the 1-25c range, and an 18% probability the increase will be in the 26-50c range.

Fonterra’s final payout for the 2011/12 financial year is predicted to be $7.16 per kilogram of milk solids before retentions. The payout in 2012/13 is expected to be $7.16, the 2013/14 payout $7.38, and the 2014/15 payout $7.38.

Current account deficit expectations are 4.8% of GDP to December 2011, and 5.0% to March 2012.

International Economic Forecasts:

As mentioned above, there is a 34% chance at least one Euro member will depart the single currency in 2012.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reduce its cash rate from by 25 points to 4.00% at its meeting on 7 February 2012, and again by 25 points to 3.75% at its 6 March 2012 meeting.

Gold is expected to trade at $1724.60 USD per troy ounce on 1 March 2012.

There is only a 40% probability the US Senate will formally approve a resolution of ratification of the Trans Pacific Partnership by July 2015.

International Politics:

The political leadership in major New Zealand trade and investment partners is expected to be relatively stable over the next year. Barrack Obama has a 60% probability of being re-elected US President, defeating Mitt Romney who has an 90% chance of being the Republican nominee. Romney has a 97% chance of winning the Florida Primary. In Australia, there is only a 25% probability Prime Minister Julia Gillard will step down by 1 July 2012. In France, however, there is a 79% probability Francois Hollande will win the presidential election over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

There is a 25% probability Israel will launch an airstrike against Iran in 2012 and a 21% probability North Korea will detonate an atomic device.

Science and Climate Change:

There is a 74% probability average global temperatures will be hotter in 2012 than in 2011 and a 12% probability 2012 will be the hottest year on record. There is only a 21% probability the OPERA experiment showing neutrinos exceeding light speed will be replicated in 2012. There is a 50% probability that there will be a formal announcement of the iPad 3 in March 2012

New Zealand Politics:

There is a 52% probability Labour will form a Government after the next General Election, with a 40% probability David Shearer will be Prime Minister by 1 January 2015.

Party vote forecasts are: National 42.6%, Labour 34.5%, Greens 10.2%, NZ First 5.0%, Conservative 2.7%, Act 1.7%, Maori Party 1.4%, Mana Party 1.2%, and UnitedFuture 0.6%.

The Maori Party is expected to win 3 electorate seats and the Mana Party 1 seat. UnitedFuture has a 63% probability of winning an electorate seat and Act a 50% probability. The Greens, New Zealand First and Conservative parties are not expected to win electorate seats.

Under these electorate and party vote results, the New Zealand Parliament would consist of: National 52 MPs, Labour 43 MPs, the Greens 13 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, Act 2 MPs, UnitedFuture and Mana 1 MP each. There would be 121 MPs, requiring 61 to govern. David Shearer’s Labour Party could form a government with the support of the Greens, and New Zealand First. Alternatively, John Key’s National Party could mathematically pull together a government with the support of NZ First, and either of the Maori or Act parties.

Because of Act’s hold on an electorate and New Zealand First’s hold on 5% of the party both being uncertain, iPredict has also considered the following three scenarios: (1) Act wins no electorate seats and NZ First wins 5%; (2) Act wins an electorate seat and NZ First wins less than 5%, and (3) Act wins no electorate seats and NZ First wins less than 5%.

Only under the second scenario, where NZ First received less than 5% of the vote and Act won an electorate, would John Key’s National Party be likely to be able to remain in power.

Royal Bank of Scotland was among the biggest fallers in the FTSE 100 on Monday, in part because of anxiety among investors about political interference following Stephen Hester’s decision to waive his near-£1m bonus.

The move sparked a debate about whether the government should step back and try to maintain the “arm’s length” management approach set up by Labour through UK Financial Investments (UKFI), or take full control of a bank in which the taxpayer already owns an 82% stake.

In New Zealand the Labour government handled Air NZ at arms length. Provincial route cuts, industrial disputes all resulted in political pressure which Cullen and Clark rejected. But not all finance Ministers are as strong, and Prime Ministers like Key take the line of least resistance trying to please as many people as the polls tell them to.

I’m not sure that these shares are as risk free as Key pretends. He should be able to see the biggest risk in the mirror as he shaves.

Can’t both be true.

If the media were misled by the OIO then either the Chief Executive or the State Services Commissioner will undoubtably be involved in the future.

And why can’t the application and recommendation be made public. It just looks like Williamson has something to hide.

If there is some massive public interest in selling to people who can add no value we need to be told what it is.

It might be as simple as the Aussie bankers who stand to make $25m from the Chinese sale putting the pressure on Key. If that is the case they should be told to piss off.

Key said he was opposed to the sale to offshore interests pre election. His Ministers can stop it dead. They have all the discretion necessary.

The time is coming where we have to stop selling any rural and to foreign interests and have a debate about whether other land is sold or not.

As Key said – we don’t want to become tenants in our own land.

$170m if they have the added value of including farms next door to established blocks already owned, especially if some of them are ancestral blocks. Kiwi landowners including Maori bid.

$200m + if you are trying to establish the principle that foreigners are able to buy any farms they choose to here. Pengxin bid.

I can understand why the receiver wants the highest bid.

But it is the government’s duty to ensure we don’t become tenants in our own country.