We put iPredict into Red Alert most weeks to give people a chance to have a more general political discussion:-
- Bashar al-Assad to survive February as Syrian dictator
- Australian PM Julia Gillard wobbly but safe till at least July
- Campbell Newman to win Ashgrove and oust Labor’s Anna Bligh as Queensland Premier on 24 March
- Australian cash rate to be cut on 6 March
- New Zealand National / Maori Party coalition to remain intact through February but a Minister is set to lose their position in 2012
- New Zealand economic forecasts remain steady despite more positive BNZ business survey
- NZX and Kiwi Dollar both expected to be up for the week on Friday
- Crafar farms settlement not likely till next week
- New Zealand Labour to win 2014 election with NZ First or Maori Party holding balance of power (more…)
Red Alert
Author Archive
iPredict this week
Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 8th, 2012John Key is a chicken
Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 8th, 2012He is too scared to answer a question relating to a decision of a Cabinet committee he chaired – the appointment of his own electorate chair.
He knows there is a lot more to come out about this guys grubby work and he is trying to keep his distance.
Making his very junior Minister take the heat. Hardly fair really.
Paid the PM salary – should do the job.
Jobs for the whanau – and the boys
Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 8th, 2012The National party are up to their old tricks – appointing people very close to them to positions in a way that is not appropriate.
First Sir Wira Gardiner. Very talented. Appointed by the previous government to do some tricky tasks. But he is married to a Cabinet Minister. He should not be appointed by any Minister in the current government to paid employment. John Key and Bill English have appointed him to sell their asset sales process to Maori.
The Labour government was very strict on this issue. Spouses were even rejected when they topped processes for voluntary advisory groups. It might seem prim and proper but processes need to be seen to be beyond corruption.
And now it appears that one of the two Nat MPs from the last intake who wasn’t good enough to make the extended list to get back in again has been employed to put the chairs out at the very same meetings that Gardiner is running. I’m not sure if Paul Quinn would be very helpful in any role.
Herald on Auckland’s income disparity
Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 6th, 2012Simon Collins has a useful article in today’s Herald. I look forward to the rest of the series and especially whether Key has the guts to try and make the solution to New Zealand’s poverty multipartisan in an attempt to get buy-in that lasts beyond this government. We all know that there isn’t a short term fix. :-
Auckland has changed from an equal city to an unequal one in less than a generation with the income gap between rich and poor widening dramatically over the past 25 years.
Whereas most people’s incomes were bunched tightly around the average in 1986, the spread has become increasingly vast, according to data prepared for the Herald by Statistics New Zealand.
Not only is the gap steadily increasing, but so too is the number of people who do not have enough money to eat.
The super-rich – such as the Chrisco hamper company owners who rented their $30 million Coatesville mansion to Kim Dotcom – have built sprawling homes on a scale the city had never dreamed of in the 1980s.
At the other extreme, food charity was unheard of in New Zealand, outside a tiny minority served by inner-city soup kitchens, until welfare benefits were cut in 1991.
Hayden Munro
Posted by Trevor Mallard on February 5th, 2012Hayden is one of those doing some thinking about the future direction of progressive politics in New Zealand. Patrick on Progress Report has published a series of three blogs that are certainly worth a look.
I’m here to help
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 31st, 2012Not sure what all the SoE Treaty Clause fuss is about.
Easily solved.
Indemnify the companies. Essentially what the act does now. Risk unchanged and stays with the crown.
If the Maori Party settle for less they are stupid.
Better still of course, abandon the sell down.
i-Predict says government support agreement to fall over
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 31st, 2012* Shanghai Pengxin to go unconditional on Crafar Farms by week’s end
* Mitt Romney to win the Florida Primary
* 34% chance of a Eurozone departure in 2012
* NZ Official Cash Rate to remain unchanged till September 2012
* Lianne Dalziel to run for Christchurch Mayor, as Tony Marryatt looks safe as CEO
* Labour Party to win next NZ general election
* Third Auckland kerbside waste bin expected by 2014
But more importantly 80% chance Maori confidence and supply arrangement won’t last.
RBS show how mixed ownership doesn’t work
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 31st, 2012The Royal Bank of Scotland is getting a bit of publicity at the moment.
Royal Bank of Scotland was among the biggest fallers in the FTSE 100 on Monday, in part because of anxiety among investors about political interference following Stephen Hester’s decision to waive his near-£1m bonus.
The move sparked a debate about whether the government should step back and try to maintain the “arm’s length” management approach set up by Labour through UK Financial Investments (UKFI), or take full control of a bank in which the taxpayer already owns an 82% stake.
In New Zealand the Labour government handled Air NZ at arms length. Provincial route cuts, industrial disputes all resulted in political pressure which Cullen and Clark rejected. But not all finance Ministers are as strong, and Prime Ministers like Key take the line of least resistance trying to please as many people as the polls tell them to.
I’m not sure that these shares are as risk free as Key pretends. He should be able to see the biggest risk in the mirror as he shaves.
OIO on where the decision is at – inter alia
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 23rd, 2012On Friday they told most media the Crafar decision wasn’t with Ministers yet but Campbell Live filmed Friday morning had a document which we were told said it was.
Can’t both be true.
If the media were misled by the OIO then either the Chief Executive or the State Services Commissioner will undoubtably be involved in the future.
And why can’t the application and recommendation be made public. It just looks like Williamson has something to hide.
If there is some massive public interest in selling to people who can add no value we need to be told what it is.
It might be as simple as the Aussie bankers who stand to make $25m from the Chinese sale putting the pressure on Key. If that is the case they should be told to piss off.
Key said he was opposed to the sale to offshore interests pre election. His Ministers can stop it dead. They have all the discretion necessary.
The time is coming where we have to stop selling any rural and to foreign interests and have a debate about whether other land is sold or not.
As Key said – we don’t want to become tenants in our own land.
What are the Crafar farms worth ?
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 19th, 2012$150m if you value them commercially with no added value. Landcorp.
$170m if they have the added value of including farms next door to established blocks already owned, especially if some of them are ancestral blocks. Kiwi landowners including Maori bid.
$200m + if you are trying to establish the principle that foreigners are able to buy any farms they choose to here. Pengxin bid.
I can understand why the receiver wants the highest bid.
But it is the government’s duty to ensure we don’t become tenants in our own country.
iPredict – and why I post it
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 18th, 2012I post iPredict regularly because it is a VUW startup, sometimes has interesting inside information and because it gives the opportunity for a general political discussion based on changes or trends.
I know Farrar is a Director, presumably on a pro bono basis, and that his mate Hooton does the PR. That means that one has to take the selection of issues priced and the media statements with a grain of salt. Most Red Alert readers are bright enough to do that.
To those who don’t like it I suggest you don’t read it. Here is this week’s advertisement:
Another fortnight of Key’s kowtowing
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 17th, 2012A usually (90%+) reliable source has since told me that Ministers have recently been told that the company with the live bid is owned by the Chinese government.
They can of course afford to pay more because it is the thin end of the wedge – a strategic investment in a move towards vertical integration that would result in an even high percentage of value being added offshore. And of course the establishment of the beginning of a massive chain of farms – because the principle would have been accepted.
And Key is desperate not to offend by turning the bid down – as he indicated was likely pre election.
So look for a further delay in decision making until after to bid lapses in a fortnight.
All because Key hasn’t got the gonads to say no.
And to make it clear, it is my view that there is no reason whatsoever to sell these farms offshore. To anyone. Landcorp could probably hock off a couple of its non core farms and then buy Them all using its very strong balance sheet to raise debt finance for the balance.
Tenants in our own land – the Crafar decision is pending
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 13th, 2012John Key said last year :-
“As a general and broader principle I think New Zealanders should be concerned if we sell huge tracts of our productive land.
“Now, that’s a challenging issue given the state of the current law and quite clearly it’s evidentially possible and has been achieved that individual farms can be sold. Looking four, five, ten years into the future I’d hate to see New Zealanders as tenants in their own country and that is a risk I think if we sell out our entire productive base, so that’s something the Government will have to consider.”
Let us be absolutely clear. John Key can ensure the farms stay in NZ hands. English can reject the sale. He has grounds.
There is an alternative ragtag group of buyers around. But my preference would be for Landcorp to buy, bring the farms up to acceptable environmental and vetinerary standards and flick all those that don’t form a logical part of Landcorp’s ongoing operation onto Kiwis. Preferably sharemilkers not corporates. That is Landcorp’s principal role – farm development and sale. They could probably sell a few they currently hold to help finance the purchase.
Become an MP – lose your right to comment on policy
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 11th, 2012I’m slowly working my way back from the summer break. Not spending much time looking at blogs but had my attention drawn to one by a green who uses the psudenom Zetetic on the Standard.
He starts off by stating the obvious – that the next Labour government must focus again on employment – but then denies the right of members of the Labour Party to have policy ideas on how do do some things better and to discuss them.
He doesn’t like the idea that I suggest it is worth thinking about the tax benefit interface as we develop policy. And that every now and again I link to speeches and articles that have a different approach.
He suggests a conspiracy with John Pagani who I haven’t seen for nearly a month and haven’t had a conversation with for three.
And he suggests that Labour MPs should only be allowed to have one post a week. Channelling Whaleoil.
Well I’ve got news for Zetetic – people in Hutt South elected me and they didn’t do it with the expectation that a person who prefers to be anonymous would dictate what I say and how often.
ICT curriculum to change in UK
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 11th, 2012Guardian reporting major change in UK curriculum for ICT. Interesting as it appears to be a knee jerk reaction to a Guardian campaign.
Probably not that relevant here. UK curriculum generally very prescriptive and lacking flexibility and space for teacher initiative available in NZ.
Compulsory open source does seem a bit of a contradiction..
The teaching of computer science in school is to be dramatically overhauled, with the existing programme of study scrapped to make way for new lessons designed by industry and universities, Michael Gove will announce on Wednesday.
In a speech, the education secretary will say the existing curriculum in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has left children “bored out of their minds being taught how to use Word and Excel by bored teachers”.
Instead he will, in effect, create an “open source” curriculum in computer science by giving schools the freedom to use teaching resources designed with input from leading employers and academics, in changes that will come into effect this September.
The announcement follows pressure from businesses critical of a shortage of computer-literate recruits – a deficit highlighted by a Guardian campaign launched this week.
Christchurch
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 8th, 2012Just spent a couple of days there. The second time beyond the airport since February. And then in was just for a quick meeting.
We went for a wander around the edge of the central city. Even worse than I had expected from TV and colleagues.
Experienced the 4.7 and 5.2 overnight Friday. And the smaller ones that aren’t reported any more. Frightening.
Talked with a woman whose water connection to the house had survived September and February but broke on Saturday morning. Stoic but scared.
Brilliant feedback on the work MPs are putting in – and have been for 16 months now.
But there are thousands of people down there who are working incredibly hard to make life better for others in circumstances that most of us could not tolerate.
We need to find a way of acknowledging that.
UK report supports euthanasia
Posted by Trevor Mallard on January 5th, 2012A UK commission headed by a former lord chancellor has found in favour of assisted dying.
Euthanasia is a conscience vote in parliament. In Hutt South all candidates from parties that got into parliament said they would support the first reading of a bill.
My view has firmed on the issue over the last decade and unless evidence to a select committee highlighted something I am currently not aware of, or if there was a major drafting error I would support a bill through all stages.
MPs should consider changing the law on assisted suicide to allow some terminally ill people to end their lives at home with the help of their doctor, a major report into the subject has concluded.
The Commission on Assisted Dying, chaired by the former lord chancellor Lord Falconer, says a choice to end their own lives could be safely offered to some people with terminal illnesses, provided stringent safeguards were observed.
Describing the current law on assisted dying as “inadequate and incoherent”, the commission will today outline a legal framework that would permit only those who had been diagnosed with less than a year to live to seek an assisted suicide, and then only if they met strict eligibility criteria. These would include:
• Two independent doctors were satisfied with the diagnosis.
• The person was aware of all the social and medical help available.
• They were making the decision voluntarily and with no sense of being pressurised by others or feeling “a burden”.
• They were not acting under the influence of a mental illness, and were capable of taking the medication themselves, without help.
UK to review applicability of their FOI to ministerial communications
Posted by Trevor Mallard on December 30th, 2011In New Zealand there is no doubt that emails or texts between, to or from Ministers even to and/or from private email addresses or phones are not protected from the OIA. The issue is to be considered in the UK after what some consider a surprise ruling there.
MPs are planning to consider whether freedom of information requests are being too widely granted, following a ruling that they should apply to private emails and even text messages between ministers.
The chairman of the public administration committee, Bernard Jenkin, is understood to be considering a select committee inquiry next year in the wake of the recent ruling by Christopher Graham, the information commissioner.
Graham ruled that information held in private email accounts by public authorities can be subject to FoI law if it relates to official business.
