Last night’s TV3 news report suggesting three Christchurch suburbs may be abandoned following the February 22 quake is causing much distress and anxiety. The report identified the suburbs as Avonside (in my electorate) Dallington (shared with Lianne Dalziell) and Bexley (where Lianne herself resides).

I was asked at an afternoon public meeting in Avonside yesterday  afternoon if I saw the suburb being vacated. I said then and remain firmly of the view that we will not see Avonside (nor Dallington) abandoned. Sure, these suburbs include hundreds of houses that are so badly damaged they may not be rebuilt; there may be particularly affected streets where it’s better to make a park than turn it back into housing once the bulldozers have been through. That is not the same as abandoning the whole suburbs of Avonside and Dallington. I won”t comment on  Bexley.

The spur for the storywas John Key saying 10,000 homes may have to be bowled. Not a huge surprise when you consider more than 3000 were in that category after September 4 and that was a tiddler compared to Feb 22. But  the process for communicating such information – and the geo-tech reports which fed it  – is with the communities involved and their representatives; not a post-Cabinet news conference which then leads to extrapolation that has pole-axed some of my constituents.  It’s not as if there isn’t enough distress on the ground here already.

It’s six months this morning since the September 4 quake. We lost no lives. We thought we were very lucky.

In some respects we still are. Today’s Press front page  is magnificient and moving. It is wrapped in a huge red and black headline simply saying: Tho those who came to help. From the people of Christchurch  THANK YOU. The words are carried in Bahasa, Mandarin, Japanese, Canontese, Mexican  – thanking the international response, measured in hundreds of people. Some will start leaving now that the declaration was made yesterday that there are no more survivors.

Bless them all.  The struggle still goes on for so many. Today I’m returning again to Avonside where on Tuesday 200+ people turned up, some angry at having no power, water, sewerage or portaloos. Roger Sutton, the energetic CEO of power co Orion is coming along to update the folks; hopefully a council engineer as well. The loos are starting to arrive but it’s been a long wait.

Shirley is another hard-hit part of my electorate. Power is mostly back on but water and sewerage is a problem and unlike September 4’s impact here, there’s considerable house damage. With others like the City Mission, I’ve been ferrying in what supplies can be mustered from CD HQ – nappies are a particular need. My caravan is in Shirley at 4pm today – day three – handing out emergency grant forms, face masks, hand sanitiser and hugs.

Back in the CBD, fears for the fate of what precious little that’s left of our heritage stock may have eased a bit. Yesterday’s Press carried the story about the demolition of the Sydenham Heritage Church, built in 1878, without any alert to its trust owners. The demolition firm said they were acting on council engineers’ instructions out of public safety concerns. http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/4725916/Church-torn-down-without-consent

That’s provoked major fears that such demolitions will happen willy nilly. One couple who own a heritage building on Latimer Square with only moderate damage told me they were quite prepared to strengthen and rebuild – if the bulldozers don’t get in first.

Yesterday the Civil Defence Controller, John Hamilton (remember this is a national disaster so he’s in charge) issued some protocols requiring his consent. That may have eased concerns a bit but will be asking if the Historic Places Trust has any role here advising him.

 Another key issue to get progress on is access to the CBD for business owners. I’ve entered the cordon numerous times – it helps having your name all over your car – but yesterday a Kiwi police officer said that may no longer be enough. So I queued for an hour to get a piece of red paper from a portacom just inside the cordon on Moorhouse/Durham signed by a council official (who simply needed to know who you are and see a driver’s licence). Thing is, you may need a piece of red paper to get inside the cordon so you can get a piece of red paper! I’ve just heard that a very senior CD official was himself held up for half an hour with the rigmarole. If it’s happening to him, what about a business owner trying to get in to rescue data so he/she can restart their business and keep staff employed.  While everyone appreciates the need to keep people clear of unstable buildings and sites where body recovery is going on, the signal that the cordon will today be shrunk is crucial to getting our city restarted.

A statue of William Rolleston, a founding father of Christchurch, lies head-first in the paving on the avenue named for him.

Mother Earth heaved him and many others downwards on Tuesday; a savage 6.3 quake none of us expected; nearly six months on from September 4’s wake-up call, we had thought the worst was over.

A statue and a building can be repaired or replaced.

 Not loved ones. The death toll will without much doubt climb into triple figures.  

Perhaps we were  tempting fate by saying time and again how lucky we were to escape September 4 and Boxing Day’s reprise without a single fatality?

Tonight the first names of victims were released; two men, two babies, all from Christchurch.

May they rest in peace.

The full list will stretch around the planet as the growing international media presence attests.  

 A  friend tonight told how he and his son were eating lunch in the Square at 12.50 on Tuesday when the quake struck.

He saw three people thrown out of the Cathedral’s tower to the ground, 30m below. The police believe perhaps six and as many as 20 people may still under the rubble. Many if not most are likely to be tourists.

Phil Goff and I walked to the Cathedral today. Two weeks ago, I’d toured Phil around with Anna Crighton, deputy chair of the Historic Places Trust, outlining our concerns for heritage buildings under threat from the two earlier quakes. We could not have believed that today the future of our city’s icon of icons, the Cathedral in the Square, is in doubt.

And so much more. Rescue workers were today preparing to retrieve a body from the top floor of The Press building. A few weeks ago, editor Andrew Holden, was giving me a hard time about the bricks from my former office, which adjoined The Press, having rained some bricks down upon his building in the Boxing Day shake. Both buildings are now severely damaged. Further up the street is the site of the Octagon restaurant, famous for its jazz as well as its food. Its owner Alan, stood outsight each evening in a fedora welcoming guests.

 The Octagon had been propped up after September 4 quake. There is nothing left to prop.

Looking back up Manchester St we saw the leaning tower of Christchurch’s highest hotel, the Grand Chancellor. Unlike Pisa, this building is going to have to come down.

We didn’t walk to Latimer Square today but had both visited yesterday. Viewing the rubble of the CTV building, I thought back sadly to last Friday. CTV’s newest recruit, Emily Cooper, just a month into her career, had interviewed me. A few minutes later, Emily appeared out in front of me. Big hugs all round.  She’d been out of the building 15 minutes when the quake struck. Tonight, a man hug from CTV veteran Rob Cope Williams who was also out of the building on Tuesday. Canterbury to the core, he’s planning to revive a regional television service. His young colleague Tom then told me about returning from a lunch break in time to see the building disintegrate in front of him. There may still be as many as 80 people under the rubble.

The last major stop for Phil and I today was at the Pyne Gould building. Yesterday I’d spent two hours there as the rescue of a trapped woman unfolded. On arriving, I turned to the man to my left and asked if he knew the woman. He said “Yes, she’s my wife!”  Graham Richardson had visited the site the previous afternoon and gone home expecting the very worst. His wife of 10 years, Ann, had worked on the third floor. It was sandwiched between floors four and one.

Yesterday at 11.30 he got a phone call, asking him to confirm if he was Ann’s husband. He said yes. The caller then said that Ann had asked him to call!

I stood with Graham for more than an hour as an Aussie rescue crew extricated her. He was hyperventilating by the end. More hugs were needed after she was brought out onto the platform and given a few minutes of medical attention. As they started gently lowering her, my phone rang. I’d earlier agreed to do an interview with the ABC’s lunchtime news programme. (As a journo, I was the ABC’s NZ stringer for more than 10 years.) When they learned Ann was being brought out and down, they kept the interview rolling. http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3146560.htm

Afterwards, I encouraged Graham to come with me and to talk to waiting media, notably John Campbell. Graham was utterly elated. The wife he’d feared gone had been brought back to him. And that’s where I’ll finish for now. A story of hope triumphant; a tribute to the efforts of rescuers, both our own and from overseas, with us in our darkest hour. As stoic as we are in Christchurch, many people are feeling a bit like Rolleston – shaken off their foundations and  flattened.  We are going to need a helluva lot of hugs and help from you all from here on.

Forgive me starting my 2011 contributions to Red Alert with a now familiar theme but returning to Christchurch after a couple of weeks break, the Boxing Day quake damage is an eye-opener.

For a start, here’s what my own electorate office now looks like ..

We only moved in to the ground floor office  in November having vacated a third floor brick building which while not damaged on September 4, was pretty scary to be in during an aftershock. (It is now also roped off.) My new landlord and his engineers assure me that the damage isn’t structural and that we should be back in on Monday. Hmmm. An hour’s early morning bike ride around the CBD at the heart of my electorate confirmed my fears; that my own office is one of dozens of buildings now surrounded by new cordons. It  has done more damage than is being suggested by city authorities. Perhaps this low-key approach actually picks up on a controversial Environment Canterbury Civil Defence report just prior to Christmas which said the media concentration on damage in Christchurch (rather than Canterbury) in September has not done the city any favours.(Who in Australia or elsewhere can have anything other than the impression that our CBD was flattened. I assure you even post- Boxing Day, most buildings are fine.)

Speaking of flattened, desperate small Christchurch businesses owners met again yesterday trying to come to terms with the Government’s abandonment of them in their hour of need. A letter from Gerry Brownlee just prior to Christmas treats their concerns with contempt. Sure, they put up a wish-list but he’s even refusing to have any of the 10 proposals costed. He says Govt provided $12m to assist SMEs (the budget for very welcome wage subsidies which disappeared after a month.) The clear message is there is no further assistance.

The owners of previously viable businesses attending the meeting spoke of turn-over being down by as much as 75% since the quake. One man is putting his house deposit into his business to keep his staff employed. He is wishing he’d stayed in Australia rather than coming home. Some businesses face having to close within weeks for lack of some short term support until the recovery building boom kicks in in 3-6 months.

Contrast this with how across the muddy ditch, Julia Gillard and Opposition leader Tony Abbott are competing with each other about how much assistance can and will be provided. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-julia-gillard-to-help-flood-hit-queensland-weather-storm/story-fn59niix-1225981305357

Of course, John Key is weighing in – as he should, our Aussie cousins were generous to us in Canterbury and to those in Pike River. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/natural-disasters/news/article.cfm?c_id=68&objectid=10699278

But here he is, prepared to suggest financial assistance to the Aussies, when just four months ago he told Canterbury that “whatever it took” would be provided. Since the initial month of wage subsidy, the Government has set a flinty face and told Canterbury businesses they are on their own. That even extends to failing to side with them when they discover that even comprehensive “business loss” insurance often counts for nothing.

Australians simply would not tolerate being treated so shabbily by any Government.

The latest swarm of quakes have left the Christchurch CBD at the heart of my electorate with further building damage, stuffed the much-needed sales revenue that Boxing Day might have provided and left many across the city feeling very rattled.

I am, this time, viewing from a distance. We left Christchurch mid-afternoon yesterday after helping at the City Mission lunch and headed north for Christmas dinner with our daughters and family.  Today I was enjoying a cool,  relaxing day – first really since Sept 4 –  until being alerted ahead of tonight’s news to today’s quakes.  Our neighbour reports being very spooked; her aged dog is hiding under bushes.

We will return if need arises - though the seismologists have long said these aftershocks could go on for a year and we are not yet 4 months on.

Being an optimist, perhaps the latest shocks and their  impact on CBD businesses may cause some reconsideration of the current “hands-off’ approach being taken by Government. It has put up a pathetic $100,000 in funding for promotion and a couple of business mentors as its total package of assistance to Christhchurch SMEs, some of whom are suffering 50% falls in turn-over.  Gerry Brownlee has even turned down our request to have Treasury cost a package of measures suggested by some of these hard-hit businessess. I can’t but believe this flint-like approach is being imposed on him by Cabinet dictate. And to think some media have named him as  Politician of the Year!?

Hundreds of Christchurch businesses, already impacted by the recession and now reeling from the impacts of the September 4 quake, have been told today that there is no real Government support for them. The so-called Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee confirmed in Question Time today http://inthehouse.co.nz/node/6753   that Cabinet will not provide any more support than the derisory announcement of last week of 2.5 business mentors and a $100,000 for a promotional campaign.

Talk about out of touch. He claims the modest bids from the Canterbury Employer Chamber of Commerce and Enterprise North Canterbury’s  for $4.1m funding to assist business recovery had no criteria about what they might achieve, that post-earthquake communications are “perfectly adequate”,  that quake-affected residents are engaging in “silly speculation” instead of reading information that is available and that hundreds if not thousands of Canterbury businesses are “thriving.”

Yesterday The Press ran an opinion artcle in which I outlined the real impact of this appalling hands-off approach – http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/perspective/4434151/Post-quake-assistance-falls-short-of-mark

One of the most extraodinary things is that Brownlee defended the lack of further assistance on the basis of creating a “precedent.” God help Wellington if it is ever whacked with a 7.1 quake.

Paul Henry jumped before he was pushed – and his may not be the only job on the line. TVNZ chief executive Rick Ellis, interviewed on the One News bulletin of which he is Editor-in-Chief, said he told Henry on Friday that he’d be reflecting on the broadcaster’s future over the weekend. Not hard to spot the code in that.

Ellis was asked by his own journalist whether TVNZ’s quest for ratings had created the Henry fiasco. Not surprisingly, he didn’t agree. Yet he has now asked for a review of editorial policies and the presenters’ code of conduct. Ellis says the review is “timely.”

Why wasn’t it timely before now?  Henry has been a serial offender when it comes to creating offence and uproar. The attitude of the TVNZ news management until now is that while he was naughty, he rated. That excused and indeed encouraged such behaviour. Traditional journalistic values of independence, ‘without fear or favour’ and public service have been eroded and replaced by the demand for revenue.

Only now has TVNZ decided that ratings and revenue are not the only consideration. Why though, has it taken an international incident, where a broadcaster twice uses racist language which offends members of the second most populous nation on earth, before the Chief Executive of our state broadcaster decides it is “timely” to review his organisation’s broadcasting standards.

This comes after his organisation has put our international reputation at risk. Sure, Ellis could not have foreseen that but he has allowed the conditions to develop where this happened.

His only defence, should his position come in for scrutiny at the next review or earlier, might be to argue that  he was only responding to the Key Government’s explicit message that the only requirement it had of TVNZ was to maximise revenue.

The Commerce select committee’s consideration of the TVNZ Amendment Bill, which scraps the charter and imposes the ‘only revenue matters’ regime, is due to return to Parliament very shortly. It should  provide the opportunity for some further debate not just on Paul Henry’s departure but the need for better broadcasting policies to prevent such debacles continuing to happen.

Credit where it’s due. Blogging on Paul  Henry’s inexcusable comments last night I said:It does look like someone at TVNZ encouraged Henry to review his earlier ‘nothing to apologise for’ tone but will it take any further action? Take Henry off air for a week or a month? Not on your life.”

SoTVNZ CEO Rick Ellis has exercised his rarely-used perogative as Editor in Chief  and suspended Henry for two weeks without pay. Ellis will also personally apologise to Sir Anand. He commented that freedom of speech has its responsibilities. All fair enough and welcome steps. But it won’t change the trend. The Government now imposes only one requirement on TVNZ  -  maximise the returns.  That encourages the shock jockery and discourages any sense of acting how most state owned television companies around the world are required to operate.

To say the least, there is a loss of other perspectives at TVNZ . There may have been a recent example here  in Christchurch.  I hear from a good source – and I’ll run a response if TVNZ challenges this - that the recent Breakast in the Square programme emerged after TVNZ was approached to broadcast a major multi-band concert for quake victims. When TVNZ began trying to turn it into their own special, using their own ’stars’, the organisers demurred - this was not a promo for any channel - and went to TV3.  Suddenly TVNZ was booking bands and organising the Breakfast event. 

Beyond the banal theatrics of televison, there is the Prime Minister’s role. I’m with Trevor here.  Where is the apology from Key?. He sat grinning through the Henry comments, now accepted by TVNZ as so offensive to require a suspension. Not only did he not challenge Henry, he played along to later questions and ruled out two contenders for the next Governor-General.  What does it take for him to stop smiling and waving? Where’s the inner compass that says, these comments are nasty and I’m not going to be a part of this?  It’s not just members of the Indian community -  anyone who talks with an accent or looks different to some stereotypical view of what is a New Zealander –  can now be legitimately be questioning the Prime Minister’s judgement.

Beaut spring weather and the start of the bowling season – I attended two clubs yesterday. A welcome signal of life becoming increasingly normal for most Cantabrians.

Not so though for some. Around 200 people turned out Friday night to a meeting I called for Avonside residents.

I acknowledge that five council officers, including engineers, were a welcome presence. albeit that even getting one of them there was uncertain  until two hours earlier. One key assurance was to get some signage up to discourage rubberneckers and get traffic to slow down – vehicles passing at any speed throw up dust and can cause more shakes inside homes which have suffered severe quake damage.

Big thanks to EQC’s Reid Stiven who’s been on the go for three weeks fronting multiple meetings across Canterbury and providing much-needed information directly to stressed residents. I trust he’s now enjoying a well-earned break.

As we emerge from response to recovery, the key issue coming through is the importance of providing information to residents. Yes, there are adverts in the Press and brochures available but they are not always reaching those most in need.  The allied need is for engagement with communities. People facing major questions about whether their homes can be repaired or not, or if there sections can be remediated, deserve to have more than a formal announcement communicated to them.  Improving that is a key task from here on.

You may have seen the distressing scenes on the news last night of Avonside residents, some of whom remain without water and sewerage.

Now they may also be left without the chance to hear from a council engineer at a public meeting I am calling in their suburb tomorrow, (Friday) night. The issues aired in front of TV cameras in Acland Ave yesterday were first put in front of the Mayor and council officials nearly a week ago, at one of two earlier meetings I chaired in Shirley.

Acland Ave resident Angela Wasney did a fine job organising yesterday’s meeting. But she’d outlined the same concerns at the meeting last Thursday, supported by other Avonside residents.

Cr Yani Johanson and I visited Acland Ave residents last Friday, and ensured that their concerns were typed and handed to council staff at a second meeting that evening.

Tonight I’ve received a reply from a council officer, with some responses – which are very welcome. He makes the point that it’s better for residents to be able to ask their directly at public meetings.

Er hello.  At EQC’s request, I’ve organised a meeting tomorrow night in Avonside. At this point, council is declining to send an engineer to answer questions.

I understand the engineers are under pressure, working long hours and doing their very, very best. It is not their job to front distressed residents. The fact it took six days and a media event to get a response for Acland Ave suggests this is an internal communication problem at council. It seems their priority tomorrow night is a visit to Akaroa, where damage is minimal compared to Avonside.  

Offer remains open.  Meeting starts 5.30pm at Linwood North Hall. 

Visited Acland Ave area today with Phil Goff. Among those we met was Paul Edgarton, whose Housing NZ home has been riven by deep cracks through the section,

So we know all know what is liquifaction. But can it be avoided (and with it, much of the quake damage that this month has hit Canterbury and  at some point will strike other parts of New Zealand?.)

The answer appears to be yes, if you do some vibroflotation. This is a ground preparation technique developed in the Persian Gulf for such technically-challenging projects as building hotels and resorts on what are essentially mounds of sand.

The technology was used to prepare the sectons at the Pegasus development, 40km north of Christchurch. I’ve never believed Pegasus would really work – why someone would want to commute 80kms a day to work is beyond me, especially when there’s little public transport.

But Pegasus reportedly came through the quake without any damage at all. It says this was largely due to sourcing specialised equipment from Dubai to improve the site by using vibroflotation of the subsoils to help densify them and reduce the risk of liquefaction occurring.

“Vibroflotation is a ground improvement process for densifying loose sands to create stable foundation soils. The combined action of vibration and pressurised water saturation by jetting using a specially designed vibrating probe rearranges loose sand grains into a more compact state. Granular material, usually sand, is added from the ground surface to fill the void space created by the vibrations, thus densifying the subsoils. The densified soil is capable of bearing greater weight, settlement is reduced and the risk of liquefaction is also significantly reduced.

See http://www.pegasustown.com/more-info/pegasus-update

Frustrations are rising in Christchurch – and frankly I am sharing some of them.

A constituent I’ve been dealing with, Avonside resident Angela Wasney is organising a rally in her street, Acland Ave, at 10am today.

Unfortunately I can’t attend – another fleeting visit to Parliament as Labour’s water spokesman for the launch of the Land and Water Forum report. I did visit the street Friday with Cr Yani Johanson after Angela raised concerns at the previous night’s forum I’d organised for Avonside residents. Acland Ave is a cul de sac of state houses, some now privately owned, with major liquifaction. Some houses have slumped badly and there’s a strong whiff of sewage in the air. Only a handful of people are still living there. Angela’s key request was for signage to stop rubberneckers coming down the street.

Council engineers and staff were present at last week’s two meetings. Acland Ave and Flesher Ave in Richmond were two streets identified as still having major drainage/water/housing damage issues. By Friday, we saw some action in Flesher Ave, across the river in Richmond, so all due credit there. I have no beef with council engineering and support staff – they’ve done an amazing job. On Monday, I tried to ring council to discuss the list of issues raised at the two meetings. Couldn’t get through. Went to council building, asked for any one of eight people. None available. Some had relocated (council’s brand new HQ suffered considerable quake damage.) Left a hard copy, got a phone call late afternoon, emailed the council officer the list of concerns, asked for a response yesterday. None came.

Late yesterday, after speaking again to Angela and learning there was still no ‘d0n’t enter unless a resident “signage, I rang my EQC contact. He agreed Avonside is still suffering badly and people there are in need of better information. I agreed to host another meeting on Friday for Avonside residents. Emailed council asking to have an engineer present. Swiftly got a response saying: ”We rolled our Avonside meeting into one of your Shirley meetings last week. We are already committed this Friday to our Akaroa meeting.”

Well, yes, council did last week have to abandon two of its own hastily-called meeting which clashed with mine, even though I had alerted them to the fact that EQC  and other useful speakers were attending and the hall was booked.

I’m not aware of much damage in Akaroa but there’s still a heap in Avonside.  Don’t suppose anyof this is connected to the looming elections – call your own meetings, create your own election platform? Crazy thing is, Mayor Bob and other councillors and community board members  turned up at both my meetings. All were acknowledged ( though Bob got his times confused on Friday and came towards 7pm.) Both times I invited him to speak and he got a round of applause.

So I’ll set a chair up for a council representative at Friday’s second meeting for Avonside residents – at Linwood North School at 5.30pm. If no one comes to fill it, I’ll let the Avonside residents judge why that happened.

Canterbury University PHD student John Holdaway is doing a running analysis on the earthquake and aftershocks on the CU link below. Some useful info such as comparisons with other quakes – ours generated 16 times more energy  than Edgecumbe but 16 times less that in Napier 1931 – and the fact we haven’t been more than 40 hours without a big aftershock – though from a mathematical point of view things are getting a lot less severe!

 http://www.phys.canterbury.ac.nz/Earthquake%204Sept10/Earthquake%20Analysis%20to%20Day%2013%205.pdf

 The link above was to Friday – now updated to yesterday.

- Revised calculation of energy released in the main quake: previously estimated 2 quadrillion Joules, now more precisely calculate 2.8 quadrillion Joules, 40% more (although the intrinsic uncertainty in that value remains at least 0.5 quadrillion Joules).

- Total energy released in aftershocks to date now more precisely calculated as 75 trillion Joules (previously estimated 50 trillion Joules).

- Noted that since the initial 7.1 quake over two weeks ago, we have never gone more than 40 hours without an aftershock of magnitude 4.3 or above. It doesn’t look like that trend is likely to be broken for another week or so yet.

- Comparisons made to energy released in previous NZ quakes – e.g. 16 times more energy than Edgecumbe 1987 quake, 3 times more than Gisborne 2007 quake; but thankfully 11 times less than Fiordland 2009 quake and 16 times less than Hawkes Bay 1931 quake.

Thanks John