For the record, my explanation for the trend, is that it consistent with most polling trends the year after a general for a 2nd term govt. Given the foot shooting this Govt has indulged in, the trend refects this rather than being an endorsement of Labour’s performance or the alternative Govt they are putting forward.

The polls will tell you when you are starting to get things right when they show some Green or NZ First vote coming back, rather than a protest vote against what the govt may have stuffed up the week the polling was conducted.

I compare this post to a rugby team crowing because they had gone from losing by 20 points to 10 points during a period where the opposition was particularly woeful. If I was the coach, I’d be telling the team to keep their focus on actually winning a game before mouthing off how bad the opposition are and how good they just because they are losing slightly less badly than they were a year ago!

What I will say is that “context” is a funny thing, because it changes constantly. So could your trend line. Anyway, conference isn’t far off, and you can hear it from the members themselves.

Hubris always comes before a fall.

To 29%?

[consistent trolling will get you banned. My comments in context are clear, as will the linked trend line continue to be when adjusted for this poll. David]

Once the omega 3 suppliments kick in, you may be surprised how easily you spot the obvious misinformation, and deliberate omissions contained in every issue of every daily newspaper (except the Otago Daily Times), and the obvious selectivity with which television news portrays what passes for “news”…

Once that process of cognition has begun, then the realisation that you are being fed a false picture of reality as ir stands in parliament will become clear…

The reality that the labour party, the green party, nz first, and mana, have regularly torn brand new orifices out of every member of the merry pranksters front bench(and a few of their second raters as well)… But if you don’t actually attempt to bypass the “official” fourth estate to access the wealth of anecdotal evidence of such, then you speak from utter ignorance…

Try harder next time… amusing as it is to read your uninformed rants, you represent a dangerous ignorance.. the kind of ignorance that has had us re-installing administrations that work towards undermining the gains made on behalf of ALL New Zealanders…

No point re-hashing the arguments in a public forum, because we all know what you’re obliged to say. That’s what caucus discipline requires, regardless of what you may or may not really believe.

I’m simply saying out loud what you know: the government is a shambles, but Labour have not taken advantage. A change at the top is inevitable, you know it, everyone knows it, please hurry up and do it.

And FYI, condescending to the voters isn’t smart. It’s the default position from MPs on Red Alert, and it’s one reason (among many) the blog is so moribund. Another Labour fail.

Yes, David, I can read polls, I’ve done it for 30 years, in political campaigns in three countries. I know (and so do you) that headline numbers between election campaigns aren’t the story. If you’re putting your faith in the post-election dead cat bounce, check out Bill English’s numbers in the months following the 2002 debacle. David Shearer has “achieved” the same. Goff would have done no less. So what?

It’s the campaign that matters, and Labour won’t be going into 2014 with an accident waiting to happen, so hurry up and do what you gotta do.

The smaller pool of mega earning tax payers who declare earnings less than a worker on average wage… And then get a top up bonus because the ‘business people’ have got one hand on the purse strings, one in the till, and with the three handed shaker in charge, probably a third nestled firmly in someone’s back pocket.

Yeah, wrong indeed.