Youth NEETs
Despite the foodhardy belief by some that all is well with New Zealand employment under National, if they would just pull their heads out of John Key’s armpits for a second and took seriously that our unemployment rate from Dec 2008 to Dec 2011 has doubled, and these are NOT just numbers but REAL people with families to support, then perhaps they might get a sense of the looming employment crisis that I’m talking about. Take note of the job losses so far announced with MFAT, Air NZ, and a host of other companies that have laid off workers in the last few months.
What should also compoud our collective concern is the increasing numbers of Youth Not in Employment, Education or Training. As of December 2011 they numbered 83,000 as highlighted in the graph above.
Some might be providing homecare to family members but I suspect the vast majority are drifting doing nothing. These are our future leaders – now mostly at risk. Without work, without skills and without the hope for a better future, what will be the chances of them slipping into drugs, alchoholism, crime and benefit dependency? If these trends continue to worsen, what is there to stop it from becoming a ticking time bomb making New Zealand susceptible to the kinds of riots we’ve witnessed on TV occuring in Europe and the likes.
The NZ Institute who released proposals last year of reducing youth disadvantage estimated that the cost of youth unemployment, youth incarceration, youth on the sole parent benefit and taxes forgone, is around $900 million per year. Youth Not in Employment, Education or Training is not only a tragic waste of talent and potential, but we also all carry the cost.
We should also be worried that Maori & Pasefika youth make up a large number of NEETS. While the 6.3% unemployment rate in NZ is worrying, its not at the crisis levels of the PIGS. But the 6.3% unemployment rate hides the fact that for some parts of New Zealand unemployment truly is at crisis levels. I’ve shown int the graph below the figures by HLFS showing 43.3% of Pasifika 15-19 year olds are unemployed. That’s a shocking figure, right up there with the worst youth unemployment rates of Europe.
Pasifika & Maori Youth Unemployment
“……but I suspect the vast majority are drifting doing nothing. These are our future leaders – now mostly at risk”
Don’t be silly. Leaders? Anyone 15-19 yo not in education, employment or training is hardly likely to be anything of the sort. If they are not as a youth motivated by almost certain failure if they don’t at least stay in school or enter further work training during that age, then government is hardly going to cure it is it? Government or politicians can’t get that message over it is up to the communities you have identified through racially separating New Zealand as you have as if they were a separate nation in themselves.
Maori and Pasifika leaders/parents and communities are the ones failing to keep their kids in school and training.
This is a separate argument altogether than provision of actual jobs where you can blame the economy etc for the lack of jobs. The Maori Party though Whanau Ora objectives are at least trying to do something about this. You can’t blame any government for the simple fact some people lack the motivation/responsibility for their own future to even stay in school or basic training at that age.
Should I start my comment suggesting you pull your head out of Helen’s armpits? – Keep it real, you are paid too much for that sort of dribble.
You identify an issue with Pasifika and Maori youth unemployment – what are the drivers here of this, why is it so much worse than European NZers?
Researching this, and coming up with some soultions should be your bread and butter as an MP, shouldnt it?
Much easier to point the ‘gotcha’ finger at John Key though isnt it.
Try again.
This is not just a National or Labour problem it is the Country’s problem, we have to get our youth into employment and job training.
When you see 25-30 year olds still hanging around on skateboards and loitering around we have big problems on our hands, throw in some dope and it is a dead end street.
We need a startegy to teach people life skills, doing something is better than nothing.
Surely we can train these people a trade of some sort after all we have housing shortages and the Christchurch rebuild.
The Government whoever it is National or Labour are going to have to get off their hands and do something otherwise we are heading back to grasshuts and the associated problems.
I agree Cactus, NONE of these NEET youths are our future leaders. Leaders do not sit idly by eschewing opportunities, leaders do not leave school until they have sufficient qualifications to do so, leaders do not blame others for their own failings or their own failure to change what they are, leaders rarely if ever, “riot” in the streets in some sort anarchic way to make a point. If I might add, leaders do not use outdated rhetoric to scare New Zealanders into believing young people are about to “riot” on the streets.
The opportunities are right in front of them for training and upgrading or gaining skills to make them more employable. They have to engage themselves in these opportunities if they want change. If they choose not to, we have to make them. I’m baffled anyone would think otherwise.
However if we accept that society is to blame, as inevitably Labour does, Mr Sio, I wonder why you didn’t include any proposals or policies from Labour to actually CHANGE this problem. I assume you have some. All I’ve read is that its Nationals fault. How about if you’re not in training = no dole, no allowance, wouldn’t that be a start and somewhat more rational than the usual ritual hand-wringing?
Not good Sua!
!
Once again this post demonstrates how easily statistics can be misinterpreted.
You would do well to read Dr Eric Crampton on the jump in youth unemployment rates since the abolition of the separate youth minimum wage.
http://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.co.nz/2010/02/youth-rates-revisited.html
Crampton demonstrate that the historical relationship between youth and adult employment rates is a combination of a level shift and a multiplicative effect. When the adult rate is very low – below 4% or so – the youth rate bounces around at a point about 10 to 12 points higher than the adult rate. When the adult rate is high, the youth rate exceeds that constant by a multiple of about 1.44 times that of the adult rate.
When this relationship is modelled across 2008 to the present Crampton reveals that something pretty interesting happens starting around fourth quarter 2008. Youth unemployment jumps by 10 points suggesting that the current youth unemployment rate is about 10 points higher than would be expected given the prior relationship between the youth and adult unemployment rates.
Crampton compares and contrasts this effect with modelled relationships from previous recessions and reveals that the jump in youth unemployment at the end of 2008 is unlike that seen in prior recessions.
His first cut explanation remains the abolition of the youth minimum wage, yet it seems that those responsible for removing youth rates, and creating this jump in unemployment.
You would do well to hold back on the rhetoric and enrol in a basic stats course.
It depends on what you mean by leaders? I know many leaders who did not complete school or any training but may have returned in their late twenties or older to train or educate and have become influential and effective leaders within our communities and societies.
Leaders, particularly of political parties have often protested on streets, some have even smoked illegal substances in their youth, had drinks and drove, and so on.
On the one hand their is a pitch by some for perfection in our leaders (dave) while one of the things people like about Mr Key is his lack of perfection.
William, yet again you show your ignorance in coming up with sensible graphs. In order to score cheap political points you make yourself look very silly at best, and patronising and disrespectful to your readers at worst.
Why did you put Pasifika girls and Maori in the OECD harmonised rates figures, while ignoring minority communities in other jurisdictions? Why don’t you tell us what the unemployment rate is among Aboriginal males aged 15-19 in Australia? Or Roma males in Madrid? Or how about the rate of North African male youths in France? Or Caribbean males in Staines?