Statistics NZ has just released some new statistics on unemployment and the headline to their press release says it all: Unemployment rate falls, but little growth in employment.
An analysis by Westpac economists is worth noting:
But most other aspects of today’s report were weaker than expected. Not only was employment up a paltry 0.1% – just enough to keep pace with population growth – but this was purely due to a 3% pickup in volatile part-time jobs. Full-time employment was down 0.8%, the first drop since late 2009. Labour force participation dropped, from 68.4% in September to 68.2%. Hours worked were down 1.4%.
So the new data does not do anything to help the current unemployment figures which show an increase of 96.5 per cent more people on the unemployment benefit in the past three years.
What is unsurprisingly interesting is that:
The regional breakdown does show that localised labour shortages appear to be emerging in Canterbury – on our estimates unemployment in the region is now sitting at 5%, down from 5.5% in September and 6.1% in March.
It’s ironic that unemployment can be at such a high rate in Christchurch when demand for licenced building practitioners alone will reach 1100 per-year over the next five years in the city.
National talks aloud about having a plan and building a brighter future but the statistics do not back up their rhetoric. What are they actually doing about the stagnating unemployment rate?
Is the economy recovering?
Do pigs fly?
Does this post have anything to do with its Asian category?
Where’s Winston with his sign?
Be fair Raymond. ALL governments play with the figures by setting a strict set of parameters, or leaving some groups out, or whatever. labour did this with unemployment figures and waiting list figures for hospitals.
If you want to try something for traction, why not just keep hammering away at Key and English about what is the plan B if Asset sales don’t go through or don’t return nearly as much as projected. They will want to say they are confidant etc etc because there doesn’t seem to be a plan B. Perhaps a focus on this would be enlightening?
Tracey. Raymond said nothing about the figure been played with. Where did you get that from. Why did you introduce the idea just to slide in a random criticism of Labour?
By the way, Labour did not have to “play” with the unemployment figures, unemployment was at record lows.
Easy CV.
Tracey’s statement is fair. All governments play with figures to suit their agenda.
As has been discussed ad naseum on this blog (and others), apart from flicking out the odd press release that attempt to gain advantage in public perception, the Government du jour tends to have fairly little influence on unemployment figures (given that both our major parties aren’t really into meaningfully managing economic cycles).
CV. The “Unemployment” figures may have been at record lows but what happened to the “Sickness” figure at the same time?
CV, Raymond didnt say anything about figures being played with, but I am entitled to. You may choose to see Labour through rose tinted glasses, as never being wrong, or whatever, but I can. If you truly believe that Governments (no matter what ideology) don’t mess with figures to make Press Releases which suit their ideology then I have a bridge to sell you. Going very cheap.
Tim G: I put all my posts under the Asian category so I can track them all down under the one tab. Much easier to find them all that way. Thanks
Tracey. I just wanted to be clear that you made comments completely unrelated to the post and to Raymond’s points. And yes I know that governments of whatever ilk can mess with reporting and metrics, defining time periods left out etc. I am a fan of the US shadowstats website after all.
We are better off than Australia.
In January 2012 according to Roy Morgan:
Unemployment was 10.3% (up 1.7% since December 2011) — an estimated 1,278,000 Australians were unemployed and looking for work. This is Australia’s highest ever number of unemployed as reported by Roy Morgan and is also Australia’s highest unemployment rate for a decade — since January 2002 (10.9% — 1,075,000).
A further 7.5% of the workforce* were working part-time looking for more work (underemployed) — 934,000 Australians.
In total a record 17.8% of the workforce, or 2.21 million Australians, were unemployed or underemployed.
The Australian workforce* in January was at a record high 12,429,000, up 383,000 since January 2011 — comprising 7,681,000 full-time workers (up 106,000); 3,470,000 part-time workers (down 53,000) and 1,278,000 looking for work (up 330,000).
Raymond, I’m not National, but will suggest that their broadband plan is one possibly helpful effort.
Unemployment is a growth industry in NZ. Youth and Maori unemployment rates are a national and international disgrace.
Tracey , you are incorrect regarding the base numbers being ‘played with’. There would be strict definitions of what the numbers are and how they are calculated. Some are actual counts while others are from surveys.
What ALL governments do is write up press releases quoting some real numbers or inventing others. The press office at Stats NZ would be subject to the good news mantra.
AS well we have record emigration to Australia, which will ‘reduce unemployment’ as they leave their jobs and or come off the rolls of the unemployed.
@Raymond – students also would have gone to summer school pushing the rate down a bit!
@Ghost – yeah, I forgot about the escaping to Aussie good times thing!
Hey folks, given the global financial crisis and the contraction of capitalism in the EU, the States, Pomland etc, unemployment is really on the rise, here and abroad. It’s likely to get exponentially worse before it gets better. Better get used to it. Better think outside the square too. The new generation is jobless, demoralised, depressed and dare I say it, suicidal.
Keep student loans interest free. Encourage our young ones into education while the going is tough.
Meanwhile, let us, the tough, get going
Think infrastructure development, public good public works, building more state housing…ie think Harry Holland, Savage et al and the 1st Labour Govts successful response to the Great Depression.
Most importantly, despite the mess & the Tory Govt, try to keep smiling…
Iris, your worthy ideas about holland and savage are well intentioned but will lack a key factor in the modern world. Back then being on social welfare carried a stigma, no its a way of life and an entitlement. Fix the attitude of the indigent, don’t attack the rich for being busy and productive, return to true labour roots of hard work and reject true labour charity ideas that cost to much to the national purse. Interest free loans haven’t been proven to help the nation, wff can actually be a penalty thanks the abatement rates and don’t encourage employment.
LeftisBest misses out one point. Many of the corporations and wealthiest people are not “productive”. Like Gordon Gekko says – they own but they do not produce anything. They live off workers’ productivity. They ticket clip and make profits by reducing wages, casualising and exporting jobs. They refuse to allow true competition and productive investment.
Frankly “LeftisBest” your ideas are a parody of those of the Left.
You’ve forgotten a simple thing (if you ever knew it) – people come first, not profits. And certainly not the upward distribution of financial capital and assets we see today where the bottom half of NZers have negligible or no net worth, but where the top 10% own over half the country.
If you look at the ideals of the neoliberal Right Wing – its charity for the richest, austerity for everyone else.
Does anyone know what the final cost f the Job Summit in 2009 was? I wondered because this was the “do-fest” that was going to get jobs created
Tracey, this page
http://cio.co.nz/cio.nsf/depth/61015B9E864D2E88CC2576DC00766EEF
gives a cost of only $52,000 for the 2009 job summit.
The jobs summit cost $52,000 and that is about the same value it delivered.
Colonial Viper, I hope your value comparison is correct. An acquaintance, who’s been on the unemployment benefit continuously for 30+ years, told me he’d attended a 2 week November 2011 computer training course. When I asked if he’d learned any Photoshop, or Excel use, he told me that he’d learned, during the 2 week course, how to use the youtube downloader.
So, when I hopefully mentioned National’s broadband plans, as something being attempted, my expectations were very limited.
When I first heard about that unemployment rate, I thought it might be right, but there also may be seasonal and cyclic effects at play here. Do we normally see an upturn or downturn in the early part of the year?
Also, someone might offer a different opinion, but if productivity is a function of employment and hours worked, it would seem that we’re falling behind in productivity. Is that something National would be pleased with?
Economists forecast little change in unemployment in the year ahead.
Treasury predictions of growth have been based on the rebound that occurs as recession ends. Now this rebound is forecast to occur only when the earthquake rebuild occurs but this is being pushed back by the after shocks and the delay in getting insurance for new building.
There should be a requirement for all rentals to be insulated, and for government building of housing in Auckland (facing shortages) – selling onto the market and repaying the borrowed money. Sitting on their hands while people live in substandard housing and there is a shortage of property is not good enough.
There’s a basic issue at hand. No one talks about it. And that is that it makes no sense for Auckland to be a 2M person city in 20 years’ time, as the population in the rest of the country shrinks (by %).
Cv, your whole attitude is what is wrong with the vocal left. My ideas aren’t a parody of the left. The values of the left are about the people, getting recognised for the work they’ve done. It’s not social welfare that is a left wing idea, it’s the idea that the working class get paid fairly for the work they do. Not get paid fairly for not working. Sitting in remuera being a Chardonnay socialist might assuage your guilt, but it doesn’t put food on the table of the working poor who pay to much in tax because they need to support the non working poor. Don’t blame the rich and corporations, they provide the jobs we appreciate, what is a government but an all powerful corporation?
You are the parody with your viciousness towards any idea that doesn’t fall inside your narrow definition of what is “left”
Are you a right wing troll? Putting off lefties with your strident, vicious attacks on their values alongside your supreme arrogance.
lol the rich and corporations have got far richer, and a far greater share of GDP by exporting jobs, closing down industry and casualising workers.
The rest of your post is simply more junk.
I prefer Sav or possibly 12 year old single malt.
It’s not ‘Chardonnay’ Socialist, never has been. It’s Champagne Socialist. The Islington elite in the UK that dominate the falling Guardian readership, that’s where it comes from.
The welfare system does seem to have become corrupt…or maybe I could have just used the present continuous tense.
well, as usual, we have people showing how stuck in their own little realities they are,wasting our time with irrelevant comment…(tracy).. taking the opportunity to attack the labour party using no more than half witted assumption….
it is blindingly obvious to anyone who cared to open both their eyes that the news media was never going to let the labour government get away with misinterpreting unemployment, and welfare figures..(in fact, they abetted the nats doing just that while in opposition)… some people need to get some rational perspective into them…
the question that seems to have been completely missed, deliberately, or otherwise(i suspect a lack of concentration) is “what is the government doing to create jobs”…
those of us who care to notice these small details will have noted the obvious correlation between job creation and lower unemployment….if i sound slightly patronising, then suck it up, ’cause this is central to the issue….
we have been subjected to over three years of, quite obviously, false promises, and fobbed of(with assistance from the media) with quite clearly, insincere assessments of how successful the governments program is going to be for the vast bulk of the country….
raymond, along with anyone else with a mind for what’s important, has not only the right, but an obligation to ask just exactly what is being done, and what is planned that will give us comfort in knowing that our children will grow up in a country that has a forward looking, realistic, and inclusive environment that keeps pace with the realities of modern living, and adapts to altering realities before they become insurmountable problems…
so once more, boys and girls…”WHAT ARE THEY DOING TO HELP JOB CREATION”!!!!.
CV, you can’t even argue properly with another lefty. You are a troll aren’t you? Simply dismissing the true left values of LIB with no rationale shows what a weak and self serving waste of space you. You are a text book case of suffering from USI and your mutterings across here and the standard are only marginally better than spuds.
@LeftIsBest
[quote]“Are you a right wing troll? Putting off lefties with your strident, vicious attacks on their values alongside your supreme arrogance.”[/quote]
CV isn’t, but I bet you are. LeftIsBest ffs? I can’t recall a single post where you’ve expressed inclusive left-wing values. In fact, as I recall you only seem to post here in bursts very infrequently..
@lollercaust – the expression is “lolocaust”, and the fact you’re using it as a handle (presumably because your other account is banned) is only mildly more obnoxious than your jumping-on-the-bandwagon personal abuse.
We got ourselves a white knight here. I’ve been lollercaust for ages. not banned here, in moderation most of the time, but hey that’s because i don’t agree with parasites.
What are you doing here? looking for some internet babes whose honour needs defending?
Lee, how the hell has your friend been on the Unemployment Benefit continuously for 30 years FFS. Has he never retrained, had any kind of work.. this can never be blamed on any Government.
Ghost “AS well we have record emigration to Australia, which will ‘reduce unemployment’ as they leave their jobs and or come off the rolls of the unemployed” Hang on, according to the Left it is our “best and brightest, and most productive” going to Australia.Surely a win for NZ if the unemployed can go and find work over there.
You’re Anti-banksters then.
@LeftisBest
February 12, 2012 at 9:49 am
“..the working poor who pay to much in tax because they need to support the non working poor..”
Can’t you see how ridiculous your statement is? The Bankers and free market worshipers would be rubbing their hands in glee if they read your comment. You’ve actually got the poor blaming the even poorer (who have the least influence of anyone on economic policy) for their income tax burden and no doubt the country’s financial woes. The non working poor (who are available and capable of work) are only a small proportion of welfare recipients for starters.
This leads me to think you’re either a right wing troll who thinks he’s clever or really really brainwashed. You’re targeting the wrong people mate you should be looking at the bankers, the politicians who allow them to own us, corporate welfare bludgers, the very wealthy ‘elite’ class who don’t pay income tax and the dumb ass zombie sheeple (who can’t see what’s gonna hit them) who support this lot by dreaming up such nonsense and posting it online.
I hear there’s a healthy cottage industry in *legal* ticket scalping, that more and more people are getting into these days..
“I hear there’s a healthy cottage industry in *legal* ticket scalping, that more and more people are getting into these days..”
Surely the only industry in NZ with a positive outlook is the one gearing up to sell state assets and vast tracts of productive farmland to overseas foreign ‘investors’.
Lots of comments about “The Bankers” which I don’t quite understand.
Aren’t they the ones that that employ 1000′s of people here, on well above minimum wage, with great gender balance at all levels?
Isn’t bank service better than ever.. no fees, easy access via technology, ATM’s everywhere, capital for business, homeloans etc?
Aren’t the banks big sponsors of events, rescue helicopters, charity etc?
Aren’t they often driving big construction projects indirectly creating 1000′s of jobs?
Aren’t they also driving green technology in their new buildings?
Did I miss something here?
Did I miss something here?
Yep.
1. The fact that about $3Bn a year in profit is extracted by banks, with the lions share going offshore.
2. The fact that shoddy regulation allows predatory credit lending in NZ(not just banks I’ll grant you) thereby entrapping vulnerable people (i.e. those that are not particularly financially literate are the prime cash cow) into crippling interest debt at essentially no risk to the lender. Regulation bought and paid for buy the banking lobby.
3. The fact that easy credit terms have helped shape an appalling property bubble that enables banks to cream off vast profits for little productive use of capital- see point 1.
Gregor W
1) $3BN a year going offshore, sounds like a lot. How much is pumped into the local economy I wonder, via mechanisms in my 3.28PM post?
2) I would guess that the trading banks are extremely well regulated, controlled and open booked. The non bank lenders ie Loan Shop etc are not,and your lot had many years to address this as well. I agree financial literacy is a problem, as is basic literacy, however promising these financially illiterate a few more dollars a week via welfare, with no corresponding output, is a sure disincentive to any effort to gain knowledge there.
3) I don’t agree with cause – effect here, however the property bubble has enrichened many, many more than disadvantaged.
I would love to know your solution to the Overseas Bank issue.. sure we could all bank with Kiwibank, however how much capital would they need.. where does it come from?
@WaihekeMark
Hi Mark.
It’s a whole other thread and story. When I say bankers, I mean the banking system in general and the international banking cartel. If you wanted to you could do a bit of research into the history of central banking and the fractional reserve banking system which is very interesting. There’s plenty of info available on the public record and in documentaries such as “fiat empire”, “money as debt”, “the secret of oz”, “in debt we trust”, “zeitgeist” and so on.
Check to see if it’s true that all money is created as debt and if everyone paid off all their debts there would be no money. Find out how it is created and by who. See for yourself if ‘money’ is created out of thin air by private banks and they then charge us interest for the ‘privilege’ of using our own money supply? Check and see if the US federal reserve is actually a privately owned run for profit corporation who lends every single US Dollar (printed or digital) in existence to the US government (hence the people) at interest, meaning perpetual and exponentially increasing debt.
It’s a fascinating area to research but be warned, the way you see the world and your way of thinking might be changed for ever.
Oh, and in regards to capital for a NZ public bank. How about Auckland City rates from ratepayers. Billions of dollars and a captive deposit base.
Thanks, however I dispute your comments.
I work.. selling my labour to the highest bidder.
I invest, with the highest bidder (based on a risk profile of course)
If I borrow, I borrow from the lowest bidder.
When I buy, I buy from the lowest bidder.
When I sell, I sell to the highest bidder
(All of these highest & lowest terms obviously include a social, moral and strategic component, depending on my wants/needs)
This is how individuals and businesses, and Govts operate.. it is quite irrelevant whether some print money, or tell us we owe more or less based on that (exchange rate dependant of course, and don’t try to tell me that someone out there is manipulating all international cross rates to achieve their ends)
I do accept however, that there is an imbalance of wealth globally and to a lesser extent locally, the fundamental argument is whether this is all due to or repairable by a Capitalist or Socialist society. To spout forth that JK etc are driven by this international Banker Conspiracy, and don’t want to see society as a whole progress, advance, and prosper is pathetic.
Auckland City funding a bank?.. I imagine to be taking out profits of $3B, you would need to have at least $30b “invested”.. don’t know if this is within the realms of possibility, captive audience or not. Especially with an inefficient (although someone is trying to improve this) public bureaucracy.
WM. You go on about the lowest bidder and the highest bidder. Too bad the market is rigged by those 0.1% who front run every deal there is leaving crumbs for you and for everyone else. You imply you have perfect metaknowledge. Which is of course impossible.
Thanks for shilling for the banksters. Interesting you think that printing money is irrelevant. Pieces of made up paper which are then used to lay claim on real future resources and assets.
Seems like a game biased towards those who control the money supply and front run the markets.
CV, who are these mythical 0.1% who rig all your deals, and how do they rig them?
I shill(?) for no one,but take responsibility for my life, whilst not impacting on others, except where I try to make a voluntary contribution (on top of my mandatory one).
There is as much gaming of the system by those who don’t control the monetary supply.
I have been (on this and other sites) upfront on who I am, what I have done etc, is it time for others to front up? Or is it just bullshit sour grapes theory by lefty troughers afraid of being exposed in hypocracy?
Come on, man up.
@WaihekeMark
“Auckland City funding a bank?.. I imagine to be taking out profits of $3B, you would need to have at least $30b “invested”.. don’t know if this is within the realms of possibility, captive audience or not. Especially with an inefficient (although someone is trying to improve this) public bureaucracy.”
Why would it need to be taking out profits of $3B? As a public bank it’s priority doesn’t have to be $Profit. All it needs do is meet it’s costs. Then by way of the fractional reserve system it could for example offer new or start up businesses in the Auckland region fixed very low interest loans. The profit being long term economic growth for Auckland rather than instant $ for the bank. Imagine as a business owner having the confidence to create new jobs and expand the business because you know exactly what your loan repayments are going to be every month , that amount being low and that amount not going to change over the life of the loan.
It could offer first time home buyers very low or even no interest mortgages so they can confidently spend their additional spare money into the economy. It is economically good for Auckland if people are able to purchase their own home.
No interest payments would be going offshore as profits for foreign banks to the benefit of their shareholders.. Instead any profit above expenses which did occur would be invested back into Auckland for the benefit of Aucklanders.
Because the Auckland bank’s priority would not be profit (rather long term benefit for Auckland) it could easily attract all personal banking business away from the foreign banks by undercutting their fee structure and offering more attractive interest rates. This would bring even more capital.
If council ever needed to borrow money, then instead of looking offshore as they are now, they could simply borrow (at much better rates) from the Auckland bank. And of course interest that is paid back on those loans would remain in Auckland.
Banker criminals have been pulling a fast one on the slumbering masses for years. It’s time we started taking back control of our own money supply and management of that money instead of continuing to allow foreign privately owned banks fleece us. All it takes is some politicians or Councillors with some balls.
Ben Franklin was aware of the threat to society and freedom due to private banking interests and fully supported public banks. It’s a shame Kiwibank is being run for profit which I view as short term thinking rather than looking at how it could be using the banking system to the long term economic advantage of New Zealand by ways other than $ profit. The banking system is supposed to be our tool for managing our money and better facilitating the use of that money to benefit us, not a run for vast excess profits con system for foreign owners.