My take is that Hone will have to make a choice on whether he stays at home until November to defend his seat or working hard around the country effectively helping Labour take back the other four Maori seats.
In either case there is a very real possibility of Labour winning all seven in November – especially given the way Pita Sharples rejected Hone’s overtures this morning.
And it is the end of any thinking person of the left supporting Mana because there is no guarantee of Hone winning and a very real chance of party votes for Mana being wasted. If Sue Bradford had still been a Green they would have been in the box seat.
Why wont he be in the house doing what he was elected and paid to do ?
Hone, and his former Maori Party colleagues, place a relativelyblow priority on attending Parliament.
But in any case there are not a lot of sitting days before the general election.
I’m glad Hone won, Labour had no business running in that by-election at all. You can tell you are on the wrong side when ACT, JK and the Herald are with you.
I guess it’s fortunate that Labour are so incompetent right now that even when they try to shoot themselves in the foot they miss.
Oh, Trevor, behave!
Not even you could believe spin of this absurdity.
But, if I’m wrong, I guess it’s just further proof of the old saying that those whom the gods seek to destroy they first make mad – or, at least, beset with an intemperate love of push-bikes.
…they first make mad
Hmmmm…..a quick perusal of a Nat/Lab polling graph with particular note taken of the trend ever since the balance deleted troll warning. Trevor
errr, as Chris says, the spin..
Hone winning on Saturday means that he’s definitely going to win in November, because he won’t be facing such tough competition then. Everybody knows Labour through everything into this because there’s not a hell of a lot else to do at this point in time with regards to campaigning – Hone’s lucky he squeaked in because there won’t be as many people campaigning against him in the g/e.
The only part of this which is correct is that it’ll help us (Labour) take back seats we wouldn’t have otherwise won, which we should be grateful for.
why would Labour not stand? A bizarre idea if you believe in democracy. Indeed when canvassing I came across the odd voter who wanted to vote for a Nat candidate!
Hone is totally unacceptable as a leader of the left, not because of any real or imagined failings (no-one is perfect) but because he is a law unto himself. The left requires its leaders to hold themselves accountable to the grass roots – can you imagine Hone standing for that?
Hone’s got Te Tai Tokerau in the bag.
Just as the low turnout in the Mana by-election favoured the wealthier vote and therefore National, this also happened in Te Tai Tokerau-it was the wealthy areas of Orewa, Whangaparaoa, Browns Bay etc. that helped keep Kelvin Davis within coee of Hone. In this race, Labour were effectively the right, and Mana were the left. Kris Fa’afoi and Hone Harawira will both be increasing their margins at the by-election with a higher turnout.
In saying that, the by-election demonstrated that the Maori Party are in a dire position. If Mana’s negotiations with the Maori Party break down and they contest every electorate, I reckon we’ll end up with Labour 5, Mana 2.
Shannon, I would say your estimation of the results for each party in this case would be accurate.
The Maori Party would be idiots to oppose Hone, in affect it would be akin to an act of political suicide.
It would be a far better result for Maori, if they both worked together, to maximise their influence. (Possibly even leading to an overhang and an extra Maori seat)
“And it is the end of any thinking person of the left supporting Mana because there is no guarantee of Hone winning and a very real chance of party votes for Mana being wasted.”
Goodluck trying to convince people the Hone won’t win Tai Tokerau again. At any rate, Labour have always held the party vote in Maori electorates so I don’t know why you’re so scared that’ll change this coming election.
Just a rider on your comments Shannon.
The Mana Party are considering heavily targetting the general list vote.
Again Mana would have more success in gaining list seats, if they could come to an arrangement with the Maori Party.
In previous elections Maori Party supporters have given their list vote to Labour. In return for Mana not contesting Maori Party held seats, Maori Party voters will give their list votes to Mana.
This will put them in a very strong position in the formation of the new government.
Trevor have you been drinking ?
Or is this just a bit of Monday morning naughtiness ?
“formation of the new government”
Dont you mean coalition of losers?
Yep, I agree that would be the best strategy for both parties.
By-elections frequently turn up results that carry a message that has nothing to do with forming governments. In this case encouragement for Labour and a fright for Harawira. I suspect for Labour this was the time to win the seat. November will be tougher. If the Maori Party pulled out of the Gen Election for the seat, they might give the win to Labour. The question is who does Turiana like the least – Mana or Labour??!!
“the wealthy areas of Orewa, Whangaparaoa, Browns Bay etc. that helped keep Kelvin Davis” –
Really? How many voters in these areas are on the Maori roll?
Nice for trev to haves- labour winning back all the Maori seats
Get real labour lost alot of the the Maori vote a long time ago and if your Let’s not game is anything to go on Labour still has a long way to go to understand race relations. (you shot yourself or should I say Kelvin in the foot with that one Trev)
@ Evan the answer is neither because neither has proven to be benificial for Maori as of yet.
@ Evan the answer is neither because neither has proven to be benificial for Maori as of yet.
Kelvin was a great choice for TTT! Here’s to another fight in November! Whoop!
!
ehoa “the wealthy areas of Orewa, Whangaparaoa, Browns Bay etc. that helped keep Kelvin Davis” –
Really? How many voters in these areas are on the Maori roll?
Plenty, according to http://www.electionresults.co.nz
West Auckland was tied, North Shore/East Coast Bays was strong Kelvin, and Wellsford up to Kaitaia was strong Hone.
I think credit should go to all those who helped Kelvin – he has closed the margin and thats a good sign. There is no reason why Kelvin cant come out on top in November – he has better profile now and from what I saw during the campaign – esp when fronting with Hone, he did well.
Its interesting that Marae Investigates made mention of personality – as long as Kelvin keeps out of the gutter and not join Hone in there, he will snaffle up a few more votes.
What was telling adn something for the future, was how few bothered to turn out to vote. Voter apathy, and turning that around, will be a decider for Labour in marginal seats.
The votes don’t have to be wasted. What a golden chance for Labour (who cannot seem to get it into their heads completely that MMP means compromise and cooperation) to come to an arrangement with an electorate and not stand a candidate. National have practised this rort in Ohariu and Epsom for years now. Labour still thinks it is in FPP. The electorate MP can bring in extra MPs on his coat tails (despite not reaching the 5 pcnt threshold. The Greens should have been accommodated long ago. This time work with Hone.
I agree with the 5 / 2 prediction of Shannon’s is likely. The idea that Hone Harawira can come to an agreement with the Maori Party seems far-fetched.
Back when Harawira was in their caucus, neither the Maori Party or Hone Harawira wanted to be the side that appeared in public to have caused a split. They met and met again to discuss disagreements, but the numerous meetings they had failed to hold the Maori Party together and Harawira left.
What has changed that would mean that Harawira’s vision for Maori would be now compatible with Pita Sharples or Turiana Turia’s? The same divisions that divided them before will still be there now. Come November, Mana will stand candidates in any electorate that party thinks it can win, and so will the Maori party. Come December, the Maori party will be much smaller.
What has changed Sean, is that the Maori Party have no choice. If they don’t agree to work with Mana they will have no MPs in parliament.
If Labour wins the Maori seats again does it give them any more seats in parliament? I presume no (not up to speed with the maori electorates viz a viz the party vote scenario) so surely Labour’s best strategy is to assist the Maori Party in winning them and then improve relations with them to allow a coalition government post-November?
Labour needs all the allies it can get under mmp obviously The minor partys will play a major role in this years election that is if they are large enough unfortunately
for hone he will find that it is not that easy to set up a political force within a few months out from an election but good luck to him anyway from what I can tell Parties like united future and the Maori party who are willing to work with either nat or lab will hold the balance of power.
I get what you are saying Jenny, but that doesn’t mean Harawira needs the Maori party. The Maori party might have no choice, but the Mana party does.
The party vote for Labour, National, NZ First, and the Maori Party in TTT 2008 was 18,782 votes. These are the forces unleashed on Hone and Mana Party in support of Kelvin Davis in the by election, but Labour and Kelvin could only manage 4,774 only 25.5% of that vote (1 in every 4).
In 2008 Labour had 9,200 party votes, with Kelvin only maintaining just over 50% (4,774 votes). Kelvin only managed to turn out 1 out of 2 of his own party supporters.
The Maori Party support was 6,204 in 2008, Hone and Mana in the by election had 5,611 votes, just over 90% of the Maori Party vote.
Labour has no show in TTT, time to swallow your pride and work behind the scenes with Mana to make sure a National Act government is not formed in the next elections.
Kelvin please do not believe the hype coming from your own party, and play nice with Hone.