Hooton’s analysis this week :-
John Key would be able to continue as Prime Minister after this year’s General Election with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or Maori parties, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, again suggests.
The snapshot also indicates that the Maori Party would be down to three MPs, with Hone Harawira expected to win Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or representing a party other than the Maori Party, while Labour’s Rino Tirikatene is now marginally favoured over the Maori Party’s Rahui Katene in Te Tai Tonga.
All party leaders are strongly expected to retain their positions through to the election. The most vulnerable continues to be Labour’s Phil Goff, but with just a 15% probability he will lose his position, down from 16% last week and 19% the week before. There is a 13% probability Maori Party co-Leader Tariana Turia will lose her position, up from 12% last week.New parties are not expected. The probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and Mr Harawira is down to 34%, from 37% last week. The probability of a new right-wing party around former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash has lifted slightly to 11%, from 10% last week and 9% the week before.
Forecast party vote shares are: National 45.0% (down from 45.9% last week), Labour 32.3% (up from 30.5%), the Greens 8.0% (steady), New Zealand First 4.2% (down from 4.5% last week), Act 3.2% (down from 3.4%), the Maori Party 2.2% (down from 2.4%) and UnitedFuture 1.3% (down from 2.4% last week).
Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 74% probability of retaining Epsom for his party (steady from last week) and UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne a 62% probability of being re-elected in Ohariu, up from 53% probability last week.
Mr Harawira is expected to retain Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party (65% probability, compared with 53% probability last week). Labour is expected to retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti (53% probability, steady compared with last week) and pick up Te Tai Tonga (50% probability), leaving the Maori Party with three seats.
Winston Peters is not expected back in Parliament, with just a 30% probability he will be elected, down from 32% last week.Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 59 MPs, Labour 42 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Act 4 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs and Mr Harawira. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
National could govern with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or Maori parties. No politically plausible combination would exist to allow a Labour-led government to be formed.
The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (80% probability, up from 79% last week).
iPredict has also analysed what would happen under scenarios where Te Tai Tonga was retained by the Maori Party and/or Mr Harawira won Te Tai Tokerau for a New Left Party which won all of the 2% of the vote which is currently undecided. While the latter assumption would bring in two additional New Left MPs, there is no scenario in which Mr Key would not be able to form a government with the support of the Act Party alone.
Of the four electorates for which stocks were launched last week, Otaki is most marginal with a 60% probability it will be retained by National’s Nathan Guy over Labour’s Darren Hughes. There are no surprises in any of the other three electorates, with a 98% probability Labour’s Phil Goff will retain Mt Roskill, a 95% probability a National candidate will retain North Shore and a 93% probability a National candidate will retain Northland.
Other than Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Ohariu and Otaki mentioned above, electorates where the predicted winner has less than 65% probability of winning are: New Plymouth (60% probability of being won by Labour’s Andrew Little from National’s Jonathan Young, up from 58% last week), Waitakere (50% probability of being won by Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni from National’s Paula Bennett, down from 52% last week), and West Coast-Tasman (55% probability of being retained by National’s Chris Auchinvole over Labour’s Damien O’Connor, down from 58% probability last week and 69% the week before).
There is a 98% probability National’s Jami-Lee Ross will win the Botany by-election, down from 99% last week.
There is an 85% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, up from 84% last week.
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Unfortunately we still have about 9 months of economic sabotage by John Key and the Nats. My fear is this, that when we give him the Ass he will smile and wave, and then leave New Zealand for Hawaii, and we will be paying for his folly for years to come because we cannot stop him signing these so called free trade agreements with the Americans, who we all know are going to be rapacious on our economy for decades to come.. Yeah thanks John Key.
Hey is Nick Smith Balance deleted. Don’t do that sort of smear here. Trevor
This election is far from being an obvious outcome. Here’s a different outcome from the mainstream ideology of iPredict, which may give hope to the left – http://bit.ly/eLFXuh
In less than a month it has gone from your comments on iPredict
(Mallard) “The brief summary is that people who are putting their money where their mouths are think that the general election is likely to be much closer than some polls show and that a Labour led government is a real possibility, on current results and especially with the inevitable election year tightening.”
to
(Hooton) “No politically plausible combination would exist to allow a Labour-led government to be formed.”
Stand by the comment above – actually not inconsistent with Hootons
And Waiheke now I understand why you voted National.
Sorry Trevor you have me confused. Never voted National in my life. How on earth did you get that conclusion from my last post, which points to a Labour win???
So are you saying you agree with his comment ““No politically plausible combination would exist to allow a Labour-led government to be formed.” ?????
Well I suppose at least he got up and did attempt to explain his party ‘s point of view. Unlike you Trevor, or you got nothing to say?????? Or are you just here playing censor????
Balance deleted. Have a month holiday from Red Alert for personal abuse and stupidity. Trevor
Waiheke.The answer to your question lies in the stars!
Waiheke – Trevor’s response is what one expects of a severely partisan mind.
@ chris 4.29 Yes this week
@Waiheke – thought it was a pisstake -ianmac got it, i also looked at the link
Trevor, Trevor, Trevor it’s hard having been around parliament for so long to have a balanced view of life -so take this opportunity to cross the corpus collosum and entertain some possibilities from the far far left. See – that proves I’m not Michelle Boag!