Going to be interesting to see what happens when the farm sales hits the mainstream polls. In the interim Hooton’s view on iPredict numbers :-
* National and Greens gain from “state of the nation” speeches while Labour slips back
* John Key forecast to govern, needing support of just one of the Act, UnitedFuture and Maori parties
* Probability of new left party involving Hone Harawira rises
* West Coast-Tasman now marginal
This week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests the National and Green parties both gained from their leaders’ “state of the nation” speeches last week, while the Labour Party went backwards. National’s forecast share of the party vote has risen to 45.9% (from 45.6% last week), the Greens are up to 8.0% (from 7.5% last week) while Labour is down to 30.5% (from 32.0% last week). John Key would be able to continue as Prime Minister with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or the Maori Party. The probability of a new left-wing party has risen.
The election is now overwhelmingly expected to be held in Q4 2011 (95% probability up from 90% last week). All current party leaders are expected to retain their positions between now and the election, with the probability that the most vulnerable, Labour’s Phil Goff, will lose his position down to 16% (compared with 19% last week). There continues to be a 12% probability Maori Party co-Leader Tariana Turia will lose her position.
At the time the snapshot was taken, the probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and current Maori Party Mr Harawira was 37%, up from 28% last week. The probability of a new right-wing party around former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash remains lower, at 10% compared with 9% last week.
In addition to National, Labour and the Greens outlined above, forecast party vote shares are: New Zealand First 4.5% (down from 5.0% last week), Act 3.4% (up from 3.2%), UnitedFuture 2.4% (steady) and the Maori Party 2.4% (up from 2.3%).
Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 74% probability of winning Epsom for his party, up from 73% probability last week, and UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne a 53% probability of being re-elected in Ohariu, up from 52% probability last week.
Mr Harawira is expected to retain Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party (53% probability, compared with 50% probability last week). Labour is expected to retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti (53% probability, up from 50% probability last week), leaving the Maori Party with four seats.
Winston Peters is not forecast to be returned to Parliament.
Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 60 MPs, Labour 40 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, the Maori Party 4 MPs, Act 4 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and Mr Harawira. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.
National could govern with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or Maori parties. No politically plausible combination would exist to allow a Labour-led government to be formed.
The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (79% probability, down from 81% last week).
Because of the increase in the probability that a new left-wing party will be formed, iPredict has also analysed what would happen were: such a party to achieve 2% of the party vote (taken from the current market prediction that “other” parties will receive 2.1% of the vote); Mr Harawira to win his seat for this party; and all other parties’ support, including Labour and the Greens, to remain constant.
Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 58 MPs, Labour 39 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, the Maori Party 4 MPs, Act 4 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and the new left party 3 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. Mr Key could continue to govern with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or Maori parties.
Were the Maori Party to win Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Mr Key would need the support of two of the Act, UnitedFuture or Maori parties to govern.
There are no surprises in any of the electorate races for which stocks were launched last week. A National candidate is forecast to win Coromandel (92% probability), National’s Anne Tolley is expected to retain East Coast (90% probability), National’s Jonathan Coleman is expected to retain Northcote (89% probability) and Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway is forecast to win Palmerston North (79% probability).
Looking at marginal seats, other than Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Ohariu and Te Tai Tokerau mentioned above, West Coast Tasman has become marginal over the last week, with a 58% probability it will be retained by National’s Chris Auchinvole (down from 69% last week). Other marginal seats are New Plymouth (58% probability to be won by Labour’s Andrew Little from National’s Jonathan Young, steady compared with last week), Te Tai Tonga (58% probability to be retained by the Maori Party’s Rahui Katene, down from 63% last week) and Waitakere (52% probability to be won by Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni from National’s Paula Bennett, steady compared with last week).
There is a 99% probability National’s Jami-Lee Ross will win the Botany by-election, up from 98% last week. iPredict correctly forecast that Mr Ross would be selected as National’s candidate over Maggie Barry, Aaron Bhatnagar and two other candidates.
There is an 84% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, steady compared with last week.
Nothing’s going to happen when farm sales hit the mainstream polls. This is also ignoring the (ridiculous) white elephant in the room, the rugby world cup. Anyone with half a brain knows that this is going to have a tangible effect on the polls.
If we win, National gets back in, there’s little doubt about that; so you Labour supporters better pray for a loss. If we lose (knowing our ability to choke, a real possibility) things get interesting. The FU vote (Winston) becomes a bigger player, general dissatisfaction with the nation will spill over into the government and Labour will have a better chance.
It’s naive to think in a country with such a vested interest in the All Blacks, it won’t play a part, people are fickle like that.
While National sits 15-20 points ahead in all the reliable polls now, and probably for the rest of the year, that could all change in October, that’s when I’ll start paying real attention to the polls.
I’d put a cheeky bet on Katrina Shanks beating Peter Dunne. National had a big win in the party vote and people will only be getting more tired with Mr. Dunne.
Keep repeating it, hooton, and you may yet believe it
@Loius it is not as foregone a conclusion as you may think. Labour and its potential coalition partners need to claw back about 8 points from the government, based on current polling. Hard, but not impossible. As things stand, the nation isn’t really seeing any recovery from the recession, Anne Tolley isn’t doing herself any favours with the administration of her high profile portfolio and the prospect of asset sales will definitely give some of the people who switched to National in 2008 pause too. Some will probably switch, others may stay at home. Hide will probably keep his seat and bring in one or two others, but I think you might be right and a lot of the law and order votes could go to New Zealand First after the David Garrett fiasco.
I am glad that policies have been released as early as they have. Labour’s seasoned politicians will know that elections aren’t won or lost on how they perform in at question time (although I am a fan of Trevor’s efforts in the House). Rather, they need to get the narrative out there on how they’re a better deal than National. New Zealand has had very few one-term governments so to dislodge one there needs to be a positive message of how Labour is going to be better for the people of NZ (consider the retiring baby boomers, young families and women), rather than entirely how rubbish a second term of a National government will be. Appeal to the better angels of the electorate’s nature.
Pete, from a righty to the left, I see Labour having two options. Either play Key’s presidential style game, of one-on-one, me-vs-the-other-guy electioneering; something which Labour cannot do with Goff. I don’t care how wonderful the left thinks he is, he cannot, in a thousand years defeat Key one-on-one because he has no charisma. It’s like Mondale vs Reagan or Dole vs Clinton or even McCain vs Obama, in those contests there was only ever going to be one winner. Not to mention the fact that the hair dye fiasco proved Key is more skilled at the game of politics.
The other option is to do what lefties do best and collectivise. However, the caveat to that is that the Labour party is stacked with people roundly rejected and with some coming in that were actually thrown out. So, my suggestion is a massive clean-out, become new Labour like in Britain (shudders at the prospect). Dump all the has-beens, dump Dyson, dump Horomia, dump Chadwick, dump King and replace her with Mallard. Shove all the do nothing back-bench no-names currently in parliament down the list and get some new list MPs in line. If you don’t shake the ghost of Helen Clark you won’t win. Come out with something fresh and new with new faces, instead of running someone in Manurewa who was booted out of parliament in 2008, again.
I say replace Goff with Shane Jones. First Maori PM ever would be great.
” Key is more skilled at the game of politics.”
Interesting view, given that Goff is a career politician.
Interesting view, given that Goff is a career politician.
Not really. I have an extremely cynical view of all career politicians, regardless of party lines, I’d like to see them survive in the real world.
Sure, there’s something to be said for experience, the best example in politics today is Obama and his weakness in the face of the republicans despite (once) having a filibuster proof majority, which is something I put down purely to experience. But at the same time, every sport has its naturals, and its workhorses. Goff is a workhorse, Key is a natural. I (much to my surprise) thought Phil Goff was a very good foreign minister, but he’ll never be PM, some people have it and some don’t – not to mention Goff (despite what I said earlier) has Clark still hanging round his neck.
Shane Jones, on the other hand before his little indulgence, could have easily been PM within the next few years. Now he’s probably knocked three years off before he takes the top job. I mean, I remember people picking Key to be PM in 2005, and look what happened. It’s not hard to pick them. Like any sport, the good players stand out.
And before someone gets hysterical about politics not being a game, it is. It really is. Government isn’t, but politics is. The best players; Mallard, Collins, Bridges and (a long time ago) Hide, exemplify it.