Once again those who are putting their money into the political marketplace are picking a much closer result than the traditional pollsters. We moderate this thread fairly loosely to allow a more wide ranging political debate. Normal rules round no nonsense, no abuse, and language that I would be happy with in an intermediate school assignment apply.
Despite TVNZ and TV3 polls to the contrary, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, again indicates that next year’s General Election will go to the wire.
Market prices suggest that the Maori Party will have to decide between supporting a continuation of the current National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party government or forcing new elections. The market believes it will decide to back a John Key-led government with a 10-seat majority in a 122-seat Parliament.
However, if Act Leader Rodney Hide is not re-elected in Epsom for his party, or if the Maori Party’s Na Rongowhakaata Raihania wins Ikaroa-Rawhiti, currently forecast to be narrowly held by Labour, the Maori Party will genuinely hold the balance of power. The result in Ohariu does not affect the parliamentary balance.
Sentiment in favour of the General Election being held in Q4 2011 has hardened to 83% probability, compared with 74% last week and 75% the week before. The probability of an early election in Q3 2011 is now just 16%, down from 26% last week and 21% the week before.
All current party leaders are expected to remain in their roles until the election, although there is a 31% probability Labour Leader Phil Goff will lose his position prior to the election (down from 34% last week) and a 17% probability that Maori Party co-Leader Tariana Turia will lose her position (up from 10% last week).
Forecast party vote shares are: National 44.5% (steady from last week), Labour 35.9% (up from 35.4% last week), Greens 7.7% (down from 7.8% last week), New Zealand First 4.4% (up from 4.1% last week), Act 3.3% (down from 3.6% last week), Maori Party 2.3% (down from 2.5% last week) and UnitedFuture 0.4% (down from 1.1% last week).
Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 58% probability of winning Epsom for his party, down from 60% last week.
UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne is forecast to be re-elected in Ohariu, with 39% probability, compared with 32% probability for National to win the seat and 28% probability for Labour.
The Maori Party is forecast to retain all five of its seats. The race in Ikaroa-Rawhiti remains close, with Labour continuing to have a 53% probability of retaining it. Labour is forecast to retain Hauraki-Waikato.
Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.
Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 56 MPs, Labour 46 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs, Act 4 MPs and UnitedFuture 1 MP. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.
National, Act and UnitedFuture would not have enough to govern, with a combined 61 MPs, and would need the support of the Maori Party. If the Maori Party backed Labour and the Greens, Parliament would be hung 61-all and there would likely be new elections. If the Maori Party decided to abstain on confidence and supply, this would also allow National, Act and UnitedFuture to govern. In practice, the Maori Party’s decision would be between supporting a government led by John Key or new elections.
The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (79% probability, up from 76% last week) indicating it expects that the Maori Party would favour a National-led government over new elections.
iPredict has again analysed what parliamentary balance would exist in all eight possible combinations of results in the Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorates.
In all four scenarios in which Act Leader Rodney Hide does not win Epsom for his party, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power and would have a genuine choice between supporting a National-led or Labour-led government.
The Maori Party would also have a genuine choice between a National-led or Labour-led government if it won Ikaroa-Rawhiti.
Under no scenario based on the current party-vote forecasts does the result in Ohariu affect the post-election parliamentary balance.
There are no surprises in any of the electorate races for which stocks were launched last week. Labour’s Ross Robertson is expected to be re-elected in Manukau East (90% probability), National’s Nick Smith is expected to be re-elected in Nelson (92% probability), Labour’s Phil Twyford is expected to be elected in Te Atatu (79% probability) and National’s Paula Bennett is expected to be re-elected in Waitakere (68% probability).
There is an 83% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, up from 81% from last week and 80% the week before.
iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz
The closer the pundits say it will be the more likely Rortney will retain Epsom, because a vote for him drags 4 others in. A vote for national there would be a vote for one, or possibly less than one (I know know).
With TVNZ and Granny Herald seeing no value in a story about a Minister lying on tv and giving away our hard earned money on the back of the lie….
The reality Trev is that your guys have struggled to poll above about 33% in two years. National have consistently polled above 50%. (currently 56%) and always at least 20% points clear of Labour Maori Party with overhang will be back. Winston will not be back. NZ has got rid of him and his racist and opportunist politics. He has no money and will not be back. Personally I hope he gets about 4.5% as National will be the beneficary of that wasted vote. I think support for Labour will tank (and he will do a Bill English ay 20.9%) reasons for this are:
1. Labour is going to lose – and no one wants to back a loser so you voters will not get out to vote.
2. Labour has not given the public a reason to support them. The ghost of Helen Clark remains.
3. Goff is just too uninspiring. Chris Carter is correct (his delivery needs improvement). Line Key up against Goff and you start to almost feel sorry for Goff (except he is Labour)
4. People realise that Labour buggered the economy. Key understands it is untenable to undo the damage of Cullen’s spend up (committing the country to massive welfare with WFF train-sets, etc. Change has to come slowly and by buying in the public’s support.
5. Governments in NZ are usually given at least 2 terms (Nats usually get three. The people have no good reason (or alternate) to change the government.
Enjoy the rest of your parliamentary career on the opposition benches Trev. Without a cleanout your chances of re-election are almost nil. Who will take one for the team?
I agree with Monty and it looks like Labour will be………..
the last cab off the rank!!!
National’s lying to the public and thieving from the public balance sheet, and gifting of tax payer funds to the top 5% of income earners of this country is going to catch up with them sooner or later Monty. And 2011 is sooner
Well your list is full of it from top to bottom, but for starters, when was the last time a 3rd term National Government was sworn in?
Oh let me look that up now. 1969! The year man set foot on the moon.
Of course most voters in next years 2011 elections won’t even have been knee high when that Holyoake government took office.
LAB are going to take the majority back mate and IMO since Key will not tolerate another spell in Opposition (he’s here mainly to fill out his CV, ahem) he will bail out of National and that will be it for you guys for many terms.
How many flip flops has Goff done on the Foreshore..3 or 4
You reap, what you sow, and the Maori Party will never forget the “last of the rank” jibe
balance deleted stay in this millenium Trevor
Cant wait to see your face on election night CV.
please don’t be abusive Trevor Viper – National has had three terms in 1975 to 1984 (unfortunately as Muldoon was a terrible PM) and ofcourse we have the 1990 to 1999 three terms. And thanks for pointing out that National had 4 terms in 1960 to 1972. Even on your calculations remember on Labour had a one term government in living memory and that was 1972-75. So it is reasonable to believe if for no other reason than historical precedence and National wonderfully strong polling that they will be returned to government in 2011. Labour are kiding themselves if they thing they even have a chance.
Why are the Labour MPs always so bloody Grumpy – because they know where they are stuck for at least 3 but probably 6 more years.
What Monty said. Both times.
Ah I see what went wrong with my math Monty, thanks for pointing it out: National sometimes lasts 3 terms in Govt. But National Prime Ministers hardly ever do.
So when is Key leaving for greener pastures?
Why is Monty advocating for the Nats when he’s been on this very blogsite stating he’s suffering because of their economic policies, having to cut his supermarket bills and even drinking coffee at work to avoid the added expense of buying it himself?
An answer please, Monty.
@ CV ” for starters, when was the last time a 3rd term National Government was sworn in?
Oh let me look that up now. 1969! The year man set foot on the moon.”
So – you miss 1990 – 1999. It is that kind of insightful ignorance of fact that just shows up what a one-eyed view you have of the world.
I know that this is a labour blog – but try not to make clams that are so blatantly untruthful.
“So when is Key leaving for greener pastures?” Im sure he will signal this well in advance as opposed to chucking in the towel on the night and turning his back on people who had just voted for him.
Monty believes that warm pitter patter falling on to his head from above is ‘trickle down’.
Well it is Monty, but it ain’t money being aimed your way from above.
What do the National Party and the Seoul Olympics NZ equestrian team have in common?
Without their best stead – they are both charisma free.
If mark todd was in the Seoul olympic team, I can come up with a better comment than that, but straight into mod territory and banville it would go
No fight in him, I guess. Maybe he’s happy with the scraps off the plate and doffing his cap to his masters.
Come the revoultion, Comrade
Raymon
National has been pretty bad to Maori over the decades, and they voted against the 2004 Act because it didnt go far enough in excluding Maori ownership of seabed and foreshore.
Act, with fewer elected MPs than MP have achieved far more of their policies than the MP. I have no idea if that would be better under Labour or not. I’m not yet sure how Maori are going to be better off under National/Act. Turia will come under pressure sooner or later imo, but I dontknow if she can let go her grudge against Clark. Women tend to hold these things for decades.
I think they are rating ACT too high. If Rodney Hide wins Epsom, I don’t think he will bring in another three MPs.
Why do you persist with the fiction that the Maori Party will go with labour at the next election? While Tariana Turia is still leading the party, she will never go with labour. After she leaves, you can’t be sure they will go back to labour either, but you can guarantee that they will not while she is there. Remember, the despises labour. Whay do you think she started her own party? Hint, labour’s foreshore and seabed bill.
So, you are left with a labour at low 30ish, greens maybe 5-7, I hope you haven’t bet the house on NZ First and a rampant Jim’s Regressives?
Sean
I confess I dont know how to work the maths out around an electroate + percentage of vote.
Oh poor viper – coming to the realisation that National will retain the treasury benches for at least the 2011 election and probably 2014. he wil be horrified that Labour needs a massive cleanout before the Ghost of Clark wil be laid to rest and the public will once again allow Labour the reins of power. But he is trying to rewrite history. Muldoon maintained power for the full three terms (unfortunately.) Holyoake Holyoake was National Party Prime Minister from 20 1957 to 12 December 1957, then again from 12 December 1960 to 7 February 1972.. Not a bad stint at the hlm. Bolger was elected three times ofcourse, but Shipley took over with from memory about 18 months before the election. On current polling I think you should be more worried about labour leaders tenure in the job than John Key who looks pretty secure from whre I sit. Sahll we do a comparison with Labour PMs and how long they last?
I also think you must mis-quote or mis-interpret me if you think I am not doing very well under this government. True I made a bundle of money under Labour. That was because of Labour’s poor policies that drove house prices through he roof. But although I was made redundant in Sept 2009 i have not been even 5 minutes out of work and at this moment am in a financially stronger position than I ever have been. Tax cuts of course help a little, but nothing like good financial management – something Labour supporters often seem to lack.
I’m going mostly with my gut Tracey. ACT got 3.6% of the vote in 2008, plus Epsom that equalled Rodney with four others. But the ACT party 2010 Mana candidate got 0.6% of the vote, which was a drop from the 2008 result in that electorate of 1.8% from the candidate vote and around 2.4% party vote. Bearing in mind, that 1.8% these are people who voted in 2008 knowing their candidate would not win, same as those voting in 2010. They voted that way because that’s what they felt right doing.
Based on that it is just my feeling that over half of the ACT party’s supporters are feeling alienated by Rodney attempt to rort his World tour, the Auckland Super City, David Garrett’s revelation, Heather Roy’s workplace difficulties and the sidelining in the house of Roger Douglas (An ACT party supporter may see that as a bad thing. Me, I’m good with that).
Bearing in mind, since Garrett was forced to resign, ACT support has sat between 0.5%-1.5% in the Roy Morgan poll, I think some supporters were strongly turned off the party at that point.
That’s how I came to my conclusion.
Heres my predicts for the 2011 Election in a 122 seat parliment. Grant Robertson and David Shearer will move well up on the Labour list. Cunliffe (not my first choice)will be the next leader for Labour, the question is will it be pre or post election?
The Coalition:
National 61 (+3)
Act 4 (-1)
Opposition:
Labour 42 (-1)
Maori 6 (+1)
Green 9 (NC)
Monty’s suddenly come back with a financial roar!
Good on ya mate, since 50% of all NZ income earners make less than $27,200 and you only need to be making $70,000 p.a. to scrape into the top 10%.
What a poorly paid country we are, and with a NAT government dedicated to suppressing wages further.
Don’t cry for me Monty, there will be no need
Nope! Just read what you posted. You wrote that you have to, despite tax cuts, buy cheaper produce and cut back expenditure.
I can fish the quote out (though it would be a mission), but you know you wrote it and the membership here know you wrote it.
Deny it all you lie, but that’s the deal.
Again, not what you’ve written before. One post must be a lie. Which is it you’d like us to believe true?
Buy inferior groceries for your kids and steal/bludge coffee off your employer is not good financial management
You are better off under Labour, but due to an ideological ignorance, continue to advocate for a government that has deserted you and hit you hard in your pocket.
I dismiss you on that alone.
Monty, did the spin machine give you functions other than blogging for them?
Viper – I’m not allowed to mention that occasion three days away where people will be enjoying stuff, but I hope you, um, yeah!
!
@Tories – G
FF 2 
11 !!!!!
Labour’s gonna kick some butt!
I think in his effort to score some cheap hits at the poor’s expense, telling them not to complain about the rising prices, and how to make sacrifices at the supermarket in the face of diminishing wage packets and highjer gst driven prices, Monty actually let a few truths slip out.
Buy cheap, less nutritious bread and food for the family. Drink loads of the bosses coffee at work so you don’t have to buy your own… I remember it well.
I don’t care if the guy is well off or not, but to make out the tories are helping New Zealanders when he’s clearly stated his own situation as otherwise, it’s a bit of a joke, really.
Maybe he puts the con into conservatism.
He should join us. We put the our in Labour.
mmm – a bit of concern for Lab if Maori Party holds all the cards – given how often they have sold out Maoridom in order to meet their other agendas, its a big concern. A well known person in Maoridom once told me that Maori were better off under a conservative right sided govt – and I can see why this person – along with many other influential Maori – believe that. Apparently a more conservative govt is more open to negotiation – and given the shambles that is the foreshore and how the Maori party came to be – its highly unlikely they will jump into bed with Lab. I personally think those who need it in Maoridom are far better off with Lab – but in saying that, there is still things to learn from how the first mess occurred.
I can’t stand the mess the tories are making of our country – I find it frustrating and it guts me that we have a mass of public living under the assumption that its all good – when the reality is much different. I think Lab can do it, but it must be carefully orchestrated and it all begins by peeling the layers of lies off and exposing the reality. Without the media doing what is essentially their job properly and reporting the facts, shes a way to go yet. It makes me sick to my stomach to think what further messes will be left to be picked up if the tories get another 1 or godforbid, more, terms. Wont be much of a country left imo, and the appeal of Aussie just keeps getting brighter for many.
And to see the Maori party sell its people out time and again in order to hang onto the fantasy that Key will magically sort the seabed fiasco out is just sickening. Love or loathe him, you cant help but admire the fact Harawera (sp) sticks true to his guns. Let us hope that the wool come off the eyes – and at least seeing Lens campaign sticking it to the tories – well, it gives me hope for 2011.
I wonder which word I used got me thrown into moderation??? The mind boggles…
I bet even Hooton cannot answer that question paul.
I predict a Labour win with a minority government! 
I love the way you keep throwing iPredict out there, Mallard, but never link to the scientific polls done that put you twenty points behind with less than twelve months until the election.
Most people don’t use ipredict so it’s hardly something to be taken as gospel now is it!
That’s interesting Don, my business has just taken on two graduates from Auckland’s polytechnics, they have great work ethic, great grasp of new concepts and are productive youn gpeople.
That doesn’t change the fact that I, most of my friends and colleagues are completely flustered with the complete change in the attitudes of young people and the lack of work ethic since NCEA came in.
Not to mention, you’re hiring people out of tertiary institutions, thankfully those who haven’t been poisoned by the PC nonsense of NCEA are able to realign themselves with the real world by the time they’ve graduated. Hire someone out of high school, even for the most menial jobs (as I do), they’re lazy, undereducated and I just want them to do their job.
Reminder Don the decision to introduce the NCEA was made by one National Minister of Education and confirmed, resourced and details sorted by another. Trevor
Not to mention that thanks to the abolition of the youth wage (thanks for the massive spike in youth umeployment since, Labour) I have to pay a 16 year old with no experience the same as a 30 year old, which makes it even less likely I’ll take a chance on a young kid – which is something I really like to do, and it has given me one of my most loyal and talented employees, but he’s the only one.
But thanks to the 90 day law, Labour’s dumbing down of our young people doesn’t affect my business so much because I am now FREE to fire people who prove themselves quickly unable to do a job without employment court or union nonsense.
And here’s Don. Another warrior princess, here to fight the nasty Labour people. Lol
Where do they make them?
And why do they still keep coming here?
Meh, Hooton is just attempting to brand himself, bit like Bernard Hickey saying house prices would drop 30%. Risk though is when it doesnt happen and you look like an idiot. Aye Matt.
GN Not my job but you are showing your ignorance. All Hooton is doing is report the way other people are putting their money on election and other results. I think it is interesting and lots of others do too. You don’t have to read these or any other threads. But have a look at iPredict – you might find it fascinating.
I will be betting my bottom dollar on the Tories getting the chop this year and Key will go wimpering back to his mansion with his tail between his legs to cuddle some of his money.
I think there are things that the general public is forgetting
1. You can never NEVER count Winston out, the guy has some serious Mojo, even people who hate him find themselves forgiving him for things, closer to election he’ll go into stunt mode and have a following in no time, at least enough to get into parliament
2. Rodney and the ACT Party are dead and buried, Douglas is the embodiment of everything the party stands for, all the evil mean-spirited extreme-right rubbish. Rodney might lead the party but I would be pretty confident in saying the votes outside of Epsom are party votes for the Douglas Party. Rodney won’t win Epsom, he’s mucked that up good and proper, and Douglas won’t stand in the next election so goodbye ACT, good riddance.
3. The people who actually bother to vote in polls etc are generally not working class everyday kiwis, certain Labour votes in that area of the population, don’t underestimate the Labour comeback from that area and the small business owners who aren’t loving John Key’s dirty little employment law changes, obviously some of them do and big business types will always vote for the Nats, but I don’t think small business owners are as infatuated anymore.
Basically I predict a Labour-Green-Maori-NZ First(Just because I can’t see Winston and Key making any agreements, Winston asks to much and Key is an arrogant petulant child) coalition.
The only question after that is what will Labour do with their term? Repeal Nationals anti-worker laws? Lift the Minimum Wage to a dignified level?($15 if Fenton’s campaigning for it wasn’t just a stunt) put some proper employment protection provisions into the ERA?
Who knows, but I am ever hopeful.