Hooton this week. I reckon the reason a by-election is thought to be less likely in Botany is because the informed money has the resignation being delayed until February to enable an August general election. I also think there is money to be made selling Key and buying Goff.
This week’s snapshot of New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict Ltd, indicates that by-elections are likely in Manurewa and Botany next year, before a cliff-hanger General Election in Q4 2011 which will see the Maori Party hold the balance of power and choose to give John Key a second term as prime minister. Except under one scenario, detailed below, the post-election balance in Parliament does not change under different assumptions about the results of electorate races in Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti.
The market continues to forecast that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011 (78% probability, up from 77% last week), with a 21% probability of an early election in Q3 2011 (up from 19% last week).
Forecast party vote shares are: National 45.0% (up from 43.8% last week), Labour 36.6% (up from 35.4% last week), Greens 8.3% (steady), New Zealand First 4.5% (up from 4.1% last week), Maori Party 3.1% (steady), Act 2.4% (up from 2.3% last week) and United Future 0.3% (down from 0.4% last week).
Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 55% probability of retaining Epsom for his party, up from 52% last week.
For the first time, the market is indicating that Labour will retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti so that the Maori Party will not increase its representation in Parliament from its current five MPs.
United Future Leader Peter Dunne is not forecast to be re-elected in Ohariu. National is favoured with 37% probability, steady compared with last week.
Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.
Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 46 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs and Act 3 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
National and Act would have a combined 60 MPs and Labour and the Greens a combined 56 MPs. The Maori Party would therefore be able to choose whether to support a National-led or Labour-led government, with a decision to abstain on confidence and supply being a tacit decision to allow National and Act to govern.
The market is forecasting a 79% probability that there will be a National prime minister after the next election (up from 78% last week), indicating the market believes the Maori Party would decide to support a National-led government.
Because of the importance and closeness of the electorate races in Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti, iPredict has again analysed what parliamentary balance would exist based on all possible combinations of outcomes in these electorates.
Stocks launched yesterday about the likelihood of by-elections before the General Election in Manurewa and Botany indicate both are expected, with a 72% probability of the former and a 60% probability of the latter. However, the market does not expect Botany MP Pansy Wong to resign from Parliament until next year, with a 64% probability she will still be the MP on 31 December 2010.
The market does not believe there will be a by-election in Te Atatu, indicating it believes Independent MP Chris Carter will not resign from Parliament before the General Election.
The market indicates an 81% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day.
Mr. Infinity, with a post grad degree and 25 years of experience I cannot get a better job! Unless of course I wish to disregard my professional knowledge and expertise and get a Jim’s mowing round and fiddle the taxes like most others.
I honestly worry about you and your ‘dump the looney greens’, etc. MMP provides true democracy; if NZ wants to do something creative to make policy decision more tenable they need to look at a 5 year parliamentary term.
BTW – am a product of public sector housing, I believe John Key was too; not all people have the same privileges.
I just had a thought; maybe I could get a new job on one of John Key’s inspiring initiatives – maybe building the cycle way or a bar person at Party Central?
Why of course Mr Infinity!
We should go the way of the United States with their Republican and Democratic parties. Look how well the US has been doing lately switching between the two.
Over the last few years US citizens have been really happy with their president and with congress. Even as real wages have frozen since the late 1970′s while the top 1% of Americans now own more than the bottom 95% put together!
Thanks for the insight mate, that’s the way a sane country should do it.
“Yes, a principled party with a economic plan grounded in economic thought. Crazy.”
LOL
“Deleted. Personal abuse. Clare
You are on a warning for trolling.”
LOL LOL
Apparently the rule is no making fun of Robyn Malcolm.
Also, where is Labour’s economic thought? I can’t think of many economists in the world who think high taxes, government handouts, and large debt are good economic policy (All of Obama’s economic advisors, I suppose). Where are Labour’s principles? Defending TFF when he was sure to go to jail for corruption? Failing to condemn him since? I remind you the only NZ MP to go to jail for corruption was a member of the “caring and sharing” Labour party.
That wasn’t making fun of Mr I, it was abuse. Clare
Talking about bludgers, THIS will REALLY infuriate MRI
$700m – The NBR’s Richlist estimate of the Spencer family fortune.
$178m – The amount taxpayers could have to pay to cover losses of their lending business.
It does. Corporately welfare is probably worse than race based funding or carbon trading. They have their own money to make up for their mistakes, I’m not paying for it.
Let it fail and build something better. Without government funding of course…
Tracey, it won’t get through his rose coloured spectacles.
I agree they’re coloured, but I wasnt thinking of “pink”
Spud how about telling us what other parties Goff has mentioned that he could work with. If the Maori Party isn’t one of them, then he has no intention of ever being Prime Minister.
This would probably suit him as he will never have to face the hard questions.
I see the herald has printed a tiny retraction/apology over reference to John Spencer rather than Peter Spencer, I too withdraw my post above based on their update.
jenny2
Are you saying that Goff/Labour wont brook a discussion with the MP? I am surprised because I ahve long had the impression it’s TT who wont brook a discussion with Labour?
I thought that was the case, Tracey, Goff is a good man
Spud. You still have answered the question.
Oops pardon me for a silly typo.
The above comment should read:
Spud. You still have NOT answered the question.
Infinity said:
You have got to be kidding me, those ‘economists’ you refer to and kowtow to are no better than huckster fortune tellers. Their theories are good for entertainment only.
These economists and their rubbish theories and numbers led the world directly to the GFC and created the case for the huge corporate welfare bailouts you *SAY* you do not back.
In other words, saying that Labour’s policies do not match what most economists think is a FRAKIN COMPLIMENT. Thank you.
What an alternative Left Budget looks like.
From the USA:
Alternative Left Budget – Gives a Warning to John Key, “Austerity Will Crush The Economy“
http://act.commondreams.org/go/3369?akid=293.151628.qdC8Ba&t=3