This morning Australian’s have awoken to the very real possibility of a hung parliament. While there are still several seats that are too close to call, it looks highly likely that neither Gillard’s Labor nor Abbott’s Coalition will make it to the magical 76 required to form a majority government. To us over the ditch, this is nothing unusual. We haven’t had a majority government since about 1994, and the last leader to govern with a comfortable majority was Jim Bolger from 1990-1993.
Once the final count has been completed the most likely outcome for Australia looks to be a minority government supported by independents. But the real question is who gets to lead that government, does the incumbent get the first chance to have a go, should it be the party with the most seats, should Labor’s loss of majority give Abbott the first chance?
It will be interesting to see how the Australian public react to whatever government emerges from these results. If the government ends up being led by the smaller of the two major parties (even if there is only a seat in it) the voting public may well react against them. There will be lessons for us over here in New Zealand. So far under MMP all of our governments have been led by the largest party in Parliament, but that’s not guaranteed.
In 1996 we could have ended up with a Labour/NZ First/Alliance government, even though National was the bigger of the two major parties. In 2002, despite their disastrous result, another percent or two and National could have led a centre-right coalition despite Labour being the much bigger party. Under MMP we could well end up with the biggest party in Parliament leading the opposition, not the government. What happens in Australia over coming weeks could provide a few clues as to how the public would view that.
Yes It was interesting that the Australian Labour vote mostly went to the Greens. Julia Gillard is on the right of the party much like the NZ labour party leader. I wonder if the same thing will happen here? I can but hope. That is of course the beauty of MMP the 20 or so percent on the right and the left don’t have to vote for that crowded centre
Sad that the OZ Greens got over 11% and only 1 seat though,
Another reason why we must fight hard to retain MMP
Goff is not right wing!
Scary that Australia is in limbo 
Whats scary about being in limbo for 2 weeks?
Labor didnt have a majority in the Senate before either.
AS Britain has shown before and now Australia, the idea of one party gets its all seems to be out of fashion. I wonder if Nationals hopes of forming a majority without a minor party will also be dashed
NZ went the way of the dark side, the Britain
and I don’t want Australia to turn into tory land too 
I wonder if some Australians, even some of the politicians, will be thinking “Ahhh help! What do we do? Let’s call the New Zealanders, they have experience at this sort of thing!”
Ghost – I remember back in 2002 when Labour had hopes of forming majority government, of course it didn’t happen. I think Kiwi voters quite like the idea that no one party gets the monopoly on power any more. I’ll be voting to retain MMP and I suspect the majority of Kiwis will do the same.
I like MMP, but I think it should encourage more bipartisan negotiation between the large parties too. I.e, Labour got more votes than the Greens, ACT or Maori, why don’t they have more input at present? (I can’t quite believe I wrote that, as a minor party suppporter, but I’m trying to see things from a general perspective). Of course, when National are in opposition, the same thing would apply. Opposition could be more than just, well, opposing. On the other hand, maybe nothing would get done.
MMP is only controversial because Winston First campaigned against the National Government in 1996 then went into coalition with them. Had he gone with Labour (as his campaigning indicated) then the tail wagging the dog theory would not exist.
Witness the Labour-Alliance, Labour-Progressive (with United Support) governments working, as is the National-Maori-Act government remaining reasonably stable, despite the occassional wobbles.
Spud, if you want a one party state there are other countries around the world that will quite happily take you, North Korea for example. Do you really want me to list again what NuLabour in the UK did to the country? If you want a dark side, look no further than Gordon Brown.
…and before you make some bleating comment, Spud, about the cuts the coalition are making, latest figures put the total national debt in the UK at 4.8 trillion pounds.
But I’m gunna say it anyway
I can’t go to North Korea because of certain things that they eat that I won’t mention
Yes Gordy wasn’t the greatest, but these guys are worse
I’m sure they could work on the debt without kicking the masses
Now seriously, are you climategate Simon?
Yee haa!
Come on Labor! 
!
http://msn.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10668097&ref=rss
http://www.thestar.com/sports/soccer/article/842235–north-korea-soccer-coach-fears-for-his-life
Another reason you wouldn’t want to live in North Korea. Makes the Nats look pretty tame when it comes to employer-worker relations
It’ll be interesting to see how Aussie pans out though – but what is it with 2010 elections and hung Parliaments???
You’ve already been brainwashed Spud. Time to expand your horizons and come out of your trance.
I’m guessing you are climate gate Simon
Hey every good spud should be washed
Big defeat for Labor over there, even if they manage to form a government…
Yes Labor got a caning. Probably a reasonable argument to be made that Gillard didn’t improve Labor’s results one whit above what Rudd could have done himself.
but notice what happened to the Greens
Apparently this result is almost exactly how they were polling with Rudd when he was deposed, not sure if they stopped the slide or cemented it…
MMP thinking means getting beyond the old two party state. I think it’d be awful if either Labour or National won an all out majority.
Under FPP I might have been forced to vote Labour. Heaven forbid post-1984. They haven’t shifted Left enough post-Lange/Douglas in my view, and are currently not too far apart from the Canadian Liberals or British New Labour which is a worry. Thankfully voters under MMP have greater choice to vote for the parties that better reflect their thinking. For democratic socialist lefties like me, it’s meant being able to vote for parties like the Alliance, Greens, Progressive, etc
In my view, an ideal centre-left coalition in NZ might include a third way social democratic labour party, a green party, possibly the Maori Party, and possibly in the future another more leftist democratic socialist party.
If that meant a grand left coalition of multiple parties with a majority, and a large tory party on the right with the largest number of seats (but no majority) leading the opposition, then tough. The majority of voters actually would have voted across the Left spectrum.
I think much of the Maori Party’s policies are more inline with left/communitarian thinking rather than neo-liberalism and tory policies. Labour really must work on building bridges with the Maori Party.
Some good observations Kane.
“and a large tory party on the right with the largest number of seats (but no majority) leading the opposition, then tough. The majority of voters actually would have voted across the Left spectrum.”
It’s interesting that people are very strongly of the opinion that which ever party got the most votes should have first dibs on forming the government, no matter what the left/right split is…
I wonder if the hung parliaments are a sign of people not wanting a particular group rather than a resounding endorsement of the other guys?
I think people in our countries have been saying what they dont want rather than what they do.
That gave me an idea!
On the ballot paper we vote for who we do want. And then further down we get to vote for who we don’t want 
The first half is binding and chooses the government and the second half can be broadcast as well. One vote you don’t want to be winning on the night! 
Mr abbot says Labour has lost its legitimacy, but with potentially the same number of seats as them, he can hardly claim he has been given legitimacy.
We don’t want Mr Sexist in