Some interesting projections were released by Statistics New Zealand yesterday:
In 2026:
The European or Other population will grow from 3.21 million (2006 estimate) to 3.47 million an increase of 0.4 percent.
The Maori population will grow from 620,000 (2006 estimate) to 810,000 an increase of 1.3 percent a year
The Asian population will grow from 400,000 (2006 estimate) to 790,000 an increase of 3.4 percent a year
The Pacific population will grow from 300,000 (2006 estimate) to 480,000 an increase of 2.4 percent a year
The dramatic rise in these populations is attributed to births (Maori and Pacific) and migration (Asian).
What does this mean for New Zealand? I’m interested to here some feedback on the country’s changing demographic.
Click here to view the report from Statistics New Zealand:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1004/S00239.htm
Curiously awkward to find, but it looks like total population in 2026 will sit around 5 million people.
Depending on the projection series you use, European ethnicity will therefore make up around 60-70% of the population in 2026. No doubt less, the further north you go, and more the further south – same as today.
It means that we’ll have to introduce enforced birth control and put a halt on all immigration sooner rather than later. Peak Oil and farming degradation due to AGW, overuse and the lack of fuel to farm means that we won’t be able to feed any more. If we don’t take action then we’ll be headed for a Malthusian Correction.
@ Draco, if the population of NZ was going to go over 20,000,000 in that time frame, sure I’d be with you.
But our population density is such that we’ll still be able to swing several long tailed cats and not hit any one (apologies to the cat lovers out there!).
Not like India which adds a net population of 4 New Zealands to itself every year (16 million people).
Nevertheless a global Malthusian Correction can’t be ruled out.
Post updated with ‘European or Other’ stats FYI
It has implications for Maoris who might feel that they’ll be subsumed by a population that neither knows nor cares about the Treaty of Waitangi. It will become difficult to have any credibility or voice when arguing for special status, as they become a smaller minority. But 5m seems a paltry figure.
UK (61m)and Japan (127m), each with similar land areas to NZ can cope so there’s no problem with NZ growing to even 30-40m. As long as they didn’t all arrive within a decade it would be an exciting prospect.
See Rebecca? Changing demographics, could also be some AZTEC descendants unexpectedly be added to the mix!
Highly unlikely the pacific population will grow at the 2.4% rate. Are modern pacific women going to be exactly like their mothers and have large families? I think not.
The European growth of 0.4% seems too low unless there is a exodus via emigration.
Statistics NZ has put out dodgy numbers before. Wasnt too long ago there was going to be a decline in overall population due to the lower birthrate.
They are a bit like Metservice, cant tell us anything about the future
@ John: certainly a lot of new Asian immigrants with shallow roots in their own culture won’t appreciate the depths of Maori culture. Having said that, a number of South East Asiand and Far East Asian cultures have both language and social similarities to Maori.
@ghost: Stats NZ has the luxury of adjusting their forecasts as time goes on. You’ll see, by the time 2026 arrives, they will have the numbers spot on!!!
@ Loota: Why 20m?
Personally, without the benefits of oil, I think we already at the population level that we can reasonably expect to maintain sustainably. It not so much a question of hard work – farming without oil products still produces enough to sustain surplus labour – but a question of being able to transport the food to where it’s needed and to maintain the irrigation. Most of Canterbury without irrigation can’t be farmed.
@ John:
The UK and Japan maintain such large populations by importing food. That amount of importation will decline with the reduction in oil production. IIRC, the UK topped out at about 6m before becoming a permanent food importer.
@ Draco – just an arbitrary figure to indicate “lots more population than what we will probably see in NZ in the next 100 years”. Sorry for being unclear.
NZ needs enough people for a decent economy of scale and vibrancy of life, but not so many people that we turn into a walking sardine tin. My brother lived in London for a couple of years, and while it’s vibrant to the core, walking around the place was a bit like being in the video for “Bittersweet Symphony”.
We will have more refugees due to climate change unfortunately. But I’d like to think there will also be more people who respect eachothers differences. Mainly because of the younger generations who’ve grown up with diversity.
The question is will the people of NZ start to live sustainably, to build an economy that is not dependent on external goods and services? If/when water and oil become the gold commodities of our time NZ is ideally placed to take care of our own – we can support ourselves with food, sustainable electricity (may need more solar from where we are at now), what else needs to be done.
Ethnic background is not a worry as long as shared values of pride in self, pride in NZ and desire to keep NZ clean, green, happy, healthy and sustainable for our mokopuna.
Which really isn’t useful as we need to ask: How many can we support sustainably?
@ Emma Goodall: Exactly
I can see possible Positives and Negatives from this Raymond,it will be a good thing to have a more multicultural society but we have to bear in mind that this could led to as some people have said,a lack of commmitment to the Treaty of Waitangi and our Traditional Kiwi values and culture.
Possibly Spud
Traditional kiwi values and culture – interestingly I know older New Zealanders who think that “young people” today don’t hold the same aspirational values and commitment to hard work which made NZ great and helped get Sir Ed to the top of Mt Everest.
@ A Mother –
ooo
Population density world wide is the major problem.
On top of that stripping of energy and other resources is not sustainable.
The result will be sea level rise which will wipe out towns such as Greymouth where the Mayor advocated the mining of coal which will be a big contributor to the sea level rise. No future responsibility just political hype for personal ends of the short term.
Ignorant leaders are everywhere giving many people what they want to hear.
Issues with food are already a global problem with many countries not being able to feed themselves.
Transportation of food and goods will grow more expensive and out of the reach of an increasing part of our population.
The people who say NZ needs more people parrot what the growth economist chant.
Growth is our downfall. Economies that rely on growth will flounder.
Possible growth has a ceiling.
As population grows in NZ we loose many of the benefits of being in NZ. To import people so an economic model can function is as crazy as a cart driving the horse.
Our economy must re-gear. Multinationals are our downfall. The power they wield controls so much of NZ and our government. Who asked NZders how many people would be desirable here.
We import food from China and elswhere rather than produce it here. Much of the tinned food in supermarkets is imported. Our food production infrastructure is being altered so we become more vulnerable in an increasingly shakey economic climate.
Too much surplus money is accumulated in the hand of small and shrinking group.
The average NZder is becoming relatively poorer.
The model of production, supply and distribution of a range of things is not making the average person better off.
Our independence as a nation island must be a priority as fuel and travel become highly problematic.
Independence in food supply is basic and vital.
Cow tailing to importers for sake of their wealth is nuts. Banks are not sacred either in spite of their power to influence.
It would take a brave and resolute country to back any political party wishing to take on the bigger issues.
Labour was there once when John A Lee influenced the Savage Labour govt in the 30s.
NZ Govt turned the handle of the reserve banks money machine and printed money to finance the building of state houses.
That gave work to the unemployed and as rents from those houses came in the money was recouped and retired. A simple explanation but that helped get NZ out of the great depression and housed people.
Now no govt would dare or the international bwankers would close them down.
Guess where Jkeyll worked last.
Where is the plan to cope with the increased population? Where will we get the power (nuclear?) for example…When I was at university in the 1950s we were told that New Zealand could support a population of only 2.5million..Now we are apparently heading for 5 million..How will we cope?
@ John – it seems like your university courses have been wrong for a few years then. Ever since NZ broke 3 million population decades ago.
The other thing is, we are already 85% of the way to the 5 million mark, the last 15% of the way should be quite manageable, no?
When you consider most of that growth will be in Auckland, I am glad to have a small piece of land in Marlborough to retire to.