There is not a lot of variety in the New Zealand media, given our size and the domination of a couple of key players. But today we have an interesting divide between the NZ Herald and the Dom Post on just what is on the agenda for discussions between Hilary Clinton and Murray McCully. Bear with me here, but it all started with the Herald’s in-depth coverage of the Clinton visit on Saturday, which included the cringe-making headline in the print edition ” They like us again”. That story tells us that military exercises between NZ and US are all set to resume and all will be revealed very soon.
The Weekend Herald understands it is likely to be announced next week when Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, Kurt Campbell, visit New Zealand.
Now these sorts of stories do not come out of thin air and Audrey Young, the author of the article, is a highly respected journalist. The rest of the articles in the Weekend Herald extensively quote Murray McCully, so one could be forgiven for assuming him, or to quote one of my favourite journalistic euphemisms ” someone close to the Minister’s thinking” was the source.
Clare Trevett follows the story up today with an account of Mrs Clinton’s programme and informs us
High on the agenda is understood to be the United States’ review of the security relationship with New Zealand and plans to drop the US ban on military exercises with New Zealand.
However in the Dom Post today, Martin Kay has a story headlined ‘Defence ties with NZ ‘not in Clinton’s portfolio’. It tells us
Sources close to this week’s visit by American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have scotched speculation that she will announce an end to the ban on United States-New Zealand military exercises.
The article goes on to say that actually the question of military exercises is not even in the Secretary of State’s portfolio, and that a US review of our defence relationship had not yet been completed and quoted the US Embassy as saying
“The review is ongoing and no conclusions have yet been drawn.”
Hmmm, a curious case. I can imagine the Dom Post’s editors asked its reporters how they could miss a pretty damn big story, and they went and checked with the US Embassy and discovered it was just not happening.
Now this is all quite amusing, but it does raise a couple of serious questions. First, how on earth do we get two so contradictory stories? My experience always tells me to back cock-up over conspiracy. But you do have to wonder how it is that the NZ Herald could have gained the impression that there was to be a major announcement if it was not from someone in the NZ Government? Was there an attempt to get it on the agenda by raising it through the media? or just someone getting way ahead of themeselves? If it is either of these then it is bad politics and poor diplomacy from the National Government.
The other thing I do know from my MFAT experience is that the US will be less than impressed that the idea that there would be an announcement on military exercises has been made public if it is not going to happen on this visit. These visits are carefully managed and likely outcomes discussed well in advance. The rivalries in the US system are also a factor, and the notion that the State Department might be stepping on the toes of Defence will go down very badly.
Anyway, it will be most interesting to see what does get discussed/announced, and which of our daily journals of record is right about this.
That is scary
you’ve got to back the dom post on this.
I’m not sure what to make of this. It seems like “an announcement on military exercises” is going to be that there is no change, that the issue is being studied. That too is an announcement.
I love it when someone says they will study it. It is like when you ask mom or dad to go to the movies and the answer is “I’ll think about it.” Later, you ask if they have thought about it and the answer is, “not yet–still thinking about it.”
Also not sure what to think of the idea of State stepping on Defense’ toes. The worst that could possibly happen is that Obama would settle the difference with a sharp word, because these are both cabinet officials serving at his pleasure. It was my impression that Defense gets involved with things once State is done doing so. Training exercises with NZ are more a diplomatic matter to increase friendly relations, hopefully to lead to something bigger, like a free trade treaty or another important treaty.
If US senators see NZ’s government as thumbing its nose and constantly criticising them, it is harder to get 2/3 of them to agree to a treaty. It takes 2/3 of the US senators to vote yes under the Constitution to ratify a treaty. It’s easy to forget that in a system where the tiniest majority can get anything done.
If the treaty turns into a political matter, forget it. It is very easy for either party to put together a 34-vote roadblock. Democrats can use their 60-vote majority to break filibusters of legislation, but to pass a treaty they need all of their own, plus 7 Republican senators.
Article II, s2
http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articleii
The Herald has been McCullys parrot for many years. Thats the way he too survives the Nationals leadership upheavals as well.
Me thinks that the herald/parrot will be right on this one.
Just because the Herald gets it’s information from McCully, doesn’t mean McCully is right.
I think the Dom Post will be vindicated on this one.
We shall see. After McCully is the Foreign Minister, and the parrot will be very sad if its been spouting nonsense ( not that ‘they’ ever feel accountable for what they say)
But look at this from the Us State Department web site.
The Bureau of Political-Military Affairs (PM), headed by Assistant Secretary Andrew J. Shapiro, is the Department of State’s principal link to the Department of Defense. The PM Bureau provides policy direction in the areas of international security, security assistance, military operations, defense strategy and plans, and defense trade.
Sounds like an area that Hilary could announce a decision on.
Now that the Princes of Darkness like Cheney, Bolton and co have gone policy changing is easy.
I know. You could never tell when Cheney was going to shoot one of his supporters in the face with bird shot. That just kept everyone on edge.
i just sent a prayer to any god if there is any out there that hillary does not let us do military training with them
they kicked us out of ANZUS lets keep it that way please
Maybe the advantage of that training is that it makes Kiwis and Americans shoot at each other less when they are at war together.
Dylan’s comment makes me ask whether NZ is an isolationist country or not (pardon the pun on the Italian). Is the USA an ally or not? Which country does NZ want to be closer to, China or the USA? Which country is a bigger trading partner? Which country is chasing the cash more? China is more capitalist than the US is, and a bigger greenhouse gas polluter. Does NZ just want the free trade agreement with China, or does it desire one with the US too?
Every time an opportunity to collaborate falls through, it makes it that much less likely that 67 US senators will agree to a treaty.
Well it’s not just about the economics is it.
I am just one man but the reason why I don’t want NZ to have anything to do with america is the cult of individualism that comes out of it and that I have had to gone through high school watching everyone around me try their hardest to fit the image of the american they see on t.v and it revolts me.
But I’m sorry this is a bit off topic. The blog is about two newspapers coming out with two different conclusions out of the same story. Very strange… and yes one would hope it is because of a cock up rather than some sort of conspiracy.
It gives you alot to think about though… for me this is just a reminder than journalism isn’t neutral
@ Andrew Straw: Not dealing with the US doesn’t mean that we’re isolationists. You may not have noticed but there’s about 200 countries in the world.
You’re quite right, we will see Ghost.
Maybe it is just a bunch of hot air. At the end of the Clinton meeting, when things haven’t substantially changed, Key and McCully will simply assure the public great steps have been taken behind the scenes. Steps that will come to fruition at the appropriate juncture, in the fullness of time…
That way they get to seem like statemen without directly achieving anything but photo opportunities.
200 countries to court, is it? Perhaps it is time to send a delegation to San Marino to make sure you are making a difference in the world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino
I didn’t know that NZ “doesn’t deal with the US.” I guess the SAS are in Afghanistan sua sponte. Maybe NZ can show its support for its free trade partner, China, and send some SAS to oppress the Uygurs as an act of goodwill.
I guess I should let my senators back home (Evan Bayh and Dick Lugar) know that NZ doesn’t want to “deal with us,” and that some so dislike TV images of us that they are “revolted.” They can take that into consideration in free trade trade treaty deliberations.
Perhaps NZ needs to seek such a treaty with the other 200+ nations instead of engaging with a government and a people so reviled.
You know, it is so bizarre to me that Americans are hated that much here. In my 33 years of living in the United States, I never ran into *anyone* who hated Kiwis like that. About the worst insult you’d get is, “where’s that?”
Andrew I am just one man? Don’t take my opinion on americans as New Zealand’s opinion