A story has come through this morning that there is a revolt among the Maori Party ruling council against the Maori Party MPs support for National’s ETS.
According to the report the Council will meet this afternoon. The concerns being raised by members are the ones that many Maori and others have been expressing
Even though there is a signed deal on the table between the Maori Party and National, the third and final vote is yet to be taken,” a senior party source said.
“The Maori Party membership are becoming increasingly aware of the huge debt that our people are going to have to pay, despite all the window dressing going on by the leadership about deals struck with Iwi and the $4 per week being saved with cheaper petrol and electricity prices for two years.
“That figure fails in comparison with a 40 year debt of anything between $110 and $220 billion
This is the big issue here. There is great concern that the deal done with the Iwi Leadership Group will in fact see the increased costs transferred from heavy emitters to ordinary Maori families. This is causing serious concern among the Maori Party.
“Many Maori Party supporters are threatening to leave the party, as the real issues behind this legislation are becoming known by the wider public.
“Our people are gutted that their opinion has not even been sought by the caucus, let alone listened to.
“This legislation could spell the end of the Party – the caucus have two days to regain the support of members
It does not get much more serious than that.
Wow very interesting indeed!
Whats the concession that Peter Dunne has extracted?
It seems the only ones falling for this rubbish are National themselves and the Maori elite who could benefit from Nick Smiths golden handshake.
Hopefully the story is correct. Not only will it stop this truly scary legislation going through but it will show a signal that the Maori party is moving towards normal Maori’s interests.
I think that the ETS should be ditched altogether. It is a feel good proposed piece of legislation. We here in NZ just wanted to look good (or appear as a darling) to the world, even though that every dog, cat, cockroach on the planet, knows that this ETS thingy is not going to help the climate system warming at all, which hasn’t been scientifically proven yet.
All eyes on PTV today and what happens with the maori party…. This is turning into a fiasco for National…
Hopefully the Maori party follows the line of the revolt within the ruling council and votes against this terrible piece of legislation.
Russel Norman has posted on Frogblog that “Hekia Parata from National has been given the job of sitting next to Te Ururoa Flavell in the House to make sure the Maori Party do what they promised in their dirty deal. Now he’s been taken outside to be leaned on in private.”
GWW – Dunne gets to use his special CFC emitting hairspray (he has a container load of cans from the 1970s stockpiled) for the term of his hair’s natural life.
It’s been proven beyond reasonable doubt.
Ghost, I think it’s that gets to keep the salary and the cars and the other baubles when they don’t actually need his vote?
What a farce.
National are now desperately hoping to get the bill passed today, not have to wait until tomorrow. Because if they even had to wait one more day, their flimsy majority might disintegrate. It’s looking more fragile by the hour.
And all this, for a hugely important piece of legislation that will affect generations to come.
One question (for Red Alert’s visitors from the press gallery!): If this utter shambles was happening under Helen Clark and Michael Cullen, what would you be saying?
Time to tell it like it is, people.
Dr T. Bastard,
I have implemented numerical models (software-wise) for non-linear climate simulation. This was a small project by some researchers at Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences from Massey which was a collaboration with researchers at another institute in the US. There were 2 of us that were contracted to develop the software. We proto-typed our numerical algorithms in Matlab and developed the app in Java for deployment. The numerical algebraic engine that we used was the freely available JLapack (Java Linear Algebra Package). I am sure that NIWA is using the FORTRAN version (Lapack), and parallelized for their supercomputer in order for high-speed number-crunching.
A few years ago, I was making contact with sacked former NIWA scientist Dr. Salinger, suggesting certain numerical models that they weren’t aware of, which I could be contracted to develop those for them. I listed for (showed) him those models which were published in non-climate science journals, such as various engineering, mathematical, machine intelligence, pattern recognition journals, etc, where those originated from IEEE , SIAM, ACM, and so forth. Our informal exchanges didn’t lead to any contract work at all.
I have a deep understanding of numerical modeling in the climate science domain, even though I am not a climate scientist by training (although I am a physicist by training), but so as the warmist God such as Prof. Gavin Schmidt of NASA who runs the RealClimate website who himself has been implicated in the manipulation/fudging of climate data/reports revealed from the hacked email in recent days. Prof. Schmidt is a mathematician, ie, his PhD was in mathematics. He is not a physicist, but that is unimportant.
The IPCC report is full of statistical analysis. Physics is not statistics. The observations don’t match model predictions. The perfect match that we hear from pro-AGW is only observed in a narrow domain, meaning that it only works here but doesn’t work there. Physical laws are supposed to work here, there, under the sea, over the moon’s surface and everywhere. Current IPCC models are only consistent in certain domain and completely contradicted in other domains. Eg, the temperature dip in the 1940s to 1960s, cannot be explained by the accepted IPCC models, an obvious failure there. But that’s only one example.
Dr T Bastard, how about you try and learn some science before you accept something blindly as facts, huh?
“All eyes on PTV today and what happens with the maori party…. This is turning into a fiasco for National…” – count me in
I’d better buy some popcorn…
@Fisi – You’re making my brain explode
Thinking hurts
It’s just lucky that I’ve all those thousands of scientists who believe in climate change to do my thinking for me
[...] things that were going to rip the Maori Party apart, it looks more and more likely that it’s going to be support for National’s Emissions Trading [...]
That’s right Spud, just lie back and let others tell you what they think is going on without having to think about it yourself. That’s what the alarmists rely on.
Hey I can think, but when it comes to scientific data I’m not going to pretend that I understand all the calculations etc.
It’s pretty simple to me, humans are taking from the earth and putting out nasty substances, this is making the planet sick.
Spud, the main argument over climate change, is the substitution of physical reality for mathematics and real observation becomes a 2nd citizen. It should be the other way round. Observation, first & foremost, then theoretical models should come 2nd.
The danger on over-reliance on mathematics is that sometimes we can’t tell whether its prediction is just pure mathematical construct only, where it has no correspondence to physical reality at all or the mathematical prediction/solution does indeed have a correspondence to physical reality but it is yet to be observed/discovered.
Today, mathematics has taken over as a substitute for physical reality, common sense is, then thrown out the window. There are tons of these examples from physical science. Eg, general relativity predicts that you can somehow travel back & forth in time, I mean the mathematical solution to the relativity equations say exactly that. Lot’s of physicists have been and still are fascinated with this concept and there have been many published research papers on this topic for over 70 years when it was first proposed.
Do you believe this nonsense Spuds? C’mon, commonsense says that such idea (time traveling) is absurd and must be dismissed , no ifs no buts. This is when scientists failed to realize that the mathematical solution (ie, time-traveling) is just a mathematical construct only and has no correspondence at all to some yet unobserved physical reality. The dismissal of such absurd idea (time traveling) doesn’t mean that general relativity is wrong, since all its predictions has stood the test of time since it was first proposed by Einstein. It’s predictions has never been proven wrong in almost 100 years to date. Scientists have somehow, equate this undisputed predictive power of general relativity to mean that every prediction it makes (even how nonsense that it might be), must correspond to reality. This is where the mistake comes in, when one substitute mathematics for physical reality. You can eliminate nonsense by using commonsense.
The models in the IPCC are similar. Mathematics dictate to us of what we should expect , even if the prediction is inconsistent with observations (of which there are many examples).
Okay I believe you about the mathematics. But I see news clips of the polar ice melting and those poor bears drowning while trying to catch food. Australia is burning and drying up.
Now the Maori party are saying they will support the bill, according to Te Ururoa Flavell, no matter what there members think. Wow good on yah Maori Party I thought one of their driving principles was to listen to their members…apparently not, disgraceful.
@James99 Woe is NZ then. Grr.
Spud “Australia is burning and drying up” is not an argument on its own for AGW. Australia’s climate has been becoming hotter and more dry for thousands of years.
@Tim Can you confirm you accept the arguments for human induced climate change?
@Tim – I didn’t want to list them all. I do think that temperatures are rising and disasters are getting worse and that it’s caused by humans altering the environment.
I can’t comment on the climate becoming hotter and more dry for thousands of years so I’ll take your word for it.
The original story has vanished from Stuff interestingly.
The whole thing about is climate change hapening is kinda beside the point… We know that the tempreture is rising, we know that the ice caps and glaciers are melting. Wether it’s because of greenhouse gases or because it’s just the lifecycle of the Earth is a stupid argument because we can never know for sure. The real question is, do people want to risk life on Earth because we don’t have any proof? We have to do what we can to atleast try and save the planet, maybe all goes well ad nothing goes wrong and maybe all doesn’t go well, but do you want to take the risk and watch and wait instead of trying? I don’t. (PS I’m not a greeny either)
@Hob. The original material has been subsumed into the wider article. Interestingly Newsroom is reporting that Dr Sharples said on the way into Question Time that he did not know whether there was widespread support in the Maori Party for the bill. It does appear that the Maori Party will support this Bill, but the long term cost to them as a party for doing so may be very high indeed.
Are any of the Gallery asking Hone Harawira if he would be voting for the bill if he was at Parliament?
It seems that the MP are casting only 4 votes because both Turia (hospital, for previously reported elective surgery) and Harawira are away.
n0exit,
The real question is, do people want to risk life on Earth because we don’t have any proof?
This reminds me a lot of the ‘Argument from Evil’ whereby even the smallest risk of an eternity in Hell is enough to convince someone that worshipping god is the correct thing to do (Ask Pascal’s Bookie…) But, I think that’s largely an irrelevant argument for Climate Change.
Even the most dire predictions, derived from the most pessimistic assumptions, from the IPCC don’t produce an outcome of the eradication of life on earth, or anything even close to it.
The question we need to be asking is; How does the cost of ‘fixing’ the climate now, compare to the cost of living with the results if we do nothing (or more accurately, less)?