Bob Jones always has a different perspective.
Bob Jones always has a different perspective.
This entry was posted on Sunday, October 4th, 2009 at 1:00 pm and is filed under blogs. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Bob Jones also picked Shane Cameron last night.
Don’t get too excited by his predictions.
But of course Bob Jones is looking at the lessons of History which didnt apply for Tua V Cameron.
Now who was the party that wants to change the current MMP system ? And sooner rather than later
I remember when Bob was campaigning for his NZ Party. I attended a meeting and during his speech he told us how floating the exchange would solve the current account deficit.
Come question time I asked him how that worked. I was genuinely interested. He said he didn’t know and it turned out the policy was hatched while having a slash beside an economist.
I don’t think he got that one right either.
Oh, and I wasn’t allowed anymore questions.
Come to think of it, the only politician who has ever given me more than one question was Helen Clark.
He could be right on this one. Its probabaly unlikely but lets hope it does happen.
I like what he had so say
I hope he’s right. 
I agree with Sir Bob, Goff is a wonderful leader and an articulate man. Labour 2011!, no, wait, Labour landslide victory 2011!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Luc @ 2.36 To be fair to Bob and at the risk of going off thread, the vast majority of people who had thought about the exchange rate/current account issue thought he was right. We thought there would be a self balancing factor. We were wrong – probably because a much higher proportion of trades were speculative than anyone anticipated at the time.
I’ve disagreed with Sir Bob more times than I’ve had hot dinners, but he may be right this time.
I’ll be especially interested which party the Maori party align with next election.
Indeed, Trevor, that inconvenient Law of Unintended Consequences!
It’s a good lesson in favour of incrementalism in government.
To return to the topic, I thought Bob’s analysis was pretty good, but I wonder what, if any, major points of difference will emerge to favour Labour. It’s not often I agree with Hooten but his Labour-lite label seems pretty apt.
Cal. Maybe the Maori Party will have increasingly hard work to convince the bulk of their backers in 2011?
The key to Sir Bob’s comments is the balancing of MMP. Imagine what would have happened had NZF gained just 1% more of the vote in 2008?
[...] Trevor Mallard blogs a column by Sir Bob Jones where he predicts Phil Goff will win the 2011 election, and Winston will make it back. [...]
It reads to me like Bob Jones wants to get rid of MMP and is trying to scare right winge-ers. Do we know what Bob Jones thinks of MMP? My recollection is that he is opposed to it.
Sorry Bob, but this is priceless…
“There’s a belief frequently expressed to me that Tua will win because sooner or later he’s bound to land a bomb on Cameron.
Boxing is never that simple.
First, Cameron is a very tough and determined individual who has shown often enough that he can take a punch.
Second, to actually land a big punch, specifically Tua’s much vaunted left hook, is not an easy thing to do, more so when one’s opponent is alert to its threat and guards against it.
Cameron does that naturally with left hooks and his more than two dozen bouts have revealed a vulnerability only to left jabs and straight rights from long armed, rangy opponents.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/boxing/news/article.cfm?c_id=23&objectid=10600765
Yeah right.
I really don’t think it will matter – it’s unlikely that they’ll be in parliament next term.
No, you were wrong because you listened to a bunch of economists who were working with a theory that doesn’t take account of reality.
Ross Gittens puts it succinctly Self-righting markets and other shibboleths
Also from Bob:
“… that to prevail, a competitor must set the agenda and be the boss. He must ensure his opponent is always reacting to his initiatives and not allow him space or time to present his own.”
I think Tua did exactly that. Incidentally, can anyone picture John Key setting an agenda? Launching initiatives? Seizing the moment? Lol.
mjwkiwi asks: “Do we know what Bob Jones thinks of MMP? My recollection is that he is opposed to it.”
I think so, mjw, judging by the first line of Bob’s article:
“Political journalists are given to protesting that the public don’t understand the ghastly MMP system.”
I don’t think Bob’s got this right. I think he’s underestimating John Key’s political skills and Teflon likeability.
He recently ignored the wishes of 87% of voters in the smacking referendum, yet in the next poll his party’s support went up 4%.
This suggests he had calculated, aided no doubt by his pollsters, that this issue was not as big as many of us had thought.
John Key has already made one career (not to mention $40 million) out of making the right bets at the right time, and has now shown a similar talent in politics on several occasions.
He is also unencumbered by principle or the need for urgency in achieving the Roger Douglas-inspired goal of closing the trans-Tasman wage gap, and is arguably further to the left than Phil Goff.
In other words, he’s got plenty of room to bribe voters with whatever it takes.
Oops, I should have made that clearer…
When I said ‘I don’t think Bob’s got this right’, I meant his prediction that National would lose in 2011, not his comment about journalists.
I also don’t agree that Key’s speech problems will be a major issue, since unfortunately most New Zealanders are similarly afflicted.
Bob’s right that Key and Goff are about equally bland, but this should play into the hands of ‘the devil we know’.
If it comes down to a bribing contest, the party that was set up to oppose socialism is, in its present incarnation, more than capable of out-socialising Labour if that’s what it takes to win.
In that, Key loses nothing by comparison with Muldoon and Holyoake.
What Jones failed to mention is that Labour hasn’t got any new policies and probably won’t have by the next election, which they need to have. All they have got so far is attacking National and promising to repeal various laws, which is not policy.
It’s their job to attack the government and it’s too soon to be releasing policy. I think Labour has been working hard.
Hey its possible
. Never write of Winston if he gets 7% its all on. Keys and his kingmaker mates from the round table will have a fall out very soon as they will want him to deregulate the Labour market and the economy in general at a rate Keys cannot deliver on. Trevor in relation to the bid re Maori TV and broadcasting rights you are wrong. Firstly never call anyone stupid , secondly TVNZ just let the NZ public down over the Commonwealth games issue. Thirdly who make you the quality controller on Commentary, Mexted has been in the job a while now and he’s still crap. Good on Maori TV , it delivered on ANZAC day as well as Waitangi. If it gets the rights they will also deliver .
Your anti Maori rants will consign you to a political has been. Time to get out Trev .
Bob Jones has identified the key factors to bear in mind coming up to 2011.
Good Lord, I almost agree with him. My world has been thrown upside down. I usually pride myself on disagreeing with Bob Jones.
There is a whole lot of ‘IF’ coming off Jones’s predictions obviously: ‘if Winston Peters performs well campaigning from 2010 onwards’ being the most important condition. But his points about MMP are spot on.
Two points favouring a good result for Labour in 2011 that Bob Jones missed, in my opinion:
The first is that Labour is performing better in opposition than the National party did 1999 to 2002 (but let’s not damn Labour’s caucus with such faint praise). Keep up the good work, and give us more please.
The other point, I may have missed it, but John Key hasn’t really done anything yet, and it has almost been twelve months. There is no positive place the public can point to and say ‘that is an example of Key’s prime ministership. That’s leadership’. I still can’t tell why Mr Key wanted to be Prime Minister.