This is the first in a series that I will post this week.

Rural New Zealand’s extensive influence on the National Government will be on display when Steven Joyce finally releases his plan to roll out ultrafast broadband fibre (expected announcement within days).

I predict that the announcement will look quite different to the original pledge to deliver ultrafast broadband to 75% of New Zealanders in their homes. Firstly, it won’t be to their homes. Why? Because doing that would cost a lot more than the $1.5 billion proposed. Even with an equivalent amount raised from the private sector.

Secondly, the aim to reach 75% of New Zealanders will also be out the window. Why? Because the National Party made a big mistake when formulating its big ticket campaign pledge. It should never have left out the rural sector.

I predict Joyce will come up with a new proposal that on the face of it is about more equitable distribution of broadband across the country, including the rural sector, where our primary production increasingly depends on us having a technologically competitive edge and where the social benefits of broadband access will make such a difference to rural communities.

So we’ll likely see a promise to roll out broadband more widely across the country. I have no criticism with that. But if it does, what happens to the campaign pledge?

The people who thought they’d get ultrafast broadband to their homes soon will be told they have to wait. Schools, hospitals and businesses will be further prioritised. If that’s the case, then it begins to look more and more like the Labour Government’s plan; the Broadband Investment Fund. A crucial difference is that Steven Joyce will be banking on private sector investment to get the greater reach, and somehow to get an immediate return on his government’s investment. Given the long delays in making the announcement I suspect he’s finding that a bit of a problem.

I imagine he’s discovering that when government promises to commit money to a big infrastructure programme it has to actually invest in it on a long term basis and not see an immediate return. When our forefathers decided to invest in major roading and rail networks throughout this country were they the result of public private partnerships? Or were they a decision by government to invest in the coutry’s future. And bear the short to medium term cost for the long term good?

And here’s another dilemma.

If broadband is going to be rolled out in the rural sector in the short term it puts Telecom firmly in the frame for that rollout. Telecom has made sure it has positioned itself as best placed to rollout broadband because it has a national network. And it does. But it’s a copper network. It doesn’t have the incentive to move fast to rollout broadband fibre. Telecom has a serious brand problem right now. It may not have an adequate skilled workforce. It’s contracting arrangements are in disarray. So Mr Joyce and Mr English, there are a few tricky issues to deal with when contemplating your new piece of infrastructure.

Mr Joyce, if I were you, I’d be thinking about being upfront with the New Zealand people about what you can and can’t do with regards to your big ticket election pledge. And I’d be thinking pretty hard about what approach is best for our nation.

And one more thing. There’s no doubt that broadband is the way of the future. It’s the new highway and will provide the connectivity to take New Zealand forward and enable us to be more competitive, more creative and more connected to each other. But there’s more to this than the physical highway. What goes on the highway and where the highway is going really matters.

And your government is not engaged with that.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 1st, 2009 at 12:54 pm and is filed under comms & IT, infrastructure. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.