Sitting in Parliament during Question Time over the last few weeks we have been treated to a daily diet of Crosby Textor messages from Bill English. As ever they are at best trite, at worst plain untrue. I have a grudging admiration for Bill English’s discipline in reciting them day after day, but really he could be a bit more creative than just saying them over and over again. He is the only National MP showing real commitment to using them. Others are simply not getting them into every sentence.
For the benefit of those who have not tuned in lately, the current Crosby Textor approved phrases are
- ” the sharp edges of the recession”
- ” the road to recovery”
- ” ten years of economic mismanagement” (oddly often mentioned at the same time as New Zealand having one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world…)
- ” we cannot turn back the tide of the global recession”
Today’s effort from Bill English deserves special attention as he manages all of them in one go. Well done Bill, a special commemorative Koala will be on its way to you from Mark and Lynton.
Unfortunately thats not all they are up to.
So June/July 2009 Bill English reckons Labour mis-managed the economy, while December 2008 Bill English reckons they did a pretty good job.
Once again: http://blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/audrey-young/2008/12/18/things-must-be-bad/?c_id=1501219
Which Bill to trust, December 2008 or June/July 2009? Who knows? I wonder if Bill knows.
I like Crosby:
Bing Crosby singing “White Christmas”
David Crosby also.
“oddly often mentioned at the same time as New Zealand having one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world…”
So Grant what exactly would Labour be doing differently if you were still in Government to mitigate the recession driven job losses ?
Trevor, “Unfortunately thats not all they are up to.” Tell us more …
“oddly often mentioned at the same time as New Zealand having one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world”
Is there a possible link between drop in unemployment under the Labour government and the massive number of Kiwi’s escaping to Australia during the same time period ? ( http://www.interest.co.nz/images/NetMigrationAustralia.gif ) Interesting reversal after the 2008 election it seems.
From memory while our unemployment figures were down – I remember reading that our Sickness benefit recipients were up considerably – no need to keep popping into the WINZ office you see. Add to that the HUGE number of people leaving the country under the Labour watch – then the figures just dont seem so hot.
Actually Elvis I’ve just checked the unemployment figures from 1998 until March 2009, as well as the emigration rates for the same period, as provided by Statistics New Zealand. There is not a relationship between the numbers.
Essentially, in my judgement, there isn’t enough emigration to explain the dramatic drop in unemployment under the last government. The staggering improvement in unemployment rates must have been caused by other factors. You can check the numbers yourself at Infoshare http://www.stats.govt.nz/infoshare/. I would have liked to check further but the unemployment statistics provided only go from June 1998 to March 2009.
I will note, in a strange bit coincidence, your complaint about emigration actually connects directly to Crosby Textor talking points provided to the National party for the last election. Which neatly ties up with Mr Robertson’s post.
Hello Bikerkiwi
I’ve gone back to Statistic New Zealand, summed the information provided on Infoshare relating to unemployment and sickness benefits together for the years offered 1990 and 2007. There is a clear overall drop in total, so my conclusion is the unemployed were not shuffled off onto the sickness benefit to artificially lower unemployment numbers. Again emigration figures remain too low to have had an ongoing effect. Please feel free to check the figures at http://www.stats.govt.nz/infoshare/ yourself.
This does again tie into a Crosby Textor talking point for the 2008 election, again tying into Mr Robertson’s original post.
Thanks for that considered response Sean. You might like to look at some analysis we did last year at interest.co.nz on this issue. The numbers are interesting.
“Analysis by interest.co.nz of migration and employment figures shows net migration to Australia over the last nine years matches almost exactly the drop in the number of unemployed in New Zealand over the same period. A chart showing this relationship is on the left.
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2008/04/17/video-are-we-exporting-our-unemployment/ ”
Certainly the recent slow down in migration to Australia is more likely to be a result of a slow down in the Australian economy and not a simple change in government here.
Thanks for your response to me Elvis. An initial glance at your data indicates that a closer comparison with mine should be had. However, it may be some hours before I get a chance.
I do agree with your assumption that the Australian economy current condition probably has had an effect on emigration here beyond what any of our politicians can do.
Hi Elvis, back again.
I have looked at the graph you referred me to, and for those coming in late – the graph compares the reduction in claims on New Zealand Unemployment benefit to the numbers migrating to Australia from New Zealand between 2000 and 2008.
Now, for New Zealand emigration to Australia is important. Annually, just doing an eyeball over the figures, Australian emigration is around 50% to 60% of total emigration dependent on the year. This is normal. However, during the years on the graph the net migration was 108,482 in New Zealand’s favour. These new migrants added to the 388,200 increase in total employed in New Zealand from 2000-2008.
So, some New Zealanders went to Australia from 2000-2008, the positions they left, and many others, were filled by other workers. Therefore, the last government did lower unemployment.
So, in answer to your original question – is there a link between Australian emigration and lowering unemployment under Labour – no the statistics don’t support a correlation as far as I can see.
Again, all numbers have been sourced from Infoshare, getting to love that website.
Careful Grant, they’ll probably go you for defamation if recent practice is anything to go by
Jennifer and Brendon Yes