I’m trying to get this blog to be mainly original work but this is a must read for all those interested in politics or economics:- http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2009/06/exclusive-shoddy-work-on-cycleway.html
I’m trying to get this blog to be mainly original work but this is a must read for all those interested in politics or economics:- http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2009/06/exclusive-shoddy-work-on-cycleway.html
This entry was posted on Friday, June 12th, 2009 at 3:35 pm and is filed under Budget, national. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
I am critical of the cyclway as a major “recession busting” policy, as it seemed to be put forward after the job summit. However, I still think it’s a damn good idea and a worthy way to spend $50 million. After all, cycling is a pretty sustaianble means of transportation – whoever uses the paths the money will help build.
Perhaps it doing poorly in a benefit-cost ratio is more of an indictment upon how the BCRs are calculated than on the project itself? I’m still trying to figure out how the Waterview Connection creates a billion and a half dollars of time-savings benefits, for example.
Jarbury: I largely agree – I think its a nice thing to have, but an utter joke as a recession busting policy. My beef here is that it hasn’t been subjected to any form of analysis whatsoever. For example, it didn’t do poorly in a benefit-cost analysis – there just wasn’t one done. When you’re spending $50 million, that’s just not good enough.
No cost-benefit analysis. Ah, I see.
So in the end, it might have actually done quite well out of a cost-benefit analysis, but we’ll never know because one wasn’t even done. Pretty shocking.
Don’t knock the cycleway down just because it’s attached to our grinning, clueless PM. It was not his idea, therefore it is not doomed to fail.
A cycleway gives people a reason to come to NZ. Already people come from overseas specifically to cycle the central Otago rail-trail. It is hugely popular and it brings in money.
$50 million is nothing. I will bet any sum that a cycle-way running the length of the country built for $50 m will pay for itself within 5 years. That would only take 10,000 cyclists per year coming here specifically to cycle and spending just $1000 on their stay. We get 2.4 m tourists as it is. This venture is completely feasible.
JK has attached his name to it because he is [edited - offensive and we are trying to lift tone - Trevor]
“$50 million is nothing. I will bet any sum that a cycle-way running the length of the country built for $50 m will pay for itself within 5 years.”
Hi Jake
I agree, I’d like a cycle way under those conditions. But the truth is $50 million would get anything like that amount of cycle way.
“Building cycle tracks as part of the Government’s proposed national cycle way could cost as much as 100 thousand dollars a kilometre on moderate terrain.”
from Morning Report on 10 Jun
And this has been knowledge that has been in the public domain for a fair while. Again from Morning Report.
“Cycleway may cost at least 6 times the govt’s initial estimates.”
from Morning Report on 23 Mar
If you want to listen to the broadcasts, just follow this link http://www.radionz.co.nz/ and enter ‘Cycleway’ into the search box.
The plan may have sounded good in a meeting room, but it should have been costed properly, and the lack of cost benefit analysis is, quite frankly, inept.
Good work Idiot/Savant
I’m critical of the cycle way because it does not go far enough. It misses out the Chathams and Antarctica. Seriously though, if this is all the Keystone Cops can come up with to head off the recession, they’re pathetic. The English Patient and Shonkey need to put on six thinking hats. Apparently de Bono is in the country.
As Idiot/Savant points out, this may well be true. What’s bizarre is that nobody’s even bothered to do the crude analysis you’ve done above.
$50 million is an obsolete forecast. I am surprised subscribers are referring to it.
We were told in the news this week that the cycle track would cost $100,000 per kilometre and more when it gets steep.
I have not heard a fully revised estimate but there will be one around.
The govt has apparently budgetted the $50 million – but they are expecting local govt to form cooperative ventures. Under Rodney Hide, I assume that the councils would need to hold referendum before doing so! This is not core local govt business.
“I have not heard a fully revised estimate but there will be one around.”
Not in the government’s advice, there’s not. But that’s because the plan changed from a cycleway the length of the country to a collection of “great rides of New Zealand”.
This cycleway thing excites me as as much as cold porridge on a winter’s morning. On a good day (!), I feel the NZ public is taken for a long ride over the proposal.