Red Alert

Mt Albert – What the Pundits Say

Posted by on May 12th, 2009

Parties don’t share their polling but David Farrar has done a useful post on how he sees it. His analysis might have informed the ipredict shift to Labour since just before the selections. Currently predicting Labour 43% and Nat 34%.


3 Responses to “Mt Albert – What the Pundits Say”

  1. jarbury says:

    I guess iPredict would have changed quite a bit today after Steven Joyce’s announcement on the Waterview Connection?

  2. Trevor Mallard says:

    Almost no change yesterday or so far today – I think that most people had worked out that National were lining up to ditch the tunnel – and after seeing early polling Joyce worked out they didn’t have much to lose.

  3. Regarding the iPredict stocks: MTA.WIN.LABOUR just keeps building up, and MTA.WIN.NATIONAL keeps dropping.

    Unfortunately, there’s been very little trading on MTA.LEE.LAB & MTA.LEE.NAT in the last month, so I wouldn’t read too much into those stocks for predicting the candidates’ actual vote-shares—up until about Monday, the prices of WIN.LABOUR & WIN.NATIONAL seemed to imply something like a 10-percentage-point 95% confidence interval, and the LEE.NAT & LEE.LAB stocks haven’t moved since then—take them with a grain of salt.